I really want to keep Villar (Update: Traded to Marlins for LHS Easton Lucas)

[Roll Tide]

I'm truly disgusted with the direction of the Orioles! I am pissed that the Angelos families ownership has wasted all of my adult life with their shenanigans! But this takes the cake as the worst thing I've ever seen. The inability to get anything of value for Villar and are now giving him away for free.

Not caring about the fans that pay for the product or even MASN cable dues.

 

[Beef Supreme]

26 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

Frobby, Hes produced 3.9 and 4.0 in two of the last 4 seasons and he's only 28 (so in his prime). There is no reason to believe that he can't be in the ballpark for the next 2-4 years.

The point is the Orioles have piss poorly managed this situation. They could have extended him at a reasonable cost last offseason, or even in the 1st half.

There handling of this situation stinks and Elias has done nothing on the player side of the business to instill confidence.

For me there are two reasons to believe Villar could fall short of 4 WAR or even 3 WAR for the next 2 - 4 years. Firstly, my eye test leads me to think that he is a worse fielder than his 2019 0.0 dWAR illustrates. With age, I could see him going into the negative with dWAR.
Secondly, in the 4.0 and 3.9 WAR seasons, Villar tallied 40 and 62 stolen bases respectively, which had a substantial impact. His reflexes could dim as he continues to mature. I could see him dropping into the high teens in steals as early as 2020. If that happens, he could fall to a 2 WAR player in the blink of an eye and continue to drop from there.

[Roll Tide]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I think that mostly just leads to bad contracts being handed out.  Is the fanbase going to be happier if all the low salary teams sign a 32 year old to a 4/40 contract?

Don't the NBA and NFL have mechanisms in place to help teams shed truly onerous contracts?

No baseball is a different animal! But I don't believe the money will be socked away for use later. The payroll is $100 million below just the the TV revenue we know about. And again I think this couldve been done a season ago for 18 million over 3 years

[atomic]

7 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

 

I think that mostly just leads to bad contracts being handed out.  Is the fanbase going to be happier if all the low salary teams sign a 32 year old to a 4/40 contract?

Don't the NBA and NFL have mechanisms in place to help teams shed truly onerous contracts?

They can use their salaries however they want.  This is like the fifth faulty argument I have seen in this thread. 

NFL has no guaranteed contracts.  Signing bonus is spread out over length of contract for salary cap purposes.  If you cut before last year you take a big hit as all teaming salary cap hits against that years cap.
 

 

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Roll Tide said:

No baseball is a different animal! But I don't believe the money will be socked away for use later. The payroll is $100 million below just the the TV revenue we know about. And again I think this couldve been done a season ago for 18 million over 3 years

I think money saved is money that goes to the owners.

I just don't think that a salary floor leads to a better fan experience, I think it leads to more bad contracts.

[Roll Tide]

5 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

For me there are two reasons to believe Villar could fall short of 4 WAR or even 3 WAR for the next 2 - 4 years. Firstly, my eye test leads me to think that he is a worse fielder than his 2019 0.0 dWAR illustrates. With age, I could see him going into the negative with dWAR.
Also, in the 4.0 and 3.9WAR seasons, Villar tallied 40 and 62 stolen bases respectively, which had a substantial impact. His reflexes could dim as he continues to mature. I could see him dropping into the high teens in steals as early as 2020. If that happens, he could fall to a 2 WAR player in a blink of the eye and continue to drop from there.

Maybe at 33 ....Very unlikely at 29 or 30

[Roll Tide]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think money saved is money that goes to the owners.

I just don't think that a salary floor leads to a better fan experience, I think it leads to more bad contracts.

But why should poor owners get revenue sharing money and be allowed to pocket it?

[atomic]

4 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think money saved is money that goes to the owners.

I just don't think that a salary floor leads to a better fan experience, I think it leads to more bad contracts.

So you think if Elias has to have a salary floor he is so incompetent that he would sign a mediocre 32 year old to a 4 year contract? 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

But why should poor owners get revenue sharing money and be allowed to pocket it?

Because it's their team.

[MurphDogg]

4 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Secondly, in the 4.0 and 3.9 WAR seasons, Villar tallied 40 and 62 stolen bases respectively, which had a substantial impact.

Nope. Stolen bases do not have a substantial impact in WAR.

In 2016, it likely had slightly above a neutral impact on his WAR because he was caught 18 times, for a stolen base percentage of 77.5% which is just above the break even point.

Last season he stole 40 and was only caught 9 times for a percentage of 81.6% so though they were a net positive, they were again not a huge impact.

The area that he outperformed in 2019 was baserunning as a whole. He was, statistically speaking, the most valuable baserunner in baseball at 10.5 runs above average. Mallex Smith and Christian Yelich were second at 8.5 runs above average.

From 2016-18 he was 3.5 (the 62 steals year), 2.6 and 3.3 runs above average.This includes not only steals and caught stealing but extra bases taken on singles and doubles and not being thrown out on the basepaths. 

He is projected to only be 3 runs above average next year, which would be responsible for about a .7 drop in his total WAR projection versus if he repeated his 2019 baserunning performance.

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because it's their team.

LOL ..... Absurd

[atomic]

8 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

But why should poor owners get revenue sharing money and be allowed to pocket it?

I think this is something that will be targeted at the next CBA negotiations.  I am sure teams like the Yankees, Dodgers, and Red Sox are not happy that they have to do revenue sharing and the other teams are just pocketing  the money.  

[Roll Tide]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Nope. Stolen bases do not have a substantial impact in WAR.

In 2016, it likely had slightly above a neutral impact on his WAR because he was caught 18 times, for a stolen base percentage of 77.5% which is just above the break even point.

Last season he stole 40 and was only caught 9 times for a percentage of 81.6% so though they were a net positive, they were again not a huge impact.

The area that he outperformed in 2019 was baserunning as a whole. He was, statistically speaking, the most valuable baserunner in baseball at 10.5 runs above average. Mallex Smith and Christian Yelich were second at 8.5 runs above average.

From 2016-18 he was 3.5 (the 62 steals year), 2.6 and 3.3 runs above average.This includes not only steals and caught stealing but extra bases taken on singles and doubles and not being thrown out on the basepaths. 

He is projected to only be 3 runs above average next year, which would be responsible for about a .7 drop in his total WAR projection versus if he repeated his 2019 baserunning performance.

 

I wont argue the statistical data listed here.

I will say this ....62 times this year he advanced a base without making an out. That gave the next hitter an AB with a runner in scoring position. I don't know what the success rate of him being driven in was but even at 25 percent that an additional 15 runs.

 

 

 

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

LOL ..... Absurd

Nice rebuttal.

They bought the team.  The Royals just went for a billion, the Royals.  People buy teams because they are insanely profitable.  If you were to spend a billion on something wouldn't you want a sold ROE?

[Roll Tide]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

Nice rebuttal.

They bought the team.  The Royals just went for a billion, the Royals.  People buy teams because they are insanely profitable.  If you were to spend a billion on something wouldn't you want a sold ROE?

Most of the good sports owners buy sports teams as toys...Not ROE!