A Few Questions About Some Former Orioles

[TommyPickles]

This board loves Gentry. 

 

I’m not expecting much from his age-35 season.  But who knows, maybe he’ll beat the 156 ABs for a .668 OPS he racked up in 2018.

 

Over a whole season, both playing corner outfield positions, Jones will do way better.

[theocean]

3 hours ago, TommyPickles said:

This board loves Gentry. 

 

I’m not expecting much from his age-35 season.  But who knows, maybe he’ll beat the 156 ABs for a .668 OPS he racked up in 2018.

 

Over a whole season, both playing corner outfield positions, Jones will do way better.

The dude puts up a positive WAR season for the first time since 2014 and everyone loves him. Meanwhile, people can't wait for the fan-favorite All-Star and leader of the team to leave town. Go figure.

[atomic]

3 hours ago, theocean said:

The dude puts up a positive WAR season for the first time since 2014 and everyone loves him. Meanwhile, people can't wait for the fan-favorite All-Star and leader of the team to leave town. Go figure.

He cant hit right handed pitching.  Too bad the majority of pitchers are right handed.  I don't see Gentry playing in Major Leagues again. With the shorter benches these days a guy like Gentry doesn't play.  

[Pheasants]

12 hours ago, theocean said:

The dude puts up a positive WAR season for the first time since 2014 and everyone loves him. Meanwhile, people can't wait for the fan-favorite All-Star and leader of the team to leave town. Go figure.

Gentry won't get in the way of anyone else.  He can be fourth or fifth outfielder and manage to come in and field all three positions.  Jones would be expected and expecting to start everyday.  We'd have to excuse his bad defense and have the future sitting on the bench rather than playing.  I'd rather give the possible future players the chance and have a backup for them than have them sit behind someone we know is not part of the future. So I would rather sign Gentry.  It is called logic not love.

[wildbillhiccup]

Resigning Craig Gentry would be the gateway drug to resigning Danny Valencia and Pedro Alvarez (again). Hard pass. We have plenty of OFs to compete for the three spots in 2019. 

[Ohfan67]

Resigning Craig Gentry would be beyond dumb. 

[Pheasants]

1 minute ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Resigning Craig Gentry would be the gateway drug to resigning Danny Valencia and Pedro Alvarez (again). Hard pass. We have plenty of OFs to compete for the three spots in 2019. 

I'd be fine with that too as long as no one is put in front of the guys who may be the future. If we can cover all positions without Gentry as backup, I'm good.

[wildbillhiccup]

1 minute ago, Pheasants said:

I'd be fine with that too as long as no one is put in front of the guys who may be the future. If we can cover all positions without Gentry as backup, I'm good.

For the love of god just let the kids play. No more replacement level type signings/players like Gentry, Valencia, and Alvarez. It's bad enough that we still have Trumbo and Davis on the roster. 

[OriolesMagic83]

On 10/23/2018 at 8:15 PM, foxfield said:

The Os cant resign Jones.  His 10/5 status makes that a no go.

Why not?  The Cardinals are going to resign Wainwright and he has been there forever.  They are paying him less than 80% of past yearly contract value.  He just has to declare free agency and resign.  I don't think Jones is coming back regardless, but can Wainwright resign and not Jones.

[foxfield]

15 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

Why not?  The Cardinals are going to resign Wainwright and he has been there forever.  They are paying him less than 80% of past yearly contract value.  He just has to declare free agency and resign.  I don't think Jones is coming back regardless, but can Wainwright resign and not Jones.

Cant was a poor choice on my part.  Signing Jones is certainly possible.  But whatever value he has, is lower with Baltimore because he cannot be traded without waiving 10/5 rights.  But yes he can be signed.  It would be pretty foolish.  He should get a 2 year 18-20 M contract. 

[webbrick2010]

27 minutes ago, foxfield said:

He should get 2/20 where? Japan Jones will get 1 year between 5 and 8 million dollars. He has negative defensive value and is league average offensively. Not surprised at all if he doesn't sign anywhere

Cant was a poor choice on my part.  Signing Jones is certainly possible.  But whatever value he has, is lower with Baltimore because he cannot be traded without waiving 10/5 rights.  But yes he can be signed.  It would be pretty foolish.  He should get a 2 year 18-20 M contract. 

 

[foxfield]

I'm not an authority at all, you may well be right that Jones does not get the 2/20 I say...my point is that the O's should not sign him.  I still think he plays in the MLB, but we'll see.

[jsbearr]

On 10/22/2018 at 9:05 AM, Ohfan67 said:

His use of the term “model validation” was about as far from model validation as you can get. His model looks like a very weakly supported regression. 

Guys, you know, I am easily accessible. You can ask me these things.

Yes, we have approached in a more complicated manner and find that our model consistently performs better than others. However, the site is not a heavy statistical analysis site, so we try to not get more complicated than graphical comparisons and range comparisons because they are more easily understood.

[jsbearr]

On 10/22/2018 at 2:07 PM, theocean said:

It seems like the model is very WAR heavy. Gentry had 1.1 bWAR last year. Jones had .02 bWAR last year. It isn't a perfect stat.

It does not use WAR at all.  Very early in the process we found that some aspects of WAR were highly variable or not valued, so by doing it to that level of an encapsulated approach would be making different events too generic in terms of their value.

 

Again, guys, I am easily accessible.

[jsbearr]

I do not really get why the model riles people up.

Last year, BSL folks got mad. Tracked it. Found out that it projects contracts fairly well when you look at the contracts the database largely relies on.

Craig Gentry would not be an ideal player to track. The model has difficulty with highly protected isolated players because it has trouble seeing why someone is not playing.