Connolly/Elias interview: Dominican facility upgrades, etc

[LookinUp]

atomic, your point has merits. The O's could definitely decide to go the route you want them to go and it would be defensible. 

I think you also need to acknowledge that the O's may decide not to go this route and it can also be defensible.

Elias et al are not going to get the benefit of the doubt from you. They are from many others on this site. It is what it is, but 1) they seem about 99% smarter than anything I've heard coming from the warehouse since Pat Gillick*, 2) they're talking over and over again about the international marketplace and 3) they've stated that the resources are there for what they want to do. Given all of that, I am personally giving them the benefit of the doubt.

 

*Could definitely argue both MacPhail and DD would have taken us down a better path if PA allowed it, so maybe that's not fair.

[WalkWithElias]

5 minutes ago, atomic said:

Also if as you say Sanchez is seen as equivalent to a second round pick, the slot values for a guy picked at the top of the second round is $1.5 million.  Would you pay 1 million dollars for another second round pick if you could buy one? 

The Braves paid $3 million dollars for the Orioles competitive Round B pick which is between 2nd and 3rd round.  Dodgers paid Orioles $2.5 million dollars for a similar pick.  And they also had to pay signing bonuses to those guys.  

I didn't say he's equivalent to a second round pick. This information is based on a report from Trezza talking to league executive:

"Given his limited offensive potential, Sanchez is a consensus above-average prospect but, as one rival executive put it, "not a generational talent or anything." The executive compared Sanchez to a college senior and a potential second- or third-round pick if he were subject to the MLB Draft."

$2.5M would be twice as much as the biggest bonus paid to a college middle infielder selected in the 2018 2nd or 3rd round. Open market free agents make more than college draftees, so that makes sense. Also that Trezza story says Sanchez turns 22 in March. 

But again, you keep twisting yourself around totally hypothetical numbers. We don't know what dollar value Elias & Co. will put on Sanchez after they see him. But if they do not sign him, clearly it is because the team prefers to put that money somewhere else and I trust them for now. I'm not even really clear what you're so upset about. Angry that a team will hypothetically make a decision about a player that you've never seen play for reasons that you don't know. Really pummeling this strawman. 

[Frobby]

If the Orioles are good in 2022, I don’t think atomic should be allowed to enjoy it.   

[weams]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

If the Orioles are good in 2022, I don’t think atomic should be allowed to enjoy it.   

Don't worry. He won't.

[atomic]

1 hour ago, Frobby said:

If the Orioles are good in 2022, I don’t think atomic should be allowed to enjoy it.   

If the Orioles are terrible in 2022; I think you guys should be forced to watch every game with a smile on your face. 

[Bradysburns]

15 hours ago, atomic said:

The real sad thing is it probably costs next to nothing to set up a decent facility in the Dominican Republic.  

Right, which is why it's so confounding that Peter held that process back. It could have saved him a ton of money. Very unwise. 

[sportsfan8703]

I’m sure $1 million goes a long way in the DR. With payroll being so low, why not just build the best facility out there?  Then we act like this is some process to convince the street agents down there to being us the top talent. The process is called money. Start greasing some wheels. Sounds like it’s basically legalized NCAA BB/FB recruiting. I saw “Blue Chips”. Buy some tractors, gives some parents jobs, and hand out breifecases of money. 

All this talk about facilities and “relationship building”. The answer is money. 

PA was willing to do this for Sano. Got burned. I heard Jim Duquette(I know, I know) saying on 105.7 yesterday that any signing over 25k had to get a ton of approval. He said a 30k signing meant 6-7 meetings to get approved. So it just became not worth the effort. 

[atomic]

16 hours ago, Frobby said:

If the Orioles are good in 2022, I don’t think atomic should be allowed to enjoy it.   

Another thing to think about is none of these improvements are going to help the team by 2022. We are talking about 16 year old players who will be signed in July.  And I can tell you the Orioles will sign zero of the top guys.  What player is going to sign to play the next 2 to 4 years in a facility that is by the worst in the DR when teams like the Yankees and Phillies have these great facilities?  The only way would for the Orioles to grossly overpay on prospects.  And the Orioles won't do that. And the top guys will all have huge offers so they will pick the teams with the best infrastructure and who has a history of getting guys to the majors.

So say the Orioles finally get off their butts and build a facility. It would take a couple of years.  So you are talking about maybe we would be signing guys in 2021.  So in the best case scenario you make a great signing and the player is a superstar that might be ready in 2025 at age 20.  

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, atomic said:

Another thing to think about is none of these improvements are going to help the team by 2022. We are talking about 16 year old players who will be signed in July.  And I can tell you the Orioles will sign zero of the top guys.  What player is going to sign to play the next 2 to 4 years in a facility that is by the worst in the DR when teams like the Yankees and Phillies have these great facilities?  The only way would for the Orioles to grossly overpay on prospects.  And the Orioles won't do that. And the top guys will all have huge offers so they will pick the teams with the best infrastructure and who has a history of getting guys to the majors.

So say the Orioles finally get off their butts and build a facility. It would take a couple of years.  So you are talking about maybe we would be signing guys in 2021.  So in the best case scenario you make a great signing and the player is a superstar that might be ready in 2025 at age 20.  

I more or less agree that the Dominican upgrades probably won’t show up in major league players by 2022.   But you’ve got to start somewhere.    

[LookinUp]

22 minutes ago, atomic said:

Another thing to think about is none of these improvements are going to help the team by 2022.

...

So in the best case scenario you make a great signing and the player is a superstar that might be ready in 2025 at age 20.  

This is true, but I think you're focusing on only one part of the rebuild. Elias is also supposedly revamping player development and likely our draft approach. If done perfectly, several B/C prospects should get better and become solid ML contributors. A couple would hopefully hit big and we'd be supplementing with a couple years worth of high picks. The 16 year old Dominicans will be replacing other guys when their service time runs out.

[atomic]

32 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I more or less agree that the Dominican upgrades probably won’t show up in major league players by 2022.   But you’ve got to start somewhere.    

I don't disagree and hopefully the Orioles do build a modern facility in the DR.  I am just saying that your expectation of a winner by 2022 is going to have to be more on draft and really primarily on player acquisition. 

[Frobby]

32 minutes ago, atomic said:

I don't disagree and hopefully the Orioles do build a modern facility in the DR.  I am just saying that your expectation of a winner by 2022 is going to have to be more on draft and really primarily on player acquisition. 

Honestly, I don’t have an “expectation” of a winner by 2022. Based on what happened in Houston, I am hoping it takes no longer than that.     We play in a tougher division and in certain ways (international being one) we are behind where the Astros were.

I want one thing to be crystal clear: I am not assuming that Elias & co. will be able to replicate the success of the Astros.    I’m rooting hard for them to do so, and to build a sustained contender as quickly as possible.   Every team wants to do that, but they don’t all succeed.   I feel like we have a coherent long term plan, but not all coherent long term plans work out.    We will see what happens.    

[LookinUp]

While I appreciate Elias' approach, I do anticipate him spending at some point to put together what essentially projects as an 82-85 win team with a hope of striking gold. I seriously doubt that we wait to spend on FAs or make expensive trades until it's the single move that puts a young organization over the top. 

That will likely be in a couple of years. I think the next two seasons will be all about finding the diamonds in the rough, developing the ones with real potential and clearing the old expensive payroll out of the organization. Maybe we win 75 in 2020? That seems like the upside, to me, but what do I know?

[Moose Milligan]

12 minutes ago, Frobby said:

 

I want one thing to be crystal clear: I am not assuming that Elias & co. will be able to replicate the success of the Astros.    I’m rooting hard for them to do so, and to build a sustained contender as quickly as possible.   Every team wants to do that, but they don’t all succeed.   I feel like we have a coherent long term plan, but not all coherent long term plans work out.    We will see what happens.    

Something everyone should read twice.  

Just because we got Elias and Sig doesn't mean it's going to be a foregone conclusion that they're going to make this team a winner.

[Tony-OH]

On 2/11/2019 at 10:38 AM, TonySoprano said:

Not exactly what one would assign to the title of VP, Baseball Operations.  It’s more like he should be the store manager of a GNC or run a health club, instead of a 7-figure salary job. He was pretty vague beyond that as to what use is Brady in the Front Office 

I think his answer spoke volumes though.