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2019 Trade Deadline

sportsfan8703

By sportsfan8703
in Orioles Talk

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hoosiers Hangout Grand Counsel

hoosiers

Posted
Posted
10 hours ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So we're really just talking about O'Day's salary since Gausman would have been traded either way. And you think the team is so strapped financially that they needed O'Day's $9M to cover everything you mentioned? The Orioles aren't a small market team, they're a mid-market team. They should have had the dollars to invest in everything you mentioned even with O'Day on the payroll. And a $100M payroll isn't what it used to be. It basically puts you in the bottom third in terms of payroll in this era.  

So, wildbill, you have now downgraded or abandoned the "zero indication the $ has been reinvested into the team" to "they should have had the $ to invest in everything you mentioned even with O'Day on payroll".  You should have just posted this initially and I would have understood you are talking in poorly conceived generalities that can't be confirmed or refuted on an internet message board.  But, I do have an extensive accounting and finance background, I have worked on proposals worth over $1B and worked the full budget of a $300+M company and would appreciate it if you humor me with what I would have done if I were the Angelos brothers.  

Upon seeing the $140M 2018 payroll fail and realizing a full re-build was in order, I would have gone about putting together a 2019 preliminary budget.  There would be inputs on the revenue side - MASN $, MLB $, advertising $ and attendance.  Now, some of the items above could probably be budgeted pretty well, but a decline in attendance/season ticket sales would have been an estimate.  On the cost side, with a focus on putting $ into the rebuild, you budgeted for a GM, a front office, a coach, the draft, and much more; and you put together a list of initiatives (international scouting director, actual international spend, a real analytics group, etc).  And you set a target profit (or loss).  Perhaps on the cost side you put in a contingency in case attendance is weaker than estimated or you lose an arbitration case.  You know what the biggest variable to tweak is on the cost side - it's player payroll.  And you know what you need in order to commit to funding those initiatives - cost certainty - particularly on the biggest cost - player salaries.   

You can't hire a new GM and show him the budget and say, we can afford to invest internationally as long as season ticket sales don't fall below a certain number.  Or as long as we don't lose in arbitration on Villar.  Or tell the new GM - no, we don't have $5M in case a great reliever falls to us on the free agent market or to take gambles on DFA guys.  That new GM wants your commitment on all those initiatives that improve the rebuild path.  That new GM wants to build a shiny, state of the art analytics group.  He wants to hire a scouting director and invest internationally.  And all the while the league/commissioner's office is making inquiries into who is running the team and viewing decisions involving the long term competitiveness of the franchise through a critical lens.

And so, when you are one of the Angelos brothers and you sit there in June/July 2018 and you look at the projected 2019 Plan from revenues to costs to the new initiatives and the roster and the various assumptions and contingencies, the most obvious way forward in reducing player salaries and achieving a reduced and appropriate cost certainly is to look at the injured and costly Darren O'Day (your most unproductive player asset - at least Davis takes the field), and you tell your GM to make it a priority to move O'Day in the deadline deals.  It is a logical and simple solution and more valuable to securing lower player costs for the 2019 Plan than maximizing the prospect haul from a Gausman trade.

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Yardball85 Hangout Veteran Council

Yardball85

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1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

That's the Braves #1 pick from 2015 and #10 prospect. Not setting the world on fire but a  nice return for a 31 year old pending free agent.

 

 

Agreed.  Makes you wonder what the Braves would've given for Givens, who has of course struggled but has a good K rate and is controllable.

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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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This Dodgers writer is smoking the crack pipe! 

 

He says Givens would be a buy low and sort of a reclamation project ....LOL

 

So paying less than he's worth lass than 2 months of journeyman Chris Martin.

 

http://dodgersdigest.com/2019/07/30/2019-trade-deadline-targets-rhp-mychal-givens-orioles/

Quote

Cost

Givens, at this stage, would be a buy-low candidate. He’s under team control through the 2021 season and is due the remainder of his $2.15 million salary for this season. His past performance shows there’s some untapped talent in his right arm, and if the Dodgers could get him for cheap, they could be getting an effective middle reliever.

Package 1

To BAL: John Rooney, Edwin Rios
To LA: Givens

Rooney would give the O’s a nice left-handed starter to develop. Rios could come up right away and take some playing time at first base, third base, left field or designated hitter. And with Trey Mancini on the trade block, there could be a vacancy for an MLB-ready bat.

Package 2

To BAL: Gerardo Carrillo, Cody Thomas
To LA: Givens

Carrillo’s scouting reports are better than his results thus far, but the 20-year-old has a live arm and could be developed into a mid-rotation starter. Thomas is still a bit raw, but he’s an athletic outfielder with big-time power.

——

If the returns for Givens seem a bit light, it’s because he’d be more of reclamation project kind of acquisition — one more for the next couple season rather than this season. If there’s any organization out there that can not only get him back to his previous level of production, but get him to that next level, it’s the Dodgers. And if they can get him for a decent enough price, they could reap the benefits.

 

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Teddy OBP Veteran All-Star

Teddy OBP

Posted
Posted
12 minutes ago, interloper said:

I would love to see Elias be involved in a 3 team deal if only because the Orioles have never been creative in trades and I haven't seen a multi team Orioles trade ever that I can recall.

Sports Guy had probably 50 of them teed up for the O’s that never came to fruition.  

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