The Davis Release Poll

[interloper]

Simple question: How long does he last? Stake your claim!! [2019-2020]

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

[interloper]

Keep in mind this should be what you predict will happen, not what you WANT to happen. 

[jamalshw]

My prediction is a bit optimistic, but I think he has until around August when we start seeing a lot of guys called up. Essentially--baring an surprising turnaround--he has until the team deems Diaz, Hays, and Mountcastle ready. The pinch is on even more if Trumbo remains on the roster.

I think as soon as Hays and Diaz are up, that pushes Mancini out of the OF picture. He takes one spot in the 1B/DH puzzle. With him, Trumbo and Davis it can still work, but if Mountcastle bangs down the door, that could be all she wrote for Davis especially if the team's unable to move Trumbo (which they may be able to do by eating most the money if he swings well this year).

[Frobby]

Worthy poll.     

I think they give him two months, maybe three.    That’s usually the time I start believing that offensive stats carry some weight and don’t merely reflect hot or cold streaks to begin the year.     And I think that gives them enough time to try to fix him and conclude it’s a fruitless exercise.   

He hasn’t shown any improvement at all this spring.   If anything, his ability to put the bat on the ball is worse than ever.     The fact that he’s walked a few times gives me no comfort at all.   

[interloper]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Worthy poll.     

I think they give him two months, maybe three.    That’s usually the time I start believing that offensive stats carry some weight and don’t merely reflect hot or cold streaks to begin the year.     And I think that gives them enough time to try to fix him and conclude it’s a fruitless exercise.   

He hasn’t shown any improvement at all this spring.   If anything, his ability to put the bat on the ball is worse than ever.     The fact that he’s walked a few times gives me no comfort at all.   

Didn't expect you to go for one of the more aggressive options. I like it!

[interloper]

2 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

My prediction is a bit optimistic, but I think he has until around August when we start seeing a lot of guys called up. Essentially--baring an surprising turnaround--he has until the team deems Diaz, Hays, and Mountcastle ready. The pinch is on even more if Trumbo remains on the roster.

I think as soon as Hays and Diaz are up, that pushes Mancini out of the OF picture. He takes one spot in the 1B/DH puzzle. With him, Trumbo and Davis it can still work, but if Mountcastle bangs down the door, that could be all she wrote for Davis especially if the team's unable to move Trumbo (which they may be able to do by eating most the money if he swings well this year).

Well-reasoned. I also believe Mountcastle is a big factor. If Davis lasts that long, Mountcastle seems like the prospect to finally bounce him. 

[Frobby]

Just now, interloper said:

Didn't expect you to go for one of the more aggressive options. I like it!

I am normally a very patient person.   I was more patient than most people with Davis at the start of last season.    But it’s been a long time with no sign of improvement.   For $92 mm you have to give a guy some chance to rebound, but he’s really giving us zero reason to think a rebound will happen.   So, 2-3 months is my limit.   

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

5 minutes ago, jamalshw said:

My prediction is a bit optimistic, but I think he has until around August when we start seeing a lot of guys called up. Essentially--baring an surprising turnaround--he has until the team deems Diaz, Hays, and Mountcastle ready. The pinch is on even more if Trumbo remains on the roster.

I think as soon as Hays and Diaz are up, that pushes Mancini out of the OF picture. He takes one spot in the 1B/DH puzzle. With him, Trumbo and Davis it can still work, but if Mountcastle bangs down the door, that could be all she wrote for Davis especially if the team's unable to move Trumbo (which they may be able to do by eating most the money if he swings well this year).

I'm also onboard with your line of thinking. I'm thinking post all star break and the end of the season.  If there are prospects that are clearly ready, then it will be time to set Davis free if he is batting under .200 with a 50% strikeout rate and continued diminished power.

[interloper]

I chose during the offseason. My reasoning here is, I think Elias may want to say to ownership "we gave him the full year". In this scenario, if Davis is clearly toast for the first couple of months, they would bench him while Elias "intervenes", as he said he would. He re-debuts again pre/post All-Star break and they give him the rest of the season. 

Then, if he still stinks, I think Elias has an iron-clad case to release him during the offseason, when the press is in low-key mode and unable to get to Davis and when Elias/the organization can make a single statement about it until the Winter Meetings. 

[Aristotelian]

I believe they will carry him like a Rule 5 guy for at least a year before they even think of releasing.

[jerios55]

The money is paid and I think Elias will try and see for a year what happens. 

Keeping Davis will aid in the 2020 draft pick game, save service time for some.  I also don't see the O's eating that much money yet.

[interloper]

Surprised at the majority so far being that he makes it to 2020. Interesting!

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, interloper said:

Surprised at the majority so far being that he makes it to 2020. Interesting!

Didn't know Davis had that many sock puppet accounts on OH. 

[Dr. Unk]

What about the Ubaldo pothole option?