Grayson Rodriguez 2019

[emmett16]

Kid looks unhitable right now.  Filthy curve.  Sitting at 96-97 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, emmett16 said:

Kid looks unhitable right now.  Filthy curve.  Sitting at 96-97 

Literally unhittable.   5 IP, 0 H.    And 10 K’s too.    Nice to see.   

[joelala]

15 hours ago, emmett16 said:

Kid looks unhitable right now.  Filthy curve.  Sitting at 96-97 

Sitting 96-97?! If so, that would be amazing.  He usually sits 91-93, no?  Anyone else see the game on Friday?  Cuz if he can sit even 94-95, gotta think the ceiling is higher than a #3...

[LookinUp]

22 hours ago, joelala said:

Sitting 96-97?! If so, that would be amazing.  He usually sits 91-93, no?  Anyone else see the game on Friday?  Cuz if he can sit even 94-95, gotta think the ceiling is higher than a #3...

I thought the same thing.

[jabba72]

This newfound velocity is unusual isnt it? Has he tweaked his delivery or something?

[Frobby]

On 8/10/2019 at 7:46 PM, emmett16 said:

Kid looks unhitable right now.  Filthy curve.  Sitting at 96-97 

I’m thinking the stadium gun was a little hot.   Still, no doubt it was an impressive showing.   

[Luke-OH]

14 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I’m thinking the stadium gun was a little hot.   Still, no doubt it was an impressive showing.   

That’s the most likely explanation, but he did touch a confirmed 98 in HS, so it’s possible that after an adjustment period to pro ball, the velo is climbing. Sitting 96-97 would be an unlikely jump though, I think his best non-stadium gun numbers this year was 92-96 sitting 93-95. 

[Tony-OH]

26 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s the most likely explanation, but he did touch a confirmed 98 in HS, so it’s possible that after an adjustment period to pro ball, the velo is climbing. Sitting 96-97 would be an unlikely jump though, I think his best non-stadium gun numbers this year was 92-96 sitting 93-95. 

This seems likely. Velocity numbers, specifically sitting numbers, are typically inflated.

[BohKnowsBmore]

36 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

That’s the most likely explanation, but he did touch a confirmed 98 in HS, so it’s possible that after an adjustment period to pro ball, the velo is climbing. Sitting 96-97 would be an unlikely jump though, I think his best non-stadium gun numbers this year was 92-96 sitting 93-95. 

I would still posit that "ceiling of #3 starter" seems a bit pessimistic.  I can definitely see #3 starter as a 75-80th percentile outcome, but don't think really good #2 starter should be out of the question for "ceiling."

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

I would still posit that "ceiling of #3 starter" seems a bit pessimistic.  I can definitely see #3 starter as a 75-80th percentile outcome, but don't think really good #2 starter should be out of the question for "ceiling."

I heard a quote one time, I’m not sure who it came from but it was from someone in the scouting/front office community. It was during Justin Turner’s 2nd 5 WAR season and went something the effect of if Justin Turner turned into a 5 WAR player then the ceiling for everyone in the upper minors is one of the best players in the league. 

Basically when people say ceiling, they talk about reasonable ceiling, not absolute ceiling but absolute ceiling wouldn’t be particularly useful in distinguishing between players.

That said, if he’s truly holding 96-97, that obviously changes the profile and any ceiling assessment. Although Keith Law thinks the arm action doesn’t work so he’d still project significant relief risk. I don’t think I ever said #3 ceiling, btw.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

I heard a quote one time, I’m not sure who it came from but it was from someone in the scouting/front office community. It was during Justin Turner’s 2nd 5 WAR season and went something the effect of if Justin Turner turned into a 5 WAR player then the ceiling for everyone in the upper minors is one of the best players in the league. 

Basically when people say ceiling, they talk about reasonable ceiling, not absolute ceiling but absolute ceiling wouldn’t be particularly useful in distinguishing between players.

That said, if he’s truly holding 96-97, that obviously changes the profile and any ceiling assessment. Although Keith Law thinks the arm action doesn’t work so he’d still project significant relief risk. I don’t think I ever said #3 ceiling, btw.

I think a lot of evaluators hedge their bets when it comes to young starting pitchers and err on the side of average.  I don't recall a lot of guys being projected years out as #1 or #2's.

[emmett16]

On 8/11/2019 at 11:17 AM, joelala said:

Sitting 96-97?! If so, that would be amazing.  He usually sits 91-93, no?  Anyone else see the game on Friday?  Cuz if he can sit even 94-95, gotta think the ceiling is higher than a #3...

Every time I looked at the radar after a FB it said 96/97.  I don't remember seeing many 95's and don't think I saw any 94's, but let's be honest I probably looked over at the radar reading 15-20  pitches or so.    My guess is gun was a little hot, but man did he make the glove explode.  We watched the first two innings behind visiting dugout, the kids came back after striking out shaking their heads and laughing.  We walked out to the deck that goes behind the fence at shorebirds stadium and the sound the glove was making on FBs was unreal.  I was most impressed by his curveball, it was missing bats by wide margin.  I don't recall seeing many change-ups.   It was very impressive.  He is a big boy

[MurphDogg]

Hopefully he pitches when the Shorebirds are in Hagerstown August 23-25. I would make the trek for that.

[LookinUp]

18 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think a lot of evaluators hedge their bets when it comes to young starting pitchers and err on the side of average.  I don't recall a lot of guys being projected years out as #1 or #2's.

Not sure, but I think this is a bit of a cop out. I just think the standard for a #1/2 is very high. 

That said, before Law came out and questioned whether Grayson could hold his velocity, I think most evaluators would have said his ceiling is a #2. People listen to that guy. I'm not saying he's right, but he's no dummy regardless of what every fan base in baseball thinks of him. lol.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Not sure, but I think this is a bit of a cop out. I just think the standard for a #1/2 is very high. 

That said, before Law came out and questioned whether Grayson could hold his velocity, I think most evaluators would have said his ceiling is a #2. People listen to that guy. I'm not saying he's right, but he's no dummy regardless of what every fan base in baseball thinks of him. lol.

I think his twitter followers listen to him.

I don't think other evaluators pay him more attention than his peers.