The official "Do not call up Matt Wieters" thread

[BaltimoreTerp]

But what if the chemistry goes bad and we end up with a sad last-place team for the final 2 months of the season? Wouldn't that just break your heart?

Aching at the very thought.

[J.D.]

The chemistry of the last-place team with several players who won't be here next year one way or another?

You all sound like me three years ago. And that is NOT a compliment.

C'mon. You don't have to be insulting. I mean, how would you feel if I said you sound just like SG?

You do realize that, in just about every other division in baseball, we wouldn't be anywhere near the cellar. Right? I know that doesn't matter a whole bunch, but we're pretty close to .500, and I'm not a big believer on screwing up the chemistry and taking away ABs from guys that have earned it.

The chemistry matters if you tick off guys like Roberts or Markakis or Huff... guys that ARE going to be here next year, and you have those guys stop believing in the manager.

[bej6789]

Just because Wieters is mashing the ball, does it really mean he's ready for a promotion to the bigs? What happens if he comes up and then hits .100 and then next season he completely tanks? Is he even ready to call a major league game?

I want to see Wieters just as much as the next guy, but there's more to a promotion than just mashing the ball at a minor league level. How is he at calling a game? He's great at hitting inferior talent, I'm not so sure he'd have the success everyone wants at the major league level this year.

[Sports Guy]

What is really ridiculous is you saying that I said not to bring him up because he is a Boras client.:rolleyestf: My entire post is about how most of us are oversimpifying the situation. I think only a dolt would think he is not ready, just like only a dolt would not realize baseball is a business and the business concerns also need to be considered. AM has more info than any of us and he has elected the course of action that the O's are taking. I am willing to respect that. It appears that he is removing the league laughing stock title from the organization so IMO he is earning that respect.

SG seriously you usually make a decent or better case for most of your views, but did you just argue that we should base our plan on an agent dying or losing a client?

Let me ask you this. Is locking up wieters' 29 YO season more valuable than the 100 or so ABs he would get in September? That should be a season at his absolute peak based on you own view. See I am willing to say I don't know. I do know that if he really is this good, you are likely giving up a MVP type year, is it ridiculous to consider this in your decision process. I don't think so at all. But I live in a world that is not as black and white as yours. My world with all of these annoying shades makes things a little harder for me to be so certain.

Did the point really fly over your head that quickly?

The point was that you have no idea what is going to happen in the next 6 years. We may not want him back..He may sign an extension...He may get rid of Boras...He may leave via FA and we may say we wish we had him another year...All of that is possible.

[JimDH]

But they've shown so far that they're handling it well. Wieters is progressing comfortably through the system. There's no reason to rush him at all. I've been saying for weeks now, and I completely agree with Tony and Scottie on this: you don't screw up the chemistry that the team has now, and you don't keep pushing Wieters after he's played more ball this year than he has in any other year in his life. Let him rest and come back next year.

There's no reason we can't see what these career minor leaguers have to offer in Spring Training, either. That's the appropriate time to do that anyway.

I am not sure if I buy the chemistry bit as far as Wieters is concerned. If he were promoted to take the place of RH that may or may not have a negative effect on team chemistry, but I don't think the FO will be worried about team chemistry if some team put a claim in for Hernandez.

[Flosman]

How about this: Is getting Wieters the best possible preperation to be a part of the next Orioles contender, by letting him work things out at the major-league level now when it doesn't matter instead of next year when it could, more important then the off-chance there is a contract issue seven years from now?

In the eyes of AM yes it appears so. Look I want him to start in Baltimore tonight, but to act as if it is a clear cut case of mismanaging Wieters is crazy talk. AM IMO has worked wonders since taking over. IMO he is superior than ANY of us in how to run a team and this is the course he elected to take. I as a fan wish it wasn't but I am also ok with it. You know AM has access to info we don't. He is talking to scouts, talking to Boras, talking to Matt's manager, and even talking to Matt himself. Who the hell are we to act as if he is an idiot for picking this course of action? I have no problem with someone saying he should be called up and that that calling him up is the best for his development. I take issue with many who act as if the O's are mishandling Matt and that nothing has changed over the recent past.

BTW Matt getting ABs now is not going to be some magic potion to prevent him from struggling next season or ever for that matter. That is going to be determined by the existence of weaknesses in his game and his ability to adjust and improve. If he plays alot in September do you really think teams are going to just ignore trying to find his weaknesses next season? Do you think the ML time works the other way also, you know scouts will look at Matt and try to figure out how to expose any weakness during the offseason also. The other guys will use the data to develop a plan to get him out. The truth is if he has a significant weakness it will eventually be exposed at the ML level, playing this September will not change that and 30-45 days is not the litmus test as to the existence of any flaw.

The truth is many on here can't wait to start the Wieters era in baltimore and simply are willing to dismiss anything that might delay it at all. I am simply glad that we have a guy worthy of thinking thier might be an era associated with him and we finally have a FO that I believe is competent to manage him and the rest of the team.

[Sports Guy]

First off, the last I checked, there is a lot more to being a major league catcher than hitting the ball. Wieters did not even call his own pitches in college so he's learning to call games this year. He's learning where to set up, read hitters, and understand his pitchers strengths and weaknesses. By going to Frederick and then Bowie, he also got to work with two sets of pitchers and pitching coaches which can only help his experience as well.

And he should have been learning this in Bowie to begin with and then up here.

Did you ever think for a moment that maybe getting off to the good start in Frederick helped him gain confidence as a professional hitter and helped him get off to such a great start with Bowie?

No, I don't buy this.

What if he had started in Bowie and hit a rough spot and his confidence was lost a little?

And what if he dominated Bowie to begin with, was brought up in July or so and wnt on a Ryan Braun-esque run to end the year? How would that have done for his confidence?

We'll never know but since Wieters has become one of the top prospects in all of baseball, it's is totally and utterly ridiculous to make the comment the Orioles have screwed up with Wieters.

They screwed in the levels they put him at. He would have been the best prospect regardless.

As for September, really, why? What if Wieters comes up and doesn't do well and suddenly all the good he built up this season gets wiped out a bit. The confidence he built up all season, the same confidence he'll have coming into spring training next year when it's almost certain he's going to be the Orioles every day catcher next year, could get wiped away with a poor September.

If his confidence is lost after a few bad weeks, then i have little hope for him being any good long term.

And what about his confidence if he comes up, has an 850ish OPS, learns the pitching and gets the feeling that he belongs?

On top of it all, this is his first full professional season. He's never caught this much in his life so you know what, a rest might be in order, even for a big strong 22-year old

.I have already shown he hasn't caught that many games, so this argument doesn't hold water to me.

Let Wieters play out the year with Bowie, and then shut him down. If the Orioles want him to work on something specific they can send him out to the Arizona Fall League, but honestly, I'd be fine with them shutting him down until next spring.

I fail to see any logic behind shutting him down and then sending him to Arizona...You either shut him down and not play him or play him against the best and then not play him. Having him go to a hitters league against the same guys he is dominating now makes zero sense to me.

[J.D.]

I am not sure if I buy the chemistry bit as far as Wieters is concerned. If he were promoted to take the place of RH that may or may not have a negative effect on team chemistry, but I don't think the FO will be worried about team chemistry if some team put a claim in for Hernandez.

There's a difference between getting claimed on waivers and getting benched, though. If RH was claimed on waivers and Wieters was brought up, I don't think that has any negative impact at all. And really, I'm not so certain that benching Ramon would have any negative impact on the team at all. It starts getting sticky when you throw guys like Millar into the equation, though.

[ACE]

How you see our records reflects your opinion on the topic, I gather.

"4 games under .500" shows the lets not throw in the towel mentality. See also: team chemistry, veteran leaders, morale.

"last place team" leads to Weiters, Reimold, and Bergenson being on the first flight to BWI.

I guess its more of a middle ground. Yes, we are in last place, but we also are the only division in baseball with 4 teams over .500. I believe the wildcard aspect has dampened that argument a bit. Also, we are only 4 games under .500, but as a baseball club, they definitely be looking to make moves to improve for the future while being careful to make sure they reward those who have gotten us this far and not hurt anyone developmentally. Ideally, they want to be as efficient as possible. Look for opportunities to trim payroll if possible, but lets not make moves just to make moves.

My idea is to expand rosters for the month of September, so we can give opportunities to those players who have achieved at the minor league level but without closing the doors completely to our current roster.

oh wait. They do that already.

[Sports Guy]

C'mon. You don't have to be insulting. I mean, how would you feel if I said you sound just like SG?

You do realize that, in just about every other division in baseball, we wouldn't be anywhere near the cellar. Right? I know that doesn't matter a whole bunch, but we're pretty close to .500, and I'm not a big believer on screwing up the chemistry and taking away ABs from guys that have earned it.

The chemistry matters if you tick off guys like Roberts or Markakis or Huff... guys that ARE going to be here next year, and you have those guys stop believing in the manager.

LOL...Are you serious? You are talking the team chemistry? This is freakin hilarious.

What are we talking about that is so bad that it will hurt team chemistry? benching Ramon more? Playing Millar less?

Are you kidding me? You are worried about this? Wow.

BTW, when Trax was dealt to the Cubs last year, he said that the O's clubhouse was one of the best he was in...and that was near the end of the season.

[BaltimoreTerp]

C'mon. You don't have to be insulting. I mean, how would you feel if I said you sound just like SG?

Well, if it is this case I wouldn't care, since he's mostly right. Other then that whole dismissing opinions outright thing, of course

You do realize that, in just about every other division in baseball, we wouldn't be anywhere near the cellar. Right? I know that doesn't matter a whole bunch, but we're pretty close to .500, and I'm not a big believer on screwing up the chemistry and taking away ABs from guys that have earned it.

We're in last place in our division and nowhere near the wild card. This year no longer matters.

I couldn't give any less of a crap about the feelings of Kevin Millar or Jay Payton if they are blocking someone who might actually be here next year.

The chemistry matters if you tick off guys like Roberts or Markakis or Huff... guys that ARE going to be here next year, and you have those guys stop believing in the manager.

[El Gordo]

IF Ramon is traded, Wieters is called up. If not, then he stays in Bowie. That's seems pretty clear to me, despite all the whining to the contrary.

[BaltimoreTerp]

Just because Wieters is mashing the ball, does it really mean he's ready for a promotion to the bigs? What happens if he comes up and then hits .100 and then next season he completely tanks? Is he even ready to call a major league game?

The chances of him doing that right now are exactly the same as those of him doing that to start next season after finishing this season in Bowie, or in 2010 after a full season at Norfolk.

Now we are just getting into ridiculous rationalizations here.

Look, if people don't think Wieters is ready, or that the front office is right here, that's fine. I disagree, and I will argue why I disagree and why I think you all are wrong. But let's not start with the ridiculous what-ifs and rationalizations for keeping Wieters in the minors.

[Mashed Potatoes]

Wieters vs other Top 10 College Bats since 2005

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Lets look at the college bats selected Top 10 overall since 2005, outside of Wieters...

2007

LaPorta (7th) - 115 Rookie / A ball at bats in 2007, AA to start 2008

2006

Longoria (3rd) - 143 A at bats in 2006, AA/AAA during 2007

Stubbs (8th) - 210 Rookie at bats in 2006, A ball in 2007, A+ 2008

2005

Gordon (2nd) - AA to start 2006

Clement (3rd) - 124 A at bats in 2005, AA/AAA in 2006

Zimmerman (4th) - 17 A at bats in 2005, moved to AA, bigs 2006

Braun (5th) - 193 A at bats in 2005 (778 OPS), A/AA in 2006, 117 AAA at bats in 2007

Tulowitzki (7th) - 94 A at bats in 2005, AA in 2006

Only Clement was a catcher out of those players, and he spent a full two years in the minors. Wieters will enter the majors after only spending one year in the minors. Far from conservative. Furthermore, this doesn't address Tony's points about learning to call games and working with multiple coaches with their own individual expertise.

What this shows me is that most Top 10 college bats who started pro-ball the year they were drafted... go to A to get their feet wet for limited at-bats... no different then Wieters going to Hawaii (except most consider the Hawaiian Winter League to be AA caliber, and he got 107 at-bats there)

When these players began their first full year in a system.. 6 out of the other 8 went right to AA... why did he go to A-ball?

And after he showed success in his 100 at-bats, why did he stay?

Why did they leave Wieters in Frederick for 229 at-bats?

More at-bats in A-ball vs anyone on this list, except for Stubbs....

You can't claim it was lack of success... as his A ball numbers exceeded everyone else on this list...

You could just as easily say if the HWL was not of higher quality, why did MW have an OPS 230pts higher at Frederick?

Have you ever considered that his numbers exceeded everyone else's on the list because of the way we handled him, not despite it? You're so caught up in your own explanation that you can't see the very real and legitimate alternatives.

You can point to the catcher reason, and fine I'll accept that was their rationale... but it was poor rationale from the Warehouse.

When Wieters makes the Majors, who is he likely to work with sooner..... Tillman, Bergesen, Hernandez, Berken or Arrieta, Erbe etc?

I think this illustrates perfectly that he A) Shouldve started 2008 at Bowie, or B) At the very least, been there 150 at-bats sooner...

Any defensive work he was doing at Frederick, could also have been accomplished at Bowie.

With a polished talent like Matt Wieters you know he's going to the majors, so the approach should be, what is best for Matt Wieters. I think working with the coaches the O's thought he should work with is more important than the players. A) We don't even know if these players will actually be joining Wieters in the majors in any significant role due to injury or lack of performance, B) Erbe and Arrieta are still in Frederick, according to your promotion plan he may not have caught them at all. C) The extra 200 at bats at catcher say he gets at AA would've translated to about 40 games, or probably about 6-7 starts with the other guys you mentioned. I'm sorry but that familiarity doesn't take years to develop, and that rationale does not outweigh having Matt Wieters work with the coaches the O's wanted him to work with.

Wieters is talented enough, he will be successful whenever he arrives in the bigs… and certainly regardless of spending a month or two longer than he should have at Frederick…. But really, that is not the point… the point is what prepared him better.

Can't you see the internal tension in your own argument. If Wieters is talented enough that he will be successful whenever he makes it to the bigs, then the nature of his preparation does not play a role. What matters is how long it takes for him to get there, and under the current plan, it'll be 1 year, which is great! If Wieters can't simply succeed in the majors on talent alone and his preparation does matter, then how can you complain about a guy who has progressed to arguably the number one prospect in baseball?

I give no credit to Player Development for Wieters Minor League success……..

He was at a level where he obviously overmatched the competition, and he dominated there… they get credit for that?

He goes to a level he should have been at from the beginning… and he dominates there…. they get credit for that?

If they were working on his defensive skills at Frederick, and you want to credit them for that…… fine… myself, I would fault them for not having the foresight to bring that roving defensive instructor with Wieters to Bowie. It is 55 miles from Frederick to Bowie… it is a pretty drivable distance.

Wieters is going to be a Major League success, whenever he arrives due to his talent…

Wieters is going to be a Major League success, regardless of spending an extra 100-200 at-bats at Frederick…. I'm not arguing against that…. Only that he would have been that much better prepared for his arrival in the bigs, with more time in Bowie…. And even further prepared to produce regularly in 2009, with extended time in the bigs to end 2008.

The bolded lines are nonsense. Your biggest mistake is assuming that Wieters' success is a sole product of his talent. You have to acknowledge the possibility that Wieters overmatched AA because of his preparation in A+, because of the path player development decided to take. It is very possible that he would've struggled or been merely average in AA had he jumped straight there. It might've delayed his development to the point that he wasn't ready for the majors in 2009. Again, you'll say it's all talent, but if we take that argument to its end won't his talent shine through once he makes it to the majors? I guess preparation doesn't help you succeed in the minors it's only important when you make it to the majors.

Still haven't addressed the fact that Ramone's still on the team, would you just bench him? Trade him for a bag of balls and pay half his salary?

[Flosman]

Did the point really fly over your head that quickly?

The point was that you have no idea what is going to happen in the next 6 years. We may not want him back..He may sign an extension...He may get rid of Boras...He may leave via FA and we may say we wish we had him another year...All of that is possible.

How much value to the organization does Wieters 2014 season potentially have? Is the value of 100 ABs this season and another 100 at the start of next season more valuable? Who the heck knows. But I would say if he is the real deal I take 2014. I really find your position on this inconsistant with what you usually take. Matt is proving to have more potential than any guy we have had in our system since Eddie, he has multi- MVP type talent. Will he make it to that level? I have no idea. Will he sign an extension? again no idea? is there a risk of losing the best year of a HOFers career so we see him hit a few homers and can stop enjoing the play of Ramon the rest of the season? without a doubt. To act as if calling him up occurs in some vacum is not taking the long view IMO.

BTW nothing flew above my head. Your anology was flawed IMO. I would have expected you to make the argument that as a catcher projecting what kind of player he is 7 years from now is much more volitale than other position players. Which I think is a reasonable case to make and really is the one thing that says to me have him start the game tomorrow in Baltimore.