Where is the starter market? Where are the O's?

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

There is zero chance that they can go in front of anyone with "They are waiting for the market to come to them." as evidence of collusion and receive a reward.

There’s a lot of antitrust law on this topic.   “Conscious parallelism” is fine.    That’s where you see that the gas station across the street has raised its price to $2.48, and you immediately raise the price of your competing gas station’s price to $2.48.     But if a group of competing gas stations exchange a bunch of information about demand for gas and then all raise their price to $2.48, that becomes a lot more iffy.   I think what MLB did this offseason is in that grey zone.    There’s no explicit price fixing, but there have been presentations made at the owners meetings and GM meetings that might give rise to inferences of collusion.   I’m not an antitrust lawyer and and I don’t pretend to know all the facts here; I’m just saying there may be a case for collusion even if the facts are less blatant than they were in the ‘80’s.

[tntoriole]

So, let's see.  Darvish to the Cubs.  I will guess that Arrieta goes to the Brewers and Cobb goes to the Twins.  Lynn will have suitors that include us, Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Rangers, Angels....am I leaving any out?   Us competing for Lynn will be a reach. 

But I think both of those are going to sign within the next week.

Which then moves us down to the Cashner, Vargas, Jaime Garcia group....more likely where we play.  

[Frobby]

8 hours ago, wildcard said:

JMO but I think the O's are looking for one year deals on Vargas, Cashner, and Tillman. All have then had injuries and the O's don't want to pay for multi years for a guy who arm might be close to wore out.

Thing is, it’s not like we’re going to have three new starters ready for the majors in 2019.    Get three guys on one-year contracts and (1) they’ll probably all suck, and (2) we’ll be repeating the process for at least two spots in 2019.    I’d rather get 2 good pitchers now, and if it takes 3 year deals, fine.  

[atomic]

18 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Thing is, it’s not like we’re going to have three new starters ready for the majors in 2019.    Get three guys on one-year contracts and (1) they’ll probably all suck, and (2) we’ll be repeating the process for at least two spots in 2019.    I’d rather get 2 good pitchers now, and if it takes 3 year deals, fine.  

If Lynn or Cobb could be signed for 3 year deal they would be signed already. 

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, Frobby said:

Thing is, it’s not like we’re going to have three new starters ready for the majors in 2019.    Get three guys on one-year contracts and (1) they’ll probably all suck, and (2) we’ll be repeating the process for at least two spots in 2019.    I’d rather get 2 good pitchers now, and if it takes 3 year deals, fine.  

The O's might add an option on their offer.  Either vesting or a normal club option.   The O's just see enough risk in Vargas, Cashner and Tillman that they don't want to be stuck with them for the 2nd year if they suck is my guess.

[wildcard]

6 hours ago, cimota said:

If Lynn or Cobb could be signed for 3 year deal they would be signed already. 

Brewers and Twins will go 4 years IMO.

[wildcard]

7 hours ago, tntoriole said:

So, let's see.  Darvish to the Cubs.  I will guess that Arrieta goes to the Brewers and Cobb goes to the Twins.  Lynn will have suitors that include us, Yankees, Mets, Nationals, Rangers, Angels....am I leaving any out?   Us competing for Lynn will be a reach. 

But I think both of those are going to sign within the next week.

Which then moves us down to the Cashner, Vargas, Jaime Garcia group....more likely where we play.  

My guess is that Boras is not coming down from 24-25m on Arrieta.   The Brewers nor the Twins aren't going there..   The Nationals and the Phillies are the only two teams that I think may met Boras price.

Yankees aren't going over the luxury tax.  Mets don't want to give up the draft pick. They also want to see how Matz, Harvey, Lugo and Gseilman  look before deciding on whether to add.  Twins could be in the market for two starters. Blue Jays will add a 5th starter.

[wildcard]

On 2/9/2018 at 9:44 AM, jamalshw said:

 

I think the one added wildcard here is the Jake Odorizzi and Colin McHugh markets. With both names being floated around, they could eat into the markets for Cashner, Vargas, etc. I don't think either will do much to take away targets for the top-4 as they're below them, but they're likely better options than that next class.

 

I agree with this.  Odorizzi as a flyball pitcher looks look a bad fit for the O's, Yankees, Phillies and Blue Jays but a good fit for the Angels.  McHugh looks good a number of places.

The Twins and Brewers did not go over 100m for Darvish so they are a bad fit for Arrieta.  They will probably sign Cobb and Lynn for 4 year deals. 

The Yankees interest in Lynn this morning is overblown.   The have a solid 5 starters plus Chance Adams ready for the majors.  They are 15m below the luxury tax and Cashman wants to keep some room for future moves.  If they add a pitcher its will probably be a swing man for 7m or less.

Arrieta's market still looks like the Nats with Boras trying to interest the  Phillies.

Dodgers need to move Kemp to add a starter if they want to stay under the luxury tax.  I see no takers for Kemp so far. They have Buehler ready for the majors.

Vargas, Cashner, Garcia and McHugh are good targets for the O's, Blue Jays, Phillies, and Twins (for a 2nd starter).  Mets are waiting to see about the health of their starters.   Angels could play in FA but seem more interested in a trade.  

Tillman should sign soon.  He needs to be in camp.  O's are interested if the contract is right.  So are several  other teams.

JMO

 

[Can_of_corn]

21 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I agree with this.  Odorizzi as a flyball pitcher looks look a bad fit for the O's, Yankees, Phillies and Blue Jays but a good fit for the Angels.  McHugh looks good a number of places.

I don't get why folks are so quick to dismiss fly ball pitchers.

Fly ball pitchers:

1. Generally have a higher K rate.
2. Have higher IFFB%
3. Have better HR/FB rate
4. Are better suited to attack fly ball hitters (Swing angle revolution guys)

 

Give me a good fly ball pitcher over an average ground ball pitcher every day.

[wildcard]

44 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't get why folks are so quick to dismiss fly ball pitchers.

Fly ball pitchers:

1. Generally have a higher K rate.
2. Have higher IFFB%
3. Have better HR/FB rate
4. Are better suited to attack fly ball hitters (Swing angle revolution guys)

 

Give me a good fly ball pitcher over an average ground ball pitcher every day.

When its hot at Camden Yards the ball needs to stay on the ground as much as possible.  Fly balls carry out way too much.  They don't even need to be hit that well sometimes.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

When its hot at Camden Yards the ball needs to stay on the ground as much as possible.  Fly balls carry out way too much.  They don't even need to be hit the well sometimes.

 

Interesting rebuttal.

 

 

[Luke-OH]

59 minutes ago, wildcard said:

When its hot at Camden Yards the ball needs to stay on the ground as much as possible.  Fly balls carry out way too much.  They don't even need to be hit that well sometimes.

Then you should be cool with Lucas Long getting a rotation spot, only allowed 18% flyballs (that made it out of the infield).

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's might add an option on their offer.  Either vesting or a normal club option.   The O's just see enough risk in Vargas, Cashner and Tillman that they don't want to be stuck with them for the 2nd year if they suck is my guess.

I see the three cases as very different in terms of length of deal.

Cashner may be a mediocre pitcher, but he’s coming off a good season and he’s 31 years old.    My guess is someone bites the bullet and gives him a three year deal.   At a minimum, I think he gets two years and a vesting option.   

Vargas is 35 and at that age isn’t getting a three-year deal, especially after missing the better part of 2015-16 with TJ surgery.    But otherwise he’s been pretty durable and reliable and he’ll get two years from someone after a good 2017.

Tillman has red flags all over and will be lucky to get a major league deal.     If he does, it’ll be for a year with a low base salary.    If there’s a team option in there, that’s for the benefit of the team, not Tillman.   

[mdbdotcom]

I don't think Tillman can afford to wait around for a good deal. He needs to be in some team's camp the day pitchers and catchers report so he can get some eyeballs on him before all the free agent signings and trades are done. That could mean accepting a minor league deal with a spring training invite or a major league deal at or near minimum with incentives.

He has a lot to prove and will need all the time he can get to prove it.

[orange23]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

When its hot at Camden Yards the ball needs to stay on the ground as much as possible.  Fly balls carry out way too much.  They don't even need to be hit that well sometimes.

Whether it was the heat or just our atrocious pitching last year, we gave up the second-most home runs last year in the majors. Like you guys, I don't want to continue that trend. I know it's nearly impossible to not give up HRs in Bmore but we can try to find pitchers who do a better job of keeping the ball in the park. I think Lance Lynn (coming off a decent year and historically doesn't give up the long ball), Alex Cobb (similar year to Lynn's and has experience in AL East), and Jason Vargas (the least attractive 2017 of the three listed despite being an all-star; however, he is probably the most realistic) are the best and most realistic options we can find. I'll take any of them but I like Cobb the most. We shall see what transpires but I trust Duquette will make a good choice.