What do the starters really need to do for us to contend for a wild card spot?

[Grt 2BA FL Gator]

6 minutes ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

Kind of funny how this has worked out with this core team:

2012: Made the playoffs and made a run

2013: Down year 

2014: Made the playoffs and made a run

2015: Down year

2016: Made the playoffs (could have made a run if Britton pitches )

2017: Down year

2018: ??? 

It's funny because I feel like we've had a similar outlook preseason each of those years. Almost like DD and Buck have stumbled into success. I can't really remember feeling great about the rotation aside from 2014 really. Maybe 2015, but the crap really hit the fan (Norris, Gonzalez, Tillman sucked)

One key difference now though is the strength at the top of the division. The 2nd wild card is huge, because the Yankees and Sox look like juggernauts, but the Jays and Rays are at the very least comparable to us. It definitely allows for more preseason hope. You just get into the game.. Anything can happen.

[Beef Supreme]

3 minutes ago, Babypowder said:

Right, Longoria is clearly the better hitter for their careers, I'll make no case otherwise. I was just musing that I didn't realize he posted a lower wRC+ than Denard friggin Span last year. As for the rest I don't deal in intangibles.

Agreed, hard to imagine Longoria posting a lower wRC+ than Span.

As for intangibles, do you not deal in the Frank Robinson effect on the Orioles' teams of the late 60's through 1971? I get that intangibles are messy business but I don't think it is helpful to ignore them/

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Grt 2BA FL Gator said:

One key difference in this though is the strength of the division. Although, the 2nd wild card is huge, because the Yankees and Sox look like juggernauts, but the Jays and Rays are at the very least comparable to us. The second wild card definitely allows for more preseason hope. You just get into the game.. Anything can happen.

On Paper, did it look like Boston would go from first to last, like they did?

You never never know about this game we love.

[Babypowder]

Just now, Redskins Rick said:

Maybe people put too much faith into metrics?

It's not faith, it is data and quantifiable evidence. I won't say "intangibles" don't exist and have no effect, but they're called intangible for a reason. I believe in nothing based on faith alone. I'll include it in my evaluations when someone smarter than me figures out a way to measure them.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Agreed, hard to imagine Longoria posting a lower wRC+ than Span.

As for intangibles, do you not deal in the Frank Robinson effect on the Orioles' teams of the late 60's through 1971? I get that intangibles are messy business but I don't think it is helpful to ignore them/

I think adding a triple crown winner definitely helps a team get over the hump.

[Tx Oriole]

11 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Fans do appreciate winning.

Some posters in OH has been boldly predicting failure for years, and there was 1 losing season. So yes, once in a while they do get it right.

The attitude in here has shifting from drinking the kool-aid to printing the Wildcard tickets in just a few weeks, it just took them bringing back Tillman and signing Cashner.

I doubt signing Tilly and Cashner is making that big of an impact, but it just goes to show you, how fickle the fan can be.

I don't think it will. 

[Babypowder]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I think adding a triple crown winner definitely helps a team get over the hump.

Drafting Ryan Flaherty in the rule V turned this franchise around. His intangibles turned a perennial loser into the team that won the most games in the AL from 2012-2016. Not coincidentally, they had their first losing season since Flaherty joined the team in 2017, when he was unavailable most of the year and only appeared in 23 games.

[Redskins Rick]

1 minute ago, Babypowder said:

Drafting Ryan Flaherty in the rule V turned this franchise around. His intangibles turned a perennial loser into the team that won the most games in the AL from 2012-2016. Not coincidentally, they had their first losing season since Flaherty joined the team in 2017, when he was unavailable most of the year and only appeared in 23 games.

Good one.

[Hank Scorpio]

10 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

Fans do appreciate winning.

Some posters in OH has been boldly predicting failure for years, and there was 1 losing season. So yes, once in a while they do get it right.

The attitude in here has shifting from drinking the kool-aid to printing the Wildcard tickets in just a few weeks, it just took them bringing back Tillman and signing Cashner.

I doubt signing Tilly and Cashner is making that big of an impact, but it just goes to show you, how fickle the fan can be.

Well, the difference now vs. then is the rise of MFY & Boston - Boston rebuilt with Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Devers, etc... and also splurged on the high end of the pitching market (Price, Sale, Kimbrel.) The Yankees, God help us, have done both.

Both of these teams have pitching staffs that giggle at ours.

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, Hank Scorpio said:

Well, the difference now vs. then is the rise of MFY & Boston - Boston rebuilt with Betts, Bradley, Bogaerts, Benintendi, Devers, etc... and also splurged on the high end of the pitching market (Price, Sale, Kimbrel.) The Yankees, God help us, have done both.

Both of these teams have pitching staffs that giggle at ours.

David Price for 31 million had a WAR of 1.7, seams like an over payment to me.

They had Betts that one year, they still came in last.

Spending lots of money, doesn't always translates into victories.

[Tx Oriole]

17 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Need another starter either Cobb or Lynn.

I would be glad if DD did sign one of them. But doubt that happens. 

[Hank Scorpio]

23 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

On Paper, did it look like Boston would go from first to last, like they did?

You never never know about this game we love.

Didn't hurt that they added David Price and Craig Kimbrel. plus they got 450+ games out of Bogaerts, Betts & Bradley.

Teams with talented young players tend to ascend

[Hank Scorpio]

5 minutes ago, Redskins Rick said:

David Price for 31 million had a WAR of 1.7, seams like an over payment to me.

They had Betts that one year, they still came in last.

Spending lots of money, doesn't always translates into victories.

No, it doesn't. But acquiring or drafting young talented players and then supplementing them with guys like Price, Sale, Kimbrel, etc...

That tends to workout pretty well.

[bpilktree]

44 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Meanwhile, Tampa won 68 games in 2016. They improved by 12 wins by adding to the MLB roster Tommy Hunter and Colby Rasmus, who tallied 129 PAs, missed the month of April and quit after June 19. Some times, teams' records improve despite not adding significant quality to the roster.

 

Span's stats my have been better last year, despite both players posting OPS+ of 100. But career means much more when we are determining the "better hitter." And Longoria was sort of the "glue." The team leader in Tampa. Span won't replace that intangible. Even they know in Tampa's front office that their record will be horrible this season.

They also got 38 homers for Logan Morrison who finally looked like an actual player last year.  They also did not have Cobb in 2016 but for 5 starts and had him all year in 2017.   The Rays have lost 85 homers from last season in Longoria, Dickerson and Morrison along with Cobb and Odorizzi. 

[25 Nuggets]

3 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

25Nuggets said it is the "current projection." I assumed that meant "current," not recent. But Tampa was the worst team in the division before the moves of the past week.

That's correct, at least for the Orioles as they had Cashner and Tillman added.

Tampa has Matt Duffy scheduled for 3B, Mallex Smith in LF, CJ Cron at DH and no Odorizzi, so they are also current.

Here is their rotation breakdown:

• 4.8 Chris Archer
• 2.7 Blake Snell
• 1.8 Jake Faria
• 1.8 Nathan Eovaldi
• 1.5 Matt Andriese
• 1.5 Brent Honeywell
• 0.5 Jose De Leon
• 0.4 Yonny Chirinos
• 0.1 Jaime Schultz
• 0.1 Ryan Yarbrough
• 0.0 Hunter Wood

TOTAL - 15.2 fWAR, way ahead of the Orioles.