Not to be whiny, but can we just cut Richie Martin loose already?

[weams]

2 minutes ago, awannabegeek said:

I don't understand this as a rebuttal to defensive metrics? All you care about is if a guy catches a ball? What about the balls that drop in that another more capable outfielder would have caught due to better instincts and\or athleticism? 

I agree with you. It can't be all results based. But it has to have accuracy. And park adjustments and human error make that tough. 

[awannabegeek]

2 minutes ago, weams said:

Many defensive statistics require human input, have bias, are wrong. 

Are wrong based on what?

Again, a data scientist is a bit more equipped on controlling for biases than your average Joe. 

[weams]

3 minutes ago, awannabegeek said:

Are wrong based on what?

Again, a data scientist is a bit more equipped on controlling for biases than your average Joe. 

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article230967538.html

Quote

what the Fielding Bible has to say about that raw data:

“Baseball Info Solutions reviews videotape of every game in Major League Baseball. Every play is entered into the computer where we record the exact direction, distance, speed and type of every batted ball. Direction and distance is done on a computer screen by simply clicking the exact location of the ball on a replica of the field shown on the screen. Speed is simply soft, medium and hard while types of batted balls are groundball, liner, fly and bunt.”

Let’s run through that one more time.

BIS claims to record “exact” direction, distance, speed and type of every batted ball, and then, before the paragraph is over, admits someone is actually estimating where the ball landed, how hard the ball was hit and what kind of trajectory the ball exhibited.

You might also notice that the BIS guys are watching video of games and aren’t there in person, which as you’re about to see matters a lot.

Unless there’s a shot looking straight down from the Goodyear blimp, recording the exact location of the ball on a replica of the field would be difficult given the angles TV cameras typically use.

BIS likes to call the people doing the estimating “video scouts,” which sounds impressive until you find out it’s a seasonal job and starts at $8 an hour. Just for comparison’s sake, McDonald’s pays its employees an average of $9.35 an hour and none of them have the capability of ruining a big-league ballplayer’s reputation.

Now head over to FanGraphs and see what they have to say about Ultimate Zone Rating, the advanced defensive metric they use, which is once again based on Baseball Info Solutions data:

“We don’t know precisely where a ball is hit, we don’t know exactly how long the ball was airborne or on the ground before it lands, is touched, or passes a fielder, and we don’t know exactly where the fielders were positioned when the ball was hit.”

Because the BIS guys are watching video and games on TV rarely show defensive alignment before a ball is hit, they don’t know where a fielder was positioned at the beginning of the play.

So metrics that claim to measure a player’s defensive ability actually have little or no information about how far a player had to run to get to a batted ball.

So how are they calculating range?

According to the Fielding Bible there are “about” 260 “vectors” dividing the field. The velocity of the ball (estimated) and the ball’s trajectory (once again estimated) are then mixed into the soup.

Here’s an example of how it works:

Figure out the league average for converting a “soft ground ball” hit into a particular vector into an out. Then, if a player makes that play more often than average, he gets plus points; if he makes that play less often than average, he gets minus points, expressed in whatever format a particular metric uses.

So what if the player was positioned somewhere in Outer Mongolia and was nowhere near the vector the ball was hit to and had zero chance of making a play that would have been routine if he hadn’t been in a shift?

That’s a problem.

 

[Sessh]

3 minutes ago, awannabegeek said:

I don't understand this as a rebuttal to defensive metrics? All you care about is if a guy catches a ball? What about the balls that drop in that another more capable outfielder would have caught due to better instincts and\or athleticism? 

I said "makes plays" not catches a ball. Failing to make plays that other outfielders would make on a consistent basis would qualify as not making plays often enough. It wasn't meant as much as a rebuttal as a comment on Frobby's comment. If most people don't agree with the metrics, they won't be accepted. Even the knowledgeable fans, the players and managers seem to think they are deeply flawed stats. I don't see too many arguments against the legitimacy of the offensive stats. I mean, they're not perfect, but certainly more accurate when applied in the real world. If most teams have their own metrics, they must also reject UZR as being any good. They don't seem to reject the offensive ones, though.

[Roll Tide]

I really don't get all the cut Martin stuff. He's been on the roster this long. He shows offensive flashes occasionally and his glove is good. We have nothing to loose by carrying him through the end of the year and spending next year at AAA.

[Enjoy Terror]

I’d be worried for Martin if the trade deadline passes and Villar is still here. I don’t think Peterson re-signed with us without some sort of major league handshake agreement.

[ChrisP]

Hits in 5 of 6 with 3 multi hit games, Raised his average from .160 to .183, hitting .233 for the month of July.

[LA2]

20 minutes ago, ChrisP said:

Hits in last 4 games in which he had an at-bat with 3 multi hit games, Raised his average from .160 to .183, hitting .233 for the month of July.

FTFY. I think it should be pointed out that before these last four games with at-bats (7 for 15), Martin was 0 for 15 in July.

[bobmc]

3 hours ago, LA2 said:

FTFY. I think it should be pointed out that before these last four games with at-bats (7 for 15), Martin was 0 for 15 in July.

@cumberbundy already knew this and breathed a sigh of relief, but the new stance and focus are working during this SSS.  Like @Frobby, I'll await further developments.  

Edited July 23, 2019 by bobmc

[weams]

Just now, bobmc said:

@CyBundy (can't find him is he banned again?) already knew this and breathed a sigh of relief, but the new stance and focus are working during this SSS.  Like @Frobby, I'll await further developments.  

He is back under his old banned name, @Cumberbundy

[MCO'sFan]

On 7/21/2019 at 12:23 PM, weams said:

https://www.kansascity.com/sports/mlb/kansas-city-royals/article230967538.html

 

If this is all true, I can't imagine why anyone would put faith in these metrics. Can anyone explain why they do?

[weams]

1 minute ago, MCO'sFan said:

If this is all true, I can't imagine why anyone would put faith in these metrics. Can anyone explain why they do?

They need to address the defensive side in some manner. Some of the names who support this are revered in SAbr research. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, weams said:

They need to address the defensive side in some manner. Some of the names who support this are revered in SAbr research. 

I'm sure pretty much everyone wants to get more accurate.  I haven't heard anyone going well, it's good enough, let's stop and have a beer.

[MCO'sFan]

Just now, weams said:

They need to address the defensive side in some manner. Some of the names who support this are revered in SAbr research. 

Thanks for the reply. This may sound snarky but I don't mean it to. I am trying to reflect how silly this sounds to someone who doesn't know anything about defensive metrics. So the answer is because the want/need to. 

[weams]

2 minutes ago, MCO'sFan said:

Thanks for the reply. This may sound snarky but I don't mean it to. I am trying to reflect how silly this sounds to someone who doesn't know anything about defensive metrics. So the answer is because the want/need to. 

I did not do a good job. As someone who think the defensive metrics are pure hooey, I am not your best replier.  Maybe someone who thinks they are bee knees needs to.