A look at some past Opening Day rotations

[Frobby]

All this uncertainty about the no. 3-5 spots in the rotation got me to thinking about some of the past years where we had similar issues.

The first one that came to mind was the 2004 rotation.     Sidney Ponson was our returning “ace,” and he won on Opening Day.   He was followed by Eric DuBose (previous major league experience: 10 starts), Kurt Ainsworth (15 starts), Matt Riley (5 starts) and Erik Bedard (0 starts).    Eventually, DuBose, Ainsworth and Riley were supplanted, with Rodrigo Lopez rejoining the rotation from the bullpen and Daniel Cabrera being called up after a few AA starts.    Riley got recalled for September and made another 5 starts then.   In all, the O’s used 12 starters that year, including Steve Borkowski, Bruce Chen, Rick Bauer, John Parrish and John Maine.

2009 was another very unsettled year.   Jeremy Guthrie was the Opening Day starter, followed by Koji Uehara (0 previous major league starts), Alfredo Simon (1), Mark Hendrickson (okay, he had experience, he was just terrible), and Adam Eaton (ditto).   Eaton was signed on March 1 after being released by the Phillies; he lasted until May 22 when we released him.   Simon was hurt after 2 starts and replaced by Brad Bergesen (0 prior starts), who had a very good year for us.   Koji had a DL stint in late May/early June and was shut down for the year in late June.   In addition to Bergesen, we debuted Hernandez, Berken, Tillman and Matusz as starters that season, and also gave starts to Rich Hill (who had been on the DL to start the year) and Chris Waters.   Overall, we gave 94 starts to pitchers who had never pitched in a major league game (including 12 by Koji).

2012 was another year that didn’t finish anything like it started, rotation-wise.   Jake Arrieta got the ball on Opening Day, followed by Tommy Hunter, Jason Hammel, Brian Matusz and Wei-Yin Chen.    Arrieta was coming off surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow, Matusz was coming off one of the worst seasons in history and Chen had never pitched in the majors.    Hunter was yanked from the rotation after a June 19 start, Matusz after a July 1 start, and Arrieta after a July 5 start.     By the end of the year, Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman and Joe Saunders were in those spots; along the way, Zach Britton, Steve Johnson, Dana Eveland and Randy Wolf also got the nod.

Bottom line: if you’re an Orioles, fan, you should have a strong sense of deja vu.    Let’s hope this turns out more like 2012 than 2004 or 2009.

 

[clapdiddy]

Perhaps Mesa and Cortes aren't bad options after all?  

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, clapdiddy said:

Perhaps Mesa and Cortes aren't bad options after all?  

At this point, why not, break out the young arms and roll with them.

[Aglets]

Mesa has strong numbers, but nothing at the MLB level yet and how many innings could we realistically hope to get out of him?

[crawjo]

If the Orioles were rebuilding, you would still want them to sign at least one veteran starter just to take some pressure off everybody else. Maybe somebody like Andrew Cashner. But this whole thing is looking really bleak right now. 

[Il BuonO]

6 minutes ago, Aglets said:

Mesa has strong numbers, but nothing at the MLB level yet and how many innings could we realistically hope to get out of him?

He had 84 IP over two levels last year so he should be good for 120-140 IP. The Orioles (especially Buck) made a point of saying Bundy was on no restrictions in 2016 after it had been leaked they wanted a cap of 75-80 IP. 

Typically, the general guideline is a 40% increase in workload.

Then, of course there’s this....

https://www.sciencedaily.com/releases/2015/04/150406121354.htm

[jamalshw]

23 minutes ago, clapdiddy said:

Perhaps Mesa and Cortes aren't bad options after all?  

Oh...they're still bad options if we're counting on both in the rotation on Opening Day, but compared to the other choices, I'd rather at least given them the shot. I feel like they at least have more upside in the rotation right now than guys like Wright and Ynoa. If we add nobody (which I still don't buy), then I go with a rotation of: Gausman, Bundy, Castro, Mesa and Cortes. I want to see Wright in the pen and see what he can do once we've committed to him there. The pen is then: Brach, O'Day, Givens, Bleier, Wright for sure. I think there's another LHP (likely Hart) and then Ynoa can compete for the long man spot.

[esmd]

[pastorfan]

53 minutes ago, crawjo said:

If the Orioles were rebuilding, you would still want them to sign at least one veteran starter just to take some pressure off everybody else. Maybe somebody like Andrew Cashner. But this whole thing is looking really bleak right now. 

I'm still trying to understand how anyone can say with a straight face that we are actually trying to contend with a rotation like we have. It is laughable.

[OFFNY]

o

 

The 2009 Orioles broke the Major League record of the 1890 Pittsburgh Alleghenys for the most wins by a starting pitcher making his career Major League debut.

Brad Bergesen, Jason Berken, Brian Matusz, David Hernandez, and Koji Uehara all won their first games ever pitched in the Majors that season.

The previous record was 4, set by the 1890 Alleghenys.

 

o

[SteveA]

Thanks for the perspective.   I don't think we were as down on the incoming rotation those years as we are this year.

Part of it is, of course, that this year's batch is probably WORSE and less experienced than all those.

But I think part of it is also that we allowed ourselves to hope that guys like Ainsworth or Bergesen could be good.   I think we are all a lot more educated statistically now than we were, especially in 2004 and 2009, and less willing to entertain the idea that a kid who is not a top 100 prospect could be a savior.    Sometimes knowledge is a dangerous thing.   In 1988 you could let the optimism of spring training convince you that Mark Williamson and Jose Bautista and Jay Tibbs and Dave Schmidt could be a good rotation.   All you really had knew about them was their baseball card stat line and you could convince your self that Ray Miller could turn chicken---- into something better.

Now today we are so knowledgable about what every guy throws, how he projects, players with his similarity scores, his peripherals, etc... that grey area where you could imagine a bunch of nobodies morphing into a real pitching staff is gone.  

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, Aglets said:

Mesa has strong numbers, but nothing at the MLB level yet and how many innings could we realistically hope to get out of him?

He threw 84 last year I believe, plus a couple playoffs outing so around 100. I’d say they’d let him go 150 or so if he earns that many.  He has the stuff to be a MLB starter, FB command needs to improve from last year though.

edit: Just want to make clear, the “if he earns that many” is a pretty big IF.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

Thanks for the perspective.   I don't think we were as down on the incoming rotation those years as we are this year.

Part of it is, of course, that this year's batch is probably WORSE and less experienced than all those.

But I think part of it is also that we allowed ourselves to hope that guys like Ainsworth or Bergesen could be good.   I think we are all a lot more educated statistically now than we were, especially in 2004 and 2009, and less willing to entertain the idea that a kid who is not a top 100 prospect could be a savior.    

To be clear, Ainsworth was a BA top 100 prospect four years in a row, and had a 3.82 ERA for the Giants in 11 starts the year we acquired him.    We had every reason to expect him to be good, but arm injuries did him in.

I think another difference between then and now is that we’re not as desperate to believe that we can pull off the inside straight.   

[mdbdotcom]

I'd rather watch Cortes, Mesa Jr. and Ynoa learn at the major league level than watch Tillman, Cashner and Vargas carry us to an 82-win season and leave us in the same predicament for 2019.

[tntoriole]

4 hours ago, Frobby said:

All this uncertainty about the no. 3-5 spots in the rotation got me to thinking about some of the past years where we had similar issues.

The first one that came to mind was the 2004 rotation.     Sidney Ponson was our returning “ace,” and he won on Opening Day.   He was followed by Eric DuBose (previous major league experience: 10 starts), Kurt Ainsworth (15 starts), Matt Riley (5 starts) and Erik Bedard (0 starts).    Eventually, DuBose, Ainsworth and Riley were supplanted, with Rodrigo Lopez rejoining the rotation from the bullpen and Daniel Cabrera being called up after a few AA starts.    Riley got recalled for September and made another 5 starts then.   In all, the O’s used 12 starters that year, including Steve Borkowski, Bruce Chen, Rick Bauer, John Parrish and John Maine.

2009 was another very unsettled year.   Jeremy Guthrie was the Opening Day starter, followed by Koji Uehara (0 previous major league starts), Alfredo Simon (1), Mark Hendrickson (okay, he had experience, he was just terrible), and Adam Eaton (ditto).   Eaton was signed on March 1 after being released by the Phillies; he lasted until May 22 when we released him.   Simon was hurt after 2 starts and replaced by Brad Bergesen (0 prior starts), who had a very good year for us.   Koji had a DL stint in late May/early June and was shut down for the year in late June.   In addition to Bergesen, we debuted Hernandez, Berken, Tillman and Matusz as starters that season, and also gave starts to Rich Hill (who had been on the DL to start the year) and Chris Waters.   Overall, we gave 94 starts to pitchers who had never pitched in a major league game (including 12 by Koji).

2012 was another year that didn’t finish anything like it started, rotation-wise.   Jake Arrieta got the ball on Opening Day, followed by Tommy Hunter, Jason Hammel, Brian Matusz and Wei-Yin Chen.    Arrieta was coming off surgery to remove bone chips in his elbow, Matusz was coming off one of the worst seasons in history and Chen had never pitched in the majors.    Hunter was yanked from the rotation after a June 19 start, Matusz after a July 1 start, and Arrieta after a July 5 start.     By the end of the year, Miguel Gonzalez, Chris Tillman and Joe Saunders were in those spots; along the way, Zach Britton, Steve Johnson, Dana Eveland and Randy Wolf also got the nod.

Bottom line: if you’re an Orioles, fan, you should have a strong sense of deja vu.    Let’s hope this turns out more like 2012 than 2004 or 2009.

 

Man, we have had some horrific rotations.    So bad I had blocked them out of my mind...PTSD from remembering them...lol.