Something has to be done with Mark Trumbo

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think he can sink as low as 450.  He was at 600 last year.

I was exaggerating a bit, but 600 should be enough to bench Trumbo if there options available like Alvarez/Trumbo.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, clapdiddy said:

Too early to bury Trumbo, though I hated re-signing him.

Agreed.   So he’s “in between” on March 6?   Big deal.   The whole point of spring training is to scrape off the rust.     16 at bats is hardly a basis for judgment.   

Like pretty much every season in the history of baseball, I expect managers to stick with their guys until mid-late May no matter how they start off, then make adjustments from there.    

And yes, I know Buck often has stuck with guys much longer than that.     I don’t think he’ll give Trumbo 600 PA this year if he continues to hit like last year.    

[George]

2 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

If we were really going all in, he would be DFA'ed, but this is the Orioles so we'll get to watch him flail away for at least another year and probably two.

we? Speak for yourself. I won't be watching because his ABs are boring, boring, boring.

[El Gordo]

Well trade him plus an iternational slot and use the 12M to spend on Cobb/Lynn..

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

If we were really going all in, he would be DFA'ed, but this is the Orioles so we'll get to watch him flail away for at least another year and probably two.

I don’t think there are many teams who would write off Trumbo that quickly.    Sure he sucked last year, but he hit very well the previous season and for $26 mm you’re going to give him some time before doing something drastic.   I didn’t see the Red Sox write off Hanley Ramirez after he was worth -1.3 rWAR in 2015, and they only released Pablo Sandoval after 2.5 seasons in which he was sub-replacement the entire time.   Were they not all in?

[Finisher]

Trumbo has negative value, you'd need to eat the entire contract.

Need to find a overpaid pitcher like Ian Kennedy and exchange salary dumps (Royals would need to kick in money though).

[Can_of_corn]

5 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think there are many teams who would write off Trumbo that quickly.    Sure he sucked last year, but he hit very well the previous season and for $26 mm you’re going to give him some time before doing something drastic.   I didn’t see the Red Sox write off Hanley Ramirez after he was worth -1.3 rWAR in 2015, and they only released Pablo Sandoval after 2.5 seasons in which he was sub-replacement the entire time.   Were they not all in?

I think 29 teams wrote off Trumbo last off-season. 

[DrungoHazewood]

I wanted to figure out what players have had a highest percentage of their value tied up in home runs.  It turns out to not work very well as a percentage, because there are a lot of players who are way, way, way below replacement if you take out their home runs.  For example, Steve Balboni, the Royals' DH from the 1980s. He hit 181 homers in a career that was worth about 1.0 win.  Homers are worth, on average, something like 1.6 runs (see: linear weights), a win is about 10 runs, so Balboni's homers were worth about +30 wins.  All the other things he did (hitting for average, playing defense, walking, baserunning, doubles, triples, getting hit by pitches, etc) were worth -29 wins.  Obviously if Steve Balboni didn't hit any homers he would have gone off to sell aluminum siding after he wasn't drafted.

So that's the challenge... how do you express the idea that 30 wins out of of Balboni's 1 win total was due to homers?  I don't know, this is just a throwaway thing so who cares?

Anyway, Mark Trumbo does appear on my list of players.  In his career his 201 homers are worth something like 33 wins, and his other stuff is -24.  He's not anywhere close to this obscure record.  Adam Dunn had a Hall of Fame career in homers (+76 wins) but was -59 wins on everything else.  Mike Jacobs was actually underwater; his 100 homers were worth about +16 wins, while all his other stuff was -18.  Dave Kingman mirrored Dunn at +73 and -56.  Ryan Howard was/is at +63 and -48.

Other notables among my 60-odd player list: Pedro Alvarez (+25/-19), Jim Presley (+22/-22), Ty Wigginton (+28/-25), Pete Incavaglia (+33/-23), Jay Gibbons (+20/-15), Dave Dellucci (+16/-14), Delmon Young (+18/-15), and Keith Moreland (+20/-17).

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I wanted to figure out what players have had a highest percentage of their value tied up in home runs.  It turns out to not work very well as a percentage, because there are a lot of players who are way, way, way below replacement if you take out their home runs.  For example, Steve Balboni, the Royals' DH from the 1980s. He hit 181 homers in a career that was worth about 1.0 win.  Homers are worth, on average, something like 1.6 runs (see: linear weights), a win is about 10 runs, so Balboni's homers were worth about +30 wins.  All the other things he did (hitting for average, playing defense, walking, baserunning, doubles, triples, getting hit by pitches, etc) were worth -29 wins.  Obviously if Steve Balboni didn't hit any homers he would have gone off to sell aluminum siding after he wasn't drafted.

So that's the challenge... how do you express the idea that 30 wins out of of Balboni's 1 win total was due to homers?  I don't know, this is just a throwaway thing so who cares?

Anyway, Mark Trumbo does appear on my list of players.  In his career his 201 homers are worth something like 33 wins, and his other stuff is -24.  He's not anywhere close to this obscure record.  Adam Dunn had a Hall of Fame career in homers (+76 wins) but was -59 wins on everything else.  Mike Jacobs was actually underwater; his 100 homers were worth about +16 wins, while all his other stuff was -18.  Dave Kingman mirrored Dunn at +73 and -56.  Ryan Howard was/is at +63 and -48.

Other notables among my 60-odd player list: Pedro Alvarez (+25/-19), Jim Presley (+22/-22), Ty Wigginton (+28/-25), Pete Incavaglia (+33/-23), Jay Gibbons (+20/-15), Dave Dellucci (+16/-14), Delmon Young (+18/-15), and Keith Moreland (+20/-17).

Where would Chris Davis fall?   +42/-24?

There’s something a bit fallacious about this.    Homers aren’t just homers, they’re also not outs.   It feels wrong to separate all the value of the homers.   By negating all Davis’ homers you’d be turning him from a .246 hitter into a .181 hitter, which doesn’t seem fair.    

[theocean]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

I don’t think there are many teams who would write off Trumbo that quickly.    Sure he sucked last year, but he hit very well the previous season and for $26 mm you’re going to give him some time before doing something drastic.   I didn’t see the Red Sox write off Hanley Ramirez after he was worth -1.3 rWAR in 2015, and they only released Pablo Sandoval after 2.5 seasons in which he was sub-replacement the entire time.   Were they not all in?

Agreed. Trumbo wasn't good last year - but he's been a solid hitter for his entire career. It's March 7th. Let's see how he's doing in May.

 

[Redskins Rick]

Just now, theocean said:

Agreed. Trumbo wasn't good last year - but he's been a solid hitter for his entire career. It's March 7th. Let's see how he's doing in May.

 

But, then what we would complain about?

[interloper]

17 hours ago, Frobby said:

Agreed.   So he’s “in between” on March 6?   Big deal.   The whole point of spring training is to scrape off the rust.     16 at bats is hardly a basis for judgment.   

Like pretty much every season in the history of baseball, I expect managers to stick with their guys until mid-late May no matter how they start off, then make adjustments from there.    

And yes, I know Buck often has stuck with guys much longer than that.     I don’t think he’ll give Trumbo 600 PA this year if he continues to hit like last year.    

I hear ya. But "In between" coming from Bordick can be translated at "completely lost", because otherwise he's about as homer-y as they come. I guess I just don't see his 3-19 with 0 XBH as rust, I see it as ominous. He seems frustrated already judging by his body language at the plate and in interviews. Meanwhile a guy like Beckham is talking about "beautiful feelings".. LOL. Trumbo has a bad look to him right now, but we'll see I guess.

[DrungoHazewood]

41 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Where would Chris Davis fall?   +42/-24?

There’s something a bit fallacious about this.    Homers aren’t just homers, they’re also not outs.   It feels wrong to separate all the value of the homers.   By negating all Davis’ homers you’d be turning him from a .246 hitter into a .181 hitter, which doesn’t seem fair.    

I didn't completely think this through, but I think my idea was that the homers just never happened.  All those at bats didn't become outs, they just disappeared from history.

[Just Regular]

Trumbo career OPS+ 108.

2016-2017 as an Oriole: 104

He's an OF/DH entering his age-32 year.  If he's at OPS+ of 100 at primarily DH plus a little RF this year, is that 1-win?  I honestly don't know how the DH position factors in.  Clay Davenport's forecast has him at 1.2 WARP in 105 DH, 32 RF and 8 1B games.

I think he's got a fair shot at being a 1-win player, and that isn't someone you just cut for having an underwater contract.

We've seen Trumbo too hot and Trumbo too cold - I don't think some bounce back is a crazy expectation.

He's an 18th round high school bat who persevered through 3000+ minor league PA's to become a credible big leaguer from 25-31.  Aside from the power, there isn't really a carrying tool, so I ascribe to him an above average head for the game, and think not seeing what his next half season brings would be jumping the gun no matter how many outs he makes the next couple weeks.

[DrungoHazewood]

24 minutes ago, theocean said:

Agreed. Trumbo wasn't good last year - but he's been a solid hitter for his entire career. It's March 7th. Let's see how he's doing in May.

 

That only has meaning in the context of his overall value.  He can't play defense at all, so his 108 career OPS+ isn't all that good.  One definition of a replacement player is a DH with average offense. Trumbo has been five runs above average on offense per 600 PAs over his entire career.