Worse contract-Hosmer or Davis

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, bpilktree67 said:

Because War loves Heyward why that stat by itself is useless.  There is no baseball person that things Heyward is even in the same category as Manny.  

You mean the same metric that has Eric Hosmer (or Jonathan Schoop) worth more last year than Heyward has been worth in 2016 and 2017 combined?  By bb-ref's flavor of WAR Mychal Givens was worth as much as Jason Heyward last year. If Heyward were an Oriole he'd have been tied with Givens for 5th-best player on a 75-win team by rWAR.  But sure, WAR is useless because it loves Heyward.

[Luke-OH]

Not going after bpilktree67 here, just something I see all the time when people talk about baseball here, on twitter, in real life, and on other baseball sites.

I see people all the time using WAR to make their case for a player or against a player, but then saying they don't believe it for another player. Also selectively hopping back and forth between fWAR and bWAR as is convenient for one's narrative.

If you selectively use WAR, you are doing it wrong.

It's fine to question the underlying assumptions and metrics that make up the WAR calculation. Maybe you think the defensive adjustment for playing CF instead of RF is either too big or too small. Maybe you aren't thrilled by how defensive value is captured. Maybe you disagree with how much control a pitcher has over a certain batted ball event. Those are all fine and things people who seriously use WAR consider all the time.

If you aren't going to use WAR, then at least use some context-adjusted metric and additionally for pitchers you might want to at least consider that a pitcher doesn't have complete control over batted ball outcomes.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Luke-OH said:

Not going after bpilktree67 here, just something I see all the time when people talk about baseball here, on twitter, in real life, and on other baseball sites.

I see people all the time using WAR to make their case for a player or against a player, but then saying they don't believe it for another player. Also selectively hopping back and forth between fWAR and bWAR as is convenient for one's narrative.

If you selectively use WAR, you are doing it wrong.

It's fine to question the underlying assumptions and metrics that make up the WAR calculation. Maybe you think the defensive adjustment for playing CF instead of RF is either too big or too small. Maybe you aren't thrilled by how defensive value is captured. Maybe you disagree with how much control a pitcher has over a certain batted ball event. Those are all fine and things people who seriously use WAR consider all the time.

If you aren't going to use WAR, then at least use some context-adjusted metric and additionally for pitchers you might want to at least consider that a pitcher doesn't have complete control over batted ball outcomes.

I think that it's valid to question the underlying assumptions baked into a particular version of WAR.  For example, I tend to think that bb-ref's version (rWAR) gives a bit too much credit to pitchers for things that their defense did.  Maybe you don't like the positional adjustments.  Maybe you are a Bill James devotee and think that the defense/pitching/offense ratios aren't quite right.

But I completely concur that the right way to critique WAR isn't to say "I know this guy is much better/worse than WAR says, so WAR sucks."  The way to validate a metric isn't to see how closely it conforms to your preconceived notions.  Although if a metric is consistently, wildly off from generally accepted values you need to be skeptical. 

[Tx Oriole]

On 2/18/2018 at 6:11 PM, OriolesMagic83 said:

The Padres giving Hosmer an 8 year deal has to be one of the worst long term deals ever.  It's right up there with Davis's deal.  At least the O's had the excuse they were in their window of contention.  The Padres' best player, Myers, also plays 1B.  By the time the Padres are competitive, Hosmer will basically be James Loney.  Hosmer has had one year of a .850+ OPS.  At least with Davis, you could dream that he would have another .900 OPS year. 

Davis contract is worse because he is on the O's. We as fans have three more years of CD. He will get worse as he ages.  I don't care about Hosmer and or the Padres. 

[DrungoHazewood]

29 minutes ago, Tx Oriole said:

Davis contract is worse because he is on the O's. We as fans have three more years of CD. He will get worse as he ages.  I don't care about Hosmer and or the Padres. 

Five.  He's signed through 2022.  Ages 32-36.

Davis' top bb-ref comps through age 31, with their total value in WAR from 32-36:
Cecil Fielder, 0.7
Dave Kingman, 3.0
Mark McGwire, 28.5
Richie Sexson, -1.2
Roger Maris, 5.9
Tino Martinez, 7.1
Pat Burrell, 2.0
Lee May, 5.3
Nick Swisher, 1.2
Edwin Encarnacion, incomplete - 11.2 from 32-34

Eyeballing that, it looks like the median is somewhere around Lee May.  May was a part of some good Orioles teams despite being a DH with a .290 OBP.  He played because he hit 25 homers a year and had some RBIs in an era that didn't pay so much attention to his .700 OPS and inability to field.  I think that's where we are with Chris Davis.  He's the new Lee May.  Maybe trading some OPS for a better glove, and he'll get playing time because of his contract instead of the fact that modern analysis hadn't been invented yet. 

[webbrick2010]

He'll be dumped or DFA'ed before 2022 (I hope)

I don't expect him to hit above .210 this year, totally washed up, no bat speed left.

[Frobby]

Just now, webbrick2010 said:

He'll be dumped or DFA'ed before 2022 (I hope)

I don't expect him to hit above .210 this year, totally washed up, no bat speed left.

Your hopes are really peculiar, if you actually root for this team.   I hope he plays really well and we have no reason to want to release him.    

Now, am I worried that he’ll be sub-replacement and the O’s won’t have the guts to release him before his contract expires?     Sure I do.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Five.  He's signed through 2022.  Ages 32-36.

Davis' top bb-ref comps through age 31, with their total value in WAR from 32-36:
Cecil Fielder, 0.7
Dave Kingman, 3.0
Mark McGwire, 28.5
Richie Sexson, -1.2
Roger Maris, 5.9
Tino Martinez, 7.1
Pat Burrell, 2.0
Lee May, 5.3
Nick Swisher, 1.2
Edwin Encarnacion, incomplete - 11.2 from 32-34

Eyeballing that, it looks like the median is somewhere around Lee May.  May was a part of some good Orioles teams despite being a DH with a .290 OBP.  He played because he hit 25 homers a year and had some RBIs in an era that didn't pay so much attention to his .700 OPS and inability to field.  I think that's where we are with Chris Davis.  He's the new Lee May.  Maybe trading some OPS for a better glove, and he'll get playing time because of his contract instead of the fact that modern analysis hadn't been invented yet. 

We just have to get Mark McGwire to be Davis' trainer and everything will work out well.  

[atomic]

33 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Your hopes are really peculiar, if you actually root for this team.   I hope he plays really well and we have no reason to want to release him.    

Now, am I worried that he’ll be sub-replacement and the O’s won’t have the guts to release him before his contract expires?     Sure I do.

He won't be released as long as Angelos is the owner.  He could be batting .111 and he will be our starting first baseman. 

[jabba72]

6 minutes ago, cimota said:

He won't be released as long as Angelos is the owner.  He could be batting .111 and he will be our starting first baseman. 

Pretty sure he will be released or benched if he further regresses this year. 

[Tony-OH]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Not going after bpilktree67 here, just something I see all the time when people talk about baseball here, on twitter, in real life, and on other baseball sites.

I see people all the time using WAR to make their case for a player or against a player, but then saying they don't believe it for another player. Also selectively hopping back and forth between fWAR and bWAR as is convenient for one's narrative.

If you selectively use WAR, you are doing it wrong.

It's fine to question the underlying assumptions and metrics that make up the WAR calculation. Maybe you think the defensive adjustment for playing CF instead of RF is either too big or too small. Maybe you aren't thrilled by how defensive value is captured. Maybe you disagree with how much control a pitcher has over a certain batted ball event. Those are all fine and things people who seriously use WAR consider all the time.

If you aren't going to use WAR, then at least use some context-adjusted metric and additionally for pitchers you might want to at least consider that a pitcher doesn't have complete control over batted ball outcomes.

Good post. I will say personally, I use rWAR for no other reasons than I use Baseball Reference all the time. I've never been a big believer in pitcher's WAR though but I don't completely dismiss it either. I also think some guys dWAR offset their oWAR too much at times. 

Despite all that, I do like WAR to generally give us how effective a player was during a year. I think some people use it wrong like assuming if a guy is 4 WAR that means four more wins for the team. If its used as a tool along other tools to determine a player's value than I think it's valuable, but it can't be used on it's own.

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Five.  He's signed through 2022.  Ages 32-36.

Davis' top bb-ref comps through age 31, with their total value in WAR from 32-36:
Cecil Fielder, 0.7
Dave Kingman, 3.0
Mark McGwire, 28.5
Richie Sexson, -1.2
Roger Maris, 5.9
Tino Martinez, 7.1
Pat Burrell, 2.0
Lee May, 5.3
Nick Swisher, 1.2
Edwin Encarnacion, incomplete - 11.2 from 32-34

Eyeballing that, it looks like the median is somewhere around Lee May.  May was a part of some good Orioles teams despite being a DH with a .290 OBP.  He played because he hit 25 homers a year and had some RBIs in an era that didn't pay so much attention to his .700 OPS and inability to field.  I think that's where we are with Chris Davis.  He's the new Lee May.  Maybe trading some OPS for a better glove, and he'll get playing time because of his contract instead of the fact that modern analysis hadn't been invented yet. 

I think Davis will be a little better than May. Davis has more power than May and he walks more than May did. The problem I see with those comps is that Sexon is the guy with the most comparable set of skills to Davis. I sure hope Davis outperforms Sexon (32-36) numbers.

[Tx Oriole]

1 hour ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Five.  He's signed through 2022.  Ages 32-36.

Davis' top bb-ref comps through age 31, with their total value in WAR from 32-36:
Cecil Fielder, 0.7
Dave Kingman, 3.0
Mark McGwire, 28.5
Richie Sexson, -1.2
Roger Maris, 5.9
Tino Martinez, 7.1
Pat Burrell, 2.0
Lee May, 5.3
Nick Swisher, 1.2
Edwin Encarnacion, incomplete - 11.2 from 32-34

Eyeballing that, it looks like the median is somewhere around Lee May.  May was a part of some good Orioles teams despite being a DH with a .290 OBP.  He played because he hit 25 homers a year and had some RBIs in an era that didn't pay so much attention to his .700 OPS and inability to field.  I think that's where we are with Chris Davis.  He's the new Lee May.  Maybe trading some OPS for a better glove, and he'll get playing time because of his contract instead of the fact that modern analysis hadn't been invented yet. 

Maybe you are right. 

[Frobby]

9 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

I think Davis will be a little better than May. Davis has more power than May and he walks more than May did. The problem I see with those comps is that Sexon is the guy with the most comparable set of skills to Davis. I sure hope Davis outperforms Sexon (32-36) numbers.

Sexson had some pretty debilitating back issues, if I recall.

[DrungoHazewood]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

Your hopes are really peculiar, if you actually root for this team.   I hope he plays really well and we have no reason to want to release him.    

Now, am I worried that he’ll be sub-replacement and the O’s won’t have the guts to release him before his contract expires?     Sure I do.

I worry about a Ryan Howard situation.  I didn't think Davis would be in that situation, but it's not impossible.  Howard was bad prior to his 5/125 extension kicking in, sub-replacement year after year.  Maybe the worst contract ever, superstar dollars for Rene Gonzales production.  Davis isn't quite in that situation, but his contract is longer and more expensive.  There are a lot of similarities between Ryan Howard circa 2012 and Davis today.  It's hard to eat $80-100M.