Wieters and Rutschman

[Luke-OH]

33 minutes ago, joelala said:

What if Texas Tech's Josh Jung has an absolute monster, Kris Bryant type college season (he had a monster year last year too) does he join the 1-1 conversation?  I personally like him a lot.

Absolutely, Jung is a guy I’m high on as well.

[ChuckS]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Absolutely, Jung is a guy I’m high on as well.

What's his major league position project to be?  Listed as an IF-Pitcher.  3B?

[Luke-OH]

19 hours ago, ChuckS said:

What's his major league position project to be?  Listed as an IF-Pitcher.  3B?

3B, I think he’s only thrown an inning or two in college. 

[LookinUp]

On 1/27/2019 at 11:30 AM, hoosiers said:

 Interesting to hear someone saw they "saw" a "slow swing" from a MLB catcher who hit over 20 HRs three years in a row in MW's age 25-27 and who would have hit double digit HRs from his age 24 to age 31 seasons if not for injuries in two of those years (he was on pace for well of 10 HRs in those two injured seasons).  A four time AS.  MW did not live up to the HoF hype generated by his minor league numbers, but he was a very good major league catcher.  

All of this is true. It's also true that I was at his first ML game, saw his first ML at bat, and immediately came away surprised at how over matched he looked. Maybe his swing wasn't technically slow. Maybe it was long. Or maybe it was late pitch recognition. I don't know. I just know that he was billed through the draft and then through his minor league career as a HoF hitter and it was obvious to me from the first day I saw him that he was not (unless there was an injury or something I didn't know about). The guy never had an OPS above .778 except for one injury shortened year where he started out on a tear. Yes, he ran into some home runs, but he was a #6-7 hitter billed as a #3 guy. I also readily admit that a lot of his value came on defense, but I'm skeptical about dWAR in general and specifically about the value Wieters supposedly added since he wasn't a pitch framer and stolen bases are exiting the game.

I'm not killing the guy or the pick. He turned out pretty good, but even though he was 9th in WAR out of Frobby's 54 year look back, I can guarantee that the other 45 teams were hoping for more out of their #5 pick.

[Can_of_corn]

Please give an example of him being billed as a HoF guy at the time of the draft.  I don't think it happened.  The comp I remember is Varitek.

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Please give an example of him being billed as a HoF guy at the time of the draft.  I don't think it happened.  The comp I remember is Varitek.

His hype multiplied tenfold after his MiL campaign in 2008.    Before that he was just another very high draft pick who was highly regarded.   

I remember that in his first MiL game he homered from each side of the plate.   Yowza!

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

His hype multiplied tenfold after his MiL campaign in 2008.    Before that he was just another very high draft pick who was highly regarded.   

I remember that in his first MiL game he homered from each side of the plate.   Yowza!

Exactly if he was seriously being comped to hall of famers at draft time no way he would have dropped to 5 even with Boras as an agent.

[ChosenOne21]

Oops, double post

Edited February 8, 2019 by ChosenOne21

[ChosenOne21]

19 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Please give an example of him being billed as a HoF guy at the time of the draft.  I don't think it happened.  The comp I remember is Varitek.

There were the "Mauer with power" comps, which if he hit like Joe Mauer but averaged 25HR a year for a decade-plus would be a HoF career. But yeah, I don't remember anyone saying he was a surefire hall of famer. Even the dumbest talking heads of the hype machine don't get that hyperbolic. No one is a surefire hall of famer at draft time

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, ChosenOne21 said:

There were the "Mauer with power" comps, which if he hit like Joe Mauer but averaged 25HR a year for a decade-plus would be a HoF career. But yeah, I don't remember anyone saying he was a surefire hall of famer. Even the dumbest talking heads of the hype machine don't get that hyperbolic. No one is a surefire hall of famer at draft time

Even “Mauer with power” came after his 2008 MiL campaign.  

https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/matt-wieters-joe-mauer-with-power/

[Luke-OH]

Rutschman catch and throw at 1:45, also a look at the top college arm in the 2019 draft at the moment. 

[LookinUp]

On 2/7/2019 at 4:17 PM, Can_of_corn said:

Please give an example of him being billed as a HoF guy at the time of the draft.  I don't think it happened.  The comp I remember is Varitek.

I definitely remember some publication set probabilities that equates to 50% likelihood of HoFer. My guess is it was an extrapolation of his scouting grade (e.g., 80 = HoF). I don’t remember the specifics but definitely remember being taken aback and telling my father about it. I’d wager we discussed it on this site and that it was when he was in the minors, not pre-draft, if you’re looking for proof.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, LookinUp said:

I definitely remember some publication set probabilities that equates to 50% likelihood of HoFer. My guess is it was an extrapolation of his scouting grade (e.g., 80 = HoF). I don’t remember the specifics but definitely remember being taken aback and telling my father about it. I’d wager we discussed it on this site and that it was when he was in the minors, not pre-draft, if you’re looking for proof.

I remember seeing the same stuff, but it wasn't at draft time, it was after he put up that monster season in the minors.  At draft time he was a top two or maybe three pick that dropped a bit because of Boras being his agent.  I don't remember anyone suggesting taking him over Price.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

I remember seeing the same stuff, but it wasn't at draft time, it was after he put up that monster season in the minors.  At draft time he was a top two or maybe three pick that dropped a bit because of Boras being his agent.  I don't remember anyone suggesting taking him over Price.

Fair enough. Poorly phrased by me. I still don’t understand how scouts expected that out of him if they saw him live. My guess is people got caught up in the numbers and the hype, and that better scouts had more reasonable projections.

What stunk is that fans were led to believe he was something that he was not. He never had the contact ability of Mauer, so the power was good, but didn’t play as much as we were led to expect. If instead Wieters was projected as an average or better OPS guy with above average D, he’d probably be much better liked by O’s fans. Instead, he was a let down. That’s really not fair to him.

[Just Regular]

Fangraphs released their BOARD update kicking off their prospects week, and they have Rutschman as the sole 55 on their tough scale.

They have just 10 other guys at 50's, including most intriguingly to me, Andrew Vaughn at #3, a bad body (Frame minus in their parlance), right/right first baseman from Cal.  That must be one stupendous bat.

Not that the worst record for next year is in the bank thanks to Marlins, but I did notice their 2020 board has two Georgia Bulldogs pitchers at the top.