Ryan Mountcastle 2019

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, atomic said:

MLB Pipeline new list has him at #55 overall and #1 first baseman prospect in all of baseball.  

Must be a dry spell for first base prospects.  Why don't you astonish me with some other information about his awesome defense.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Do you need to?  

C'mon, CoC.  I know you're probably watching cricket and drinking gin and dubbonet but there's a thing in American football called "backup quarterback syndrome" which I think is part of the allure of Mountcastle.  Essentially the incumbent is no good (in this case, Davis...truly is no good) and therefore the backup HAS to be better.  The guy on the bench is the one to step in and save the day!  Or in this case, the guy in the minors is the one we all want to see!  He's got a bright future!  He's going to be one of the guys we can build around!

For a message board that's inherently obsessed with prospects, Mountcastle seems to be that guy.  Out with the old, in with the new despite major warning flags.  BECAUSE PROSPECTSSSSSSSSSSSS

Can't stand gin.

I'm sorry I thought you were beating your old drum about draft status.

Yes I will agree that the shiny new car is loved in these parts.

In my case I like inexpensive low mileage cars. 

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Can't stand gin.

I'm sorry I thought you were beating your old drum about draft status.

Yes I will agree that the shiny new car is loved in these parts.

In my case I like inexpensive low mileage cars. 

Draft status affords higher drafted players more opportunities, c'mon.  I'll beat that drum all day.  

 

[Sessh]

I wouldn't be that surprised to see him go on a tear for a week or so when he's called up, but what will happen when pitchers realize they don't have to throw strikes to get him out? It's possible he could have a special ability to make contact when he swings like Vlad did, but even Guerrero had a decent K/BB ratio for his career and even had more walks than K's in several seasons. Lack of discipline/OBP plus below average defense sounds like the kind of thing we're trying to get away from.

I'm not closing the door on him, but am also not optimistic. He could have that special bat, but I highly doubt it's .300/30HR special. Maybe 200+ strikeout special, though.

[WalkWithElias]

58 minutes ago, atomic said:

Mountcastle was rated 51 best prospect by baseball prospectus before the season.  He is also rated in top 100 by Baseball America and Baseball Pipline. It isn't like we are just reaching for anyone.  He is 22 and hit at every level.   If he walked 50 times this year and his other stats were the same he would be a top 20 prospect.  

It very, very painful for me to say this, but bah gawd ... I agree with atomic. 

It always amazes me how this board eagerly crawls minor league box scores in search for players who may some day produce at the major league level. We talk upside and potential and what tweaks certain players need to unlock performance.... then we have a 22-year-old mashing in AAA who has caught the attention of national evaluators and we are even more eager to tear him down. 

How about instead of spending large portions of our online Orioles fandom thinking of snarky new ways to trash the potential of one of the 100 best prospects in the entire league, we see what the kid does when he gets here. But I guess that would mean less page views on OH and we need to keep those up. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Do you need to?  

C'mon, CoC.  I know you're probably watching cricket and drinking gin and dubbonet but there's a thing in American football called "backup quarterback syndrome" which I think is part of the allure of Mountcastle.  Essentially the incumbent is no good (in this case, Davis...truly is no good) and therefore the backup HAS to be better.  The guy on the bench is the one to step in and save the day!  Or in this case, the guy in the minors is the one we all want to see!  He's got a bright future!  He's going to be one of the guys we can build around!

For a message board that's inherently obsessed with prospects, Mountcastle seems to be that guy.  Out with the old, in with the new despite major warning flags.  BECAUSE PROSPECTSSSSSSSSSSSS

Of course the opposite exists and prospects are discounted because of a scouting report someone read when they were drafted.

[ChuckS]

8 minutes ago, WalkWithElias said:

It very, very painful for me to say this, but bah gawd ... I agree with atomic. 

It always amazes me how this board eagerly crawls minor league box scores in search for players who may some day produce at the major league level. We talk upside and potential and what tweaks certain players need to unlock performance.... then we have a 22-year-old mashing in AAA who has caught the attention of national evaluators and we are even more eager to tear him down. 

How about instead of spending large portions of our online Orioles fandom thinking of snarky new ways to trash the potential of one of the 100 best prospects in the entire league, we see what the kid does when he gets here. But I guess that would mean less page views on OH and we need to keep those up. 

Who is tearing him down?  Having reservations about his upside is not tearing him down. 

I think he's going to be a solid .800ish OPS player in the Adam Jones/Jonathan Schoop mold.  I don't see him being better than that without improvements to his walk rate. 

[luismatos4prez]

Schoop is a pretty good comparison for him, offensively. Schoops low OBP high SLG profile makes him around a league average hitter overall. Most of his value comes from his defense, if you look at his page.

[Pheasants]

Question: Do we know how often he swings at bad pitches? Could the lack of walks be due to him making contact earlier in the count or striking out on pitches in the zone?  I've never seen an analysis of why he has so few walks, just an assumption that he chases.

[atomic]

28 minutes ago, luismatos4prez said:

Schoop is a pretty good comparison for him, offensively. Schoops low OBP high SLG profile makes him around a league average hitter overall. Most of his value comes from his defense, if you look at his page.

A .268 and a .291 average in the minors are the same thing to you I guess.  Now we are getting statements that are bordering on ridiculousness. 

[atomic]

1 hour ago, WalkWithElias said:

It very, very painful for me to say this, but bah gawd ... I agree with atomic. 

It always amazes me how this board eagerly crawls minor league box scores in search for players who may some day produce at the major league level. We talk upside and potential and what tweaks certain players need to unlock performance.... then we have a 22-year-old mashing in AAA who has caught the attention of national evaluators and we are even more eager to tear him down. 

How about instead of spending large portions of our online Orioles fandom thinking of snarky new ways to trash the potential of one of the 100 best prospects in the entire league, we see what the kid does when he gets here. But I guess that would mean less page views on OH and we need to keep those up. 

You should have read their posts about Cody Sedlock after he pitched 27 innings at Aberdeen at age 21 to a 3 run ERA.  They were already penciling him in as a #1 starter. 

[luismatos4prez]

35 minutes ago, atomic said:

A .268 and a .291 average in the minors are the same thing to you I guess.  Now we are getting statements that are bordering on ridiculousness. 

Pretty different minor league careers. Schoop was in Baltimore at age 21/22 because of his defense (and the playoff push). Mountcastle gets to mash juiced up baseballs in Norfolk. 

Of course in 2015, I also claimed that Mancini would never hit in the big leagues so what do I know? 

[Frobby]

The truth is, 90% of the posters have never seen any of our minor leaguers play, and frankly, wouldn’t know what to look for if they did.   And the other 10% are only right in their assessments about half the time.     We all have opinions, but a little humility is in order for pretty much everyone who tries to predict which of our prospects will pan out.   In general, more will fail to meet hopes/expectations than will exceed them.    That’s about all I can say.

Back to Mountcastle, of course his K/BB ratio is a concern.    And frankly, I’m as concerned about the K portion of that ratio as I am about the BB part.     But to date, he has produced at every level despite his flaws.     You just have to hope that will continue to be true in the majors, and that once he’s no longer advancing to higher and higher levels of competition, the plate discipline stuff will get a chance to catch up a little.    But yes, the odds are very high that he’ll always have a very low walk rate.

 

 

 

 

[atomic]

5 hours ago, RZNJ said:

This idea that Mountcastle is "mashing" in AAA is laughable.  He was 35th in OPS last time I checked.  No comparison to another player is going to determine his future.  School actually had similar BB:K ratio in AAA but he played at 21.  He also had 1:2 ratio overall as opposed to 1:4 (1:7 this year) for RM.  School has a .740 career OPS but also added some defensive value which RM is unlikely to. How about Adam Jones who played AAA at 21/22 and put up a 967 OPS good for 4th in the PCL.  His ratio was 1:3 that year.  His career OPS is .780 but he also played a key defensive position.  Schoop and Jones plate discipline numbers didn't noticeably improve in the majors.  Just because Mountcastle is hitting .300 in AAA this year is no reason to suspect he'll hit .300 in the majors.  On the contrary, I think you'll see his BA take a significant nosedive and his OPS and OBP along with it.   His home run and RBI numbers are nice but if you look a little deeper it doesn't bode well.

Mountcastle plays in a very pitcher friendly park.   

[atomic]

Also interesting to note that Mountcastle only has 1 walk against left-handed pitching in 88 at bats but has a .364 Batting average and .996 OPS against them.