Maybe we are better than we think.

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, Bmorebirds24 said:

I’m still saying 70 wins wouldn’t shock me for this year. 

As for the farm system. Guess we will wait and see. 

I’m trying to see 70, and I think the team will be solid enough that a few booted balls from the other guys could get us there.

but not if Trey is in LF, please God Forbid.

[tntoriole]

2 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is about where I am.  

I don't look at us being 4th with the number of prospects ready to help in '19 and '20 as a good thing or a bad thing.  It's just a snapshot in time of where this franchise happens to stand, which is at the beginning of a rebuild.  In other words, there's no choice but to have that amount of young players ready to go over the next couple of years.  We aren't going to be signing a lot of free agents, that doesn't make sense.  

We need these kids to step up.  I'm encouraged so far by Hays and Diaz this spring.

There is certainly truth in what you say about some of that ranking just simpky reflecting a rebuild.  But still, there are other teams in rebuild mode who are farther down that list and having more ready to advance prospects may also reflect a degree of higher talent level than I might have thought.   The Cardinals are just above us and their ranking likely reflects more of their overall talent rather than just reflecting a rebuild. 

[hoosiers]

3 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

You might be able to say the same thing about the opening day starting lineup.

There is clearly a lot of rebuilding to do, but I think we have good candidates in our system at the top of the rotation (GrayRod and Hall - guys unlikely to be up in 2021) and at the bottom (Akin, Ortiz, Lowther, Kremer and others) and we have current rotation candidates who might be around (Bundy, Karns, Hess) depending on how they do.  A big plus is that our payroll commitments might be under $40M at that time so there will be capacity to take on a free agent SP if needed.  And it is very possible we will accumulate as much 2019/2020 draft/international talent as about anyone in baseball.  Our future should be taking shape around Opening Day 2021.

[sportsfan8703]

I like our young OF and our bullpen. Mullins, Hays, and Diaz would be fun to watch. Givens, Scott, Kline, Castro, and Bleier as a top 5/7 in the pen could be really good. 

[Sanfran327]

5 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like our young OF and our bullpen. Mullins, Hays, and Diaz would be fun to watch. Givens, Scott, Kline, Castro, and Bleier as a top 5/7 in the pen could be really good. 

We've seen this recipe work in Baltimore before. As long as the starters are competent for 16-18 outs a game, the bullpen won't burn out too early, and it's a strong enough asset to shorten games. Still need to be able to catch the ball and score runs though. Lots of unknowns, but I'm much more excited to watch them this year than I was last year.

[interloper]

I certainly think some of the young players who didn't crack the top 100 are a little better than people think. A guy like Stewart seems like a good example. He's not a huge impact guy, but I think he's a dude.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 hours ago, Moose Milligan said:

This is about where I am.  

I don't look at us being 4th with the number of prospects ready to help in '19 and '20 as a good thing or a bad thing.  It's just a snapshot in time of where this franchise happens to stand, which is at the beginning of a rebuild.  In other words, there's no choice but to have that amount of young players ready to go over the next couple of years.  We aren't going to be signing a lot of free agents, that doesn't make sense.  

We need these kids to step up.  I'm encouraged so far by Hays and Diaz this spring.

Yea, the Orioles have 20 guys with an ETA of this year or next because the only thing standing in between them and 550 PAs in Baltimore is Joey Rickard.  Or the continued good health and performance of Mark Trumbo.  Or Richard Bleier getting healthy and continuing to pitch well despite no strikeouts at all.

If you look like you might kind of be a major league player, come on up, you're in the lineup.

[scbalt52]

12 hours ago, Aristotelian said:

Even though they are all in the minors, I am much more optimistic about our 2021 pitching than our position players. Hall, Kremer, and Akin appear to be pretty good bets to be decent MLB pitchers. Plus you have Harvey if healthy, and Gray Rod with top of the rotation upside, and Lowther, Knight, Ortiz, and Tate all with at least back end potential. I am much more concerned about the total lack of infield prospects.

We could get lucky too with at least one of Hess, Yefry, Wells, Hanifee, Bishop, Baumann, Dietz, and Sedlock. Some more luck needed than others 

[LookinUp]

I'd feel good if we were two-deep at every position in the pipeline. Many will not make it.

With that in mind, I think we're "good" with outfield. Poor to mediocre with infield. Mediocre to poor on catcher and something between mediocre to good on pitching. Every organization has ifs, and we're no exception. Some guys like Grenier, Adam Hall and Encarnacion, or Chance Sisco, could make a jump and change the entire discourse, as could 1 great draft and a couple of upside international guys. However, in our current state, we need to hit on a high % of these guys to be bullish.

[glenn__davis]

11 hours ago, hoosiers said:

There is clearly a lot of rebuilding to do, but I think we have good candidates in our system at the top of the rotation (GrayRod and Hall - guys unlikely to be up in 2021) and at the bottom (Akin, Ortiz, Lowther, Kremer and others) and we have current rotation candidates who might be around (Bundy, Karns, Hess) depending on how they do.  A big plus is that our payroll commitments might be under $40M at that time so there will be capacity to take on a free agent SP if needed.  And it is very possible we will accumulate as much 2019/2020 draft/international talent as about anyone in baseball.  Our future should be taking shape around Opening Day 2021.

I'd say Hall has a pretty good shot to be up by 2021.  He'll be in Frederick this year, hopefully Bowie next.  Obviously he needs to stay healthy and keep producing, but he was quite studly last year.  I don't think the idea of him up in 2021 is overly optimistic.

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, interloper said:

I certainly think some of the young players who didn't crack the top 100 are a little better than people think. A guy like Stewart seems like a good example. He's not a huge impact guy, but I think he's a dude.

 

[Tx Oriole]

7 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I like our young OF and our bullpen. Mullins, Hays, and Diaz would be fun to watch. Givens, Scott, Kline, Castro, and Bleier as a top 5/7 in the pen could be really good. 

I like them too. 

[foxfield]

Two things:

1)  Yes I think we could be better than some think but I think that is largely do to a better attitude and complete lack of expectations.

2)  It is entirely too early to get overcome with optimism on specific people.  The process is underway and we will be awash in people getting a chance to grow.  It will look good at times and it will look horrible at times.  

I am going to try and remain focused on the process and how Elias and company work this team into something.  There is no miracle cure.  For every player that looks to be gaining there will be an injury or some other setback.  For now, I am encouraged that the team seems to embrace the opportunity to grow and I look forward to watching that progress.

I have no expectation of a 70+ win season and believe for all intents and purposes we are making every major decision based on 2020 or 2021.  And I am ok with that...

[LookinUp]

5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

1)  Yes I think we could be better than some think but I think that is largely do to a better attitude and complete lack of expectations.

Exactly. I think a team with a healthy attitude and competent leadership has a hard time finishing last in MLB. I don't expect us to end up with back-to-back #1 overall draft picks unless we dump our best starters and have key injuries.

* I do think we'll be bad. Just not historically horrible like last year.

[HowAboutThat]

Is it too soon to start picking win totals? I’m voting for between 65 and 70, but bear in mind that true improvement is not incremental, but transformative. On a scale of 1 to 100, you don’t go from 3 to 5 to 7 to 9, you go from 3 to 5 to 7 to 50, because one thing you have changed has made a tremendous difference.

The change we’ve made is to get rid of the idiots, whoever they were, who were making really unjustifiable decisions. Last year we started the season with what, four designated hitters on the roster? But no utility infielder? We had so little depth at pitching we didn’t even have four reliable starters. Just getting rid of the guys who thought those were all good ideas makes a huge difference.

 In one sense, we are only getting back to zero, but remember that subtracting negatives is initially more important than adding positives. 

So I am hopeful about the future, but I’m also hopeful about this season, because there was so much Bad, and we have subtracted all of it.