Orioles Free Agents

[wildcard]

3 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

Why wouldn’t you spend money if you can create value? You have to put a team on the field and I think a smart GM would prefer to spend an extra M or two for a guy like Anderson over the Eshelmans of the world. Super low risk.

I’m not sure about Minaya, Shreve, or Winkler. I’d think they all should get a MLB deal, but I’m not sure about the strength of the reliever market, Shreve seems the most likely to settle for a MiLB deal and ST invite.

Its not what you or I would do.   Its what Elias will do.  And so far I have not seen Elias use the strategy of signing players to trade them in July.   It might happen but he has given no indication that is the direction he is headed IMO.

[Luke-OH]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Its not what you or I would do.   Its what Elias will do.  And so far I have not seen Elias use the strategy of signing players to trade them in July.   It might happen but he has given no indication that is the direction he is headed IMO.

It’s not about spinning him off in July, he has three years of team control. It’s about him eating innings cheaply and maybe turning into a useful trade piece down the road or maybe a veteran piece of a winning team in 2022.

If you are Elias and one of your biggest successes in Houston was taking talented MLB pitchers who weren’t quite living up to their potential and tweaking some mechanical and pitch mix things to unlock their talent, wouldn’t you try to do the same with the O’s. 

Examples:

Will Harris - was 30 when the Astros acquired him in 2015

Ryan Pressley- was 29 when the Astros acquired him in 2018

Then you have Colin McHugh (who was younger, 26) and Cole and Verlander who were much higher risk acquisitions than the O’s can or should swing at this point. 

But the point is, part of the rebuild was grabbing established players who could be optimized, I see zero reason why that wouldn’t be a tool in Elias’s toolbox here.

 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, Luke-OH said:

It’s not about spinning him off in July, he has three years of team control. It’s about him eating innings cheaply and maybe turning into a useful trade piece down the road or maybe a veteran piece of a winning team in 2022.

If you are Elias and one of your biggest successes in Houston was taking talented MLB pitchers who weren’t quite living up to their potential and tweaking some mechanical and pitch mix things to unlock their talent, wouldn’t you try to do the same with the O’s. 

Examples:

Will Harris - was 30 when the Astros acquired him in 2015

Ryan Pressley- was 29 when the Astros acquired him in 2018

Then you have Colin McHugh (who was younger, 26) and Cole and Verlander who were much higher risk acquisitions than the O’s can or should swing at this point. 

But the point is, part of the rebuild was grabbing established players who could be optimized, I see zero reason why that wouldn’t be a tool in Elias’s toolbox here.

 

Harris was making the minimum when acquired by the Astros.

Mchugh was a minor leaguer when acquired by the Astros.

And Pressley has was acquired at the July deadline when the Astros were in a pennant race in 2018.

Meanwhile  Anderson made 2.65m last season and  the O's are projected to lose again isn 2020.  

Very different situations then the O's are in now.

Maybe in 2021 the O's will be spending because the O's will be ready to  try to move up in the standings.

As I said, so far there is not indication that the O's are ready to go in that direction this off season.   If that changes  I would agree with you.

[Luke-OH]

16 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Harris was making the minimum when acquired by the Astros.

Mchugh was a minor leaguer when acquired by the Astros.

And Pressley has was acquired at the July deadline when the Astros were in a pennant race in 2018.

Meanwhile  Anderson made 2.65m last season and  the O's are projected to lose again isn 2020.  

Very different situations then the O's are in now.

Maybe in 2021 the O's will be spending because the O's will be ready to  try to move up in the standings.

As I said, so far there is not indication that the O's are ready to go in that direction this off season.   If that changes  I would agree with you.

Coming off a 51-111 season 2013, they traded Jordan Lyles (pre-arb) and Brandon Barnes (pre-arb) for Dexter Fowler who made 4.25M in 2013 and was set to get a serious raise (ended up at 7.35M in 2014). They also signed Scott Feldman for 12M that offseason and paid 2.75M for reliever Chad Qualls.

 

[wildcard]

7 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

Coming off a 51-111 season 2013, they traded Jordan Lyles (pre-arb) and Brandon Barnes (pre-arb) for Dexter Fowler who made 4.25M in 2013 and was set to get a serious raise (ended up at 7.35M in 2014). They also signed Scott Feldman for 12M that offseason and paid 2.75M for reliever Chad Qualls.

 

Totally agree.  After losing big for two years and accumulating  high draft choices in 2012, 2013,  June of 2014 Jeff Luhnow was ready to spend some money  in the rebuild after the 2013 season..   The would be equivalent  to  Elias spending after losing  2019 and 2020.

[Luke-OH]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Totally agree.  After losing big for two years and accumulating  high draft choices in 2012, 2013,  June of 2014 Jeff Luhnow was ready to spend some money  in the rebuild after the 2013 season..   The would be equivalent  to  Elias spending after losing  2019 and 2020.

The Astros signed 2 free agents for 1M+ in the 2012-2013 offseason if you want to make that argument. 

[sportsfan8703]

I know this sounds hilarious but don’t we need to find out what we have before we sign FAs that take 40 and 25 man spots. 

I’m not going to run down all the names on the pitching side of the 40 man, that would be depressing on a Friday morning, but what the heck do we have in these guys...

Tanner Scott, Phillips, Kline, Fry, Armstrong, Tate, and Harvey????

 

[waroriole]

9 hours ago, wildcard said:

Totally agree.  After losing big for two years and accumulating  high draft choices in 2012, 2013,  June of 2014 Jeff Luhnow was ready to spend some money  in the rebuild after the 2013 season..   The would be equivalent  to  Elias spending after losing  2019 and 2020.

Are we still doing that thing where we can only project Oriole moves based on what Houston did? That’s really tired and illogical. 

[Luke-OH]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

I know this sounds hilarious but don’t we need to find out what we have before we sign FAs that take 40 and 25 man spots. 

I’m not going to run down all the names on the pitching side of the 40 man, that would be depressing on a Friday morning, but what the heck do we have in these guys...

Tanner Scott, Phillips, Kline, Fry, Armstrong, Tate, and Harvey????

 

Well, even with a conservative estimate the O’s will need to replace 300 innings from 2019 (players who are gone or will be gone). That jumps to 500+ if you aren’t enthused by Ynoa, Shepherd, and Hess.

Injuries happen as well, there are plenty of innings to go around to internal candidates to add a buy low arm or two that the FO thinks they could get something out of.

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, waroriole said:

Are we still doing that thing where we can only project Oriole moves based on what Houston did? That’s really tired and illogical. 

I guess you didn't read the thread.  Luke actually started the comparison with the Astros.   I just responded.

So I guess you are calling Luke tired and illogical.  I don't think he is.

[Camden_yardbird]

On 10/24/2019 at 6:15 AM, wildcard said:

Last season the highest the O's went for talent from outside the organization was 850K.    The O's are projected to lose again in 2020.  I don't think the O's will spend more than 1m on any  outside from outside the organization this off season.  Why do you think they will go higher?

Anderson is 30 years old next  season.  He is not part of the O's next playoff team.   I doubt the O's spend for him.  

Do you think the O's can get Minaya, Shreve or Winkler of minor league contracts?

Please forget this line of thinking: "This player will not be part of the next playoff team so why spend money on him."

Building a playoff team is about increasing value of assets whether that is through player development or finding undervalued players that you can later leverage for better core pieces.  Turning an undervalued pitcher into a piece someone can use at the trade deadline is how the Padres have Fernando Tatis Jr., a player you would certainly consider a "playoff piece."

[weams]

I think the Orioles will spend little unallocated money. And trade off assets as well. 

[wildcard]

4 hours ago, weams said:

I think the Orioles will spend little unallocated money. And trade off assets as well. 

I agree with the general lack of spending.

I think the O's only trade valued assets over the off season if they get something  in return they think will help them in the future.

[weams]

 

[Luke-OH]

19 minutes ago, weams said:

 

Quick assessment

Del Pozo is 27, LHP who averages 94-95 with the fastball, but it is flat and straight and didn't play well in a short MLB debut. Curveball is a solid out pitch but he'll need a wrinkle on the fastball (a 2S or change to spin axis) to be a useful MLB guy. Relatively young, controllable lefty velocity isn't nothing though.

Cowart, 27, failed position player, converting to the mound, apparently has t98, but hasn't had any success, project if anything. 

Garcia is 32 and doesn't have much control left so probably isn't a fit with the Orioles, but he is an interesting bounce-back guy in general. He still averages 97mph on his tailing fastball and has a solid slider and split. The only difference between him being an effective reliever and his poor 2019 is location, leaving too many pitches in the middle of the plate. 

Tropeano, 29, blah stuff

Bour 31, limited control, 1B only, but he can hit a little bit, would be useful 1B/DH depth on a team that needs it (not the Orioles)