Rebuilding without Stinking

[Bubble Buddy]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let me know when the Mariners, A’s or Brewers win the World Series or win 100 games two years in a row.    

There’s nothing lazy about this approach.   It’s probably the hardest way to go, because the fans have so little reason to support the team in the initial phases.   But it’s necessary.

And nobody said that this approach means you never acquire talent from the outside.    It’s a matter of who and when, not if.   

I think this is key here. Specifically with the Mariners, not even sure they will be .500 this year. The A’s played a bit over their head last year with a patch work rotation. And we’ll see about the brewers in a tough division. 

I feel like tearing down to the studs makes even more sense for us being in a revamped AL East. If we’re gonna finish beyond 4th or 5th for a few years, might as well do it right. 

[hoosiers]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let me know when the Mariners, A’s or Brewers win the World Series or win 100 games two years in a row.    

There’s nothing lazy about this approach.   It’s probably the hardest way to go, because the fans have so little reason to support the team in the initial phases.   But it’s necessary.

And nobody said that this approach means you never acquire talent from the outside.    It’s a matter of who and when, not if.   

It is silly to say the "take it down to the studs" is the easy way to do this.  

I think any objective review of our organization would reveal the following:

 - worst international scouting infrastructure in MLB

 - a farm system with very little international presence

 - a system-wide technology deficiency

 - among the worst analytics departments in MLB

 - a major league club coming off a 115 loss season with maybe four players capable of a 2 WAR, and a negative WAR $23M 1B

 - playing in a division with three of the top 10 teams in baseball

It takes someone with a total disconnect from any reasonable reality to analyze the situation inherited by Elias and conclude significant resources should be spent getting the MLB roster as competitive as possible.

[HowAboutThat]

A big handicap in recent years has been really terrible trades: poorly thought out and poorly executed. The Elias pickups have so far been quite good: our catchers, Smith, a solid rule 5 guy in Martin, among others.

It appears that transactions will be more intelligent going forward. That right there is a plus.

[JazzyJake]

11 hours ago, webbrick2010 said:

They lost 115 games last year.... it was already down to the studs

Then they even traded the studs.

[Yachtsman]

The truth is as follows - The stink shall be extreme, but on certain nights it shall be less stinky. This team will probably win 65 games if they are lucky this year and probably next, which will be frustrating. There is no way around this. The organization has to be completely revamped. Once two drafts by competent org members have passed, and the team signs at least its share of international players, who play extensively in the Minors, they shall not stink. That shall be by my guess in three years. Until then, we all get to hold our collective noses, but I will only get enraged if they do not compete a la last year. No athlete should ever not mind losing.

[BobDylanBundy]

There is a big difference between being an ordinary non-contender and being a laughing stock possibly on a historical scale.

A little effort in the free agent market could have at least created the perception that the Orioles were a legitimate Major League team, and provided tradeable assets to help retool the farm system this summer.

It's not like saving money during the rebuild is going to magically lead to that money being spent when we are contenders. We won 96 games in 2014 and made ZERO offseason upgrades while letting our best hitter and our starting RF walk without acquiring a reasonable replacement for either. The money saved during the losing seasons was irrelevant, just the same song and dance about how the Baltimore market cannot support a competitive payroll, this team needs to bargin shop, yada yada yada.

[sportsfan8703]

Elias should have followed DD’s model from a few years ago. Make small trades, primarily using international slots, for SP from teams that were facing 40/25 man roster issues. 

Right now we’re dipping down to our “depth” and this is pretty much it. It’s pretty shallow. We’re not going to touch Akin, Ortiz, Harvey, until the end of the year, or even at all this year. 

[DrungoHazewood]

18 hours ago, atomic said:

It is laziness. Instead of seeking out players to help your team you sit back and do nothing and lose tons of games for years.  

You actually think that the reason that Elias and the rest of the management team haven't spent $40M on placeholders to try and win 75 games this year is that they're hanging out in the Warehouse playing video games and watching soap operas?  You really believe that this isn't a concerted plan to save resources to build for the future (which you happen to disagree with), but instead they've hired a bunch of unfocused, disengaged 8th graders to run the team?

I think it's incredibly lazy to the point of trolling to equate a disagreement in philosophy with an unwillingness to try.

[waroriole]

5 hours ago, BobDylanBundy said:

There is a big difference between being an ordinary non-contender and being a laughing stock possibly on a historical scale.

A little effort in the free agent market could have at least created the perception that the Orioles were a legitimate Major League team, and provided tradeable assets to help retool the farm system this summer.

It's not like saving money during the rebuild is going to magically lead to that money being spent when we are contenders. We won 96 games in 2014 and made ZERO offseason upgrades while letting our best hitter and our starting RF walk without acquiring a reasonable replacement for either. The money saved during the losing seasons was irrelevant, just the same song and dance about how the Baltimore market cannot support a competitive payroll, this team needs to bargin shop, yada yada yada.

Money spent on ML FA is money not spent on scouting, international infrastructure, analytics, draft overslots etc. 

[nate22]

Our reluctance to enter the international free agent pool has affected the talent in the organization. Apparently, that's supposed to change. Hopefully we'll start spending more in that area. By more I mean on some of the more prominent international prospects. The next signing period should be really telling about the state this rebuild.

[theocean]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You actually think that the reason that Elias and the rest of the management team haven't spent $40M on placeholders to try and win 75 games this year is that they're hanging out in the Warehouse playing video games and watching soap operas?  You really believe that this isn't a concerted plan to save resources to build for the future (which you happen to disagree with), but instead they've hired a bunch of unfocused, disengaged 8th graders to run the team?

I think it's incredibly lazy to the point of trolling to equate a disagreement in philosophy with an unwillingness to try.

I think that the O's needed to slash payroll this year in order to use as many resources as possible to develop a good foundation of player development, analytics, and international scouting. The on field product will be terrible and revenue will take a big hit. But, I'll trust that the O's ran the numbers and figured out this was the best method to have the most money to invest in this foundation. I hope the on-field product doesn't lead to lower revenue than what they projected.

But, next year - I'd certainly expect them to start signing some low-risk/high-reward guys. Free Agency is incredibly advantageous to teams right now - and there is enormous value in players who need a second-chance or an adjustment to their game. Earlier in the thread I broke down the roster construction of the 2016 Cubs and 2017 Astros - each team only had a few home-grown, drafted players. The O's are going to need to look to Free Agency, Waiver Wire, or Trade Market to find some diamonds in the rough. I think the days of getting big prospect hauls for a veteran at the trade deadline are over - and as more teams tank, the draft will be even more difficult to find value.

So, I really reject the idea of "What you wanted them to waste money to win 75 games?" There's a lot of middle ground between completely tanking and signing Jay Payton and Kevin Millar. The O's - at all times - should be looking for buy-low guys with potential because those guys can be traded for future assets, or stick around to be a part of a winning team.

The O's farm system isn't going to produce 25 home-grown major-league caliber players all at the same time. They're going to need to spend some money elsewhere - and I think an organization valued at over a billion-dollars can figure out a way to invest internally, while also giving someone like Edwin Jackson a minor-league deal in order to stabilize their pitching staff and get something back at the deadline. If they can't, where is the $10,000 I spent in beer and hot dogs on Opening Day going?

 

 

[DrungoHazewood]

18 hours ago, hoosiers said:

It is silly to say the "take it down to the studs" is the easy way to do this.  

I think any objective review of our organization would reveal the following:

 - worst international scouting infrastructure in MLB

 - a farm system with very little international presence

 - a system-wide technology deficiency

 - among the worst analytics departments in MLB

 - a major league club coming off a 115 loss season with maybe four players capable of a 2 WAR, and a negative WAR $23M 1B

 - playing in a division with three of the top 10 teams in baseball

It takes someone with a total disconnect from any reasonable reality to analyze the situation inherited by Elias and conclude significant resources should be spent getting the MLB roster as competitive as possible.

The simple math is that the Orioles need about 30 WAR worth of talent to get to .500.  To do that with the situation Elias had/has would mean mostly free agency at about $8M/win. Tthat would be about $240M to get in the neighborhood of .500.  That's not even remotely possible, even if the budget were there (which it obviously isn't).  A 47-win team can't sign 15 MLB free agents of some quality in an offseason.  The Yankees couldn't sign 15 MLB free agents in one offseason.

At best, following that strategy would mean 3, 4, 5 Jeff Conines for $50-75M, many fewer resources available to fix development and infrastructure, and an end result of maybe 65-70 wins.

[Tony-OH]

23 hours ago, Frobby said:

Let me know when the Mariners, A’s or Brewers win the World Series or win 100 games two years in a row.    

There’s nothing lazy about this approach.   It’s probably the hardest way to go, because the fans have so little reason to support the team in the initial phases.   But it’s necessary.

And nobody said that this approach means you never acquire talent from the outside.    It’s a matter of who and when, not if.   

Bingo. Both the Astros and Cubs have won World Championships and have been consistent contenders. I'm happy the Orioles are going with that approach.

[hoosiers]

I would also add that I think folks don't understand the financial stress the organization could be under.

Normally, such a weak team would have a lower payroll and the ability to make investments even with low attendance.  But our payroll is higher right now than would be normal under these circumstances while also looking at a higher draft budget, anticipate spending much more internationally, build out an international infrastructure, create a capable analytics department, spend on new technology, etc.  I don't think folks appreciate how important it was to simply shed O'Day's salary.  I think that move was a major indicator that $ would be tight this year and here we are.  I assume we have $ to make the necessary investments outlined by Elias, but I don't expect there is much extra - which really makes these calls to upgrade the major league team or to try to make the team competitive somewhat ignorant IMO.

[BohKnowsBmore]

In addition to lowering payroll, there’s a benefit to not having potential dead weight on the roster as we turn the corner.  “Just signing some decent players” for this season would likely/possibly command some amount of obligation carrying into future seasons. Ideally the projected roster should almost be a blank slate for two years out. We find out who should be pencilled in among the young guys. Then we sign FA to supplement that core in areas they can be most accretive. Entering multi year commitments now has the potential to lead to inefficient future roster construction.