How long before Elias promotes the young starters at AAA?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Its the If.    If Mountcastle is a good hitter but is only a DH the O's may trade him or Nunez next off season.

If he doesn't play well enough to have trade value he won't be traded since it would make more sense to try and further develop him instead of trading low.

Trading Mountcastle after a partial year in the majors just doesn't make sense for the O's with their current situation.  Not unless some team gives a crazy evaluation.

[spiritof66]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

So if he O's were 8th in the AL in runs in the 2nd half and they add Hays and Mountcastle they should probably be higher than 7th which average.    Just saying'.

Can I get a couple of what you're having? On second thought, I think I tried that back around 2009 and it didn't help.

I applaud the effort, but a similar approach could make any team in the AL East look much better than the Orioles. 

And you didn't mention the defense, probably a good idea. It won't be very good - almost certainly the worst in the division. I guess you could build it up with projections like "Villar made a few really good plays at SS this year, so he can be a plus defender there in 2020." 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

If he doesn't play well enough to have trade value he won't be traded since it would make more sense to try and further develop him instead of trading low.

Trading Mountcastle after a partial year in the majors just doesn't make sense for the O's with their current situation.  Not unless some team gives a crazy evaluation.

Partial year?  He is probably going to play at least 5 months with the O's in 2020.  A 23/24 year old who is a good hitter probably has trade value.  I think he will hit.   The question is can he hold down a defensive position?

[Luke-OH]

Just now, wildcard said:

The question is can he hold down a defensive position?

If you think Mancini can acceptably hold down a defensive position, then you've got nothing to worry about with Mountcastle. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Partial year?  He is probably going to play at least 5 months with the O's in 2020.  A 23/24 year old who is a good hitter probably has trade value.  I think he will hit.   The question is can he hold down a defensive position?

Right partial year, as in "Hey they manipulated his service time.".

Why don't you know how old he is?

I didn't say a good hitting Mountcastle wouldn't have trade value, but why would you keep Mancini over him?

[wildcard]

4 minutes ago, spiritof66 said:

Can I get a couple of what you're having? On second thought, I think I tried that back around 2009 and it didn't help.

I applaud the effort, but a similar approach could make any team in the AL East look much better than the Orioles. 

And you didn't mention the defense, probably a good idea. It won't be very good - almost certainly the worst in the division. I guess you could build it up with projections like "Villar made a few really good plays at SS this year, so he can be a plus defender there in 2020." 

There defense should be average.  Hays in CF and Alberto at 2B should be above average.   Mancini at 1B, Santander in RF are average. Villar is a high error SS.  Probably around 20 errors but he has good range at short and a strong arm.  Ruiz is average defensively at 3B but I think Wilkerson will be similar and hit better.   The catching is below average and Mountcastle projects to below average in left.  

Overall I rate the team average defensively next season.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Luke-OH said:

If you think Mancini can acceptably hold down a defensive position, then you've got nothing to worry about with Mountcastle. 

Thanks for the Mountcastle endorsement.  I have not seen him play at 1B or LF.   The scouting reports put him at Mancini's range in left.  Which is somewhat below average.  His arm is worse than Mancini's from what I have read. I don't see how his routes can be a good as Mancini is now.  That is why I see him as Mancini in his rookie year defensively.

At first,   They say he has good hands.    He just does not have the experience there the Mancini has.    

If you are saying Mountcastle has the physical skills and potential to be as good as Mancini I can believe that.  But without the experience at either position I have to rate him lower than Mancini right now defensively at both positions.

How does that sound to you?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

Thanks for the Mountcastle endorsement.  I have not seen him play at 1B or LF.   The scouting reports put him at Mancini's range in left.  Which is somewhat below average.  His arm is worse than Mancini's from what I have read. I don't see how his routes can be a good as Mancini is now.  That is why I see him as Mancini in his rookie year defensively.

At first,   They say he has good hands.    He just does not have the experience there the Mancini has.    

If you are saying Mountcastle has the physical skills and potential to be as good as Mancini I can believe that.  But without the experience at either position I have to rate him lower than Mancini right now defensively at both positions.

How does that sound to you?

Please share, I haven't seen much in the way of reports from his short time in the outfield.

I did see some nice Twitter clips but that isn't the same thing.

[wildcard]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Right partial year, as in "Hey they manipulated his service time.".

Why don't you know how old he is?

I didn't say a good hitting Mountcastle wouldn't have trade value, but why would you keep Mancini over him?

Mancini is at least an average 1B defensively.   I don't know that Mountcastle is or will be.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

Mancini is at least an average 1B defensively.   I don't know that Mountcastle is or will be.

I'll go with Mancini is at most an average 1B defensively.

Do you rate a bit of defense at first more highly than the difference in age, cost and years of team control?

[wildcard]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Please share, I haven't seen much in the way of reports from his short time in the outfield.

I did see some nice Twitter clips but that isn't the same thing.

From Orioles.com

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Arm: 40 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55

His speed is below average.  That effects his play in LF.   Mancini also has below average speed.  Mountcastle's  arm is poor.  Kendall says Mountcastle's arm plays a little better in LF but I have to think its still below average.   Mancini arm is average in LF so better than Mountcastle.  No way Mountcastle has enough experience in LF for his route to be that good.   Mancini routes have improved in  his three seasons in the outfield.  So Mancini routes are bound to be better than Mountcastle's

[Frobby]

49 minutes ago, wildcard said:

 

So if he O's were 8th in the AL in runs in the 2nd half and they add Hays and Mountcastle they should probably be higher than 7th which average.    Just saying'.

I don’t assume that the second half is more important than the first half in predicting 2020 performance.    And, they had Hays for a good chunk of September when they finished 9th.   Overall, the offense is much better than the pitching but my mid-case projection would have them as a somewhat below average offensive team in 2020, assuming that the team stands pat and doesn’t trade Villar, Mancini etc.  That’s not to say they couldn’t surprise and finish average or slightly better, but that’s not the most likely scenario IMO.    A lot would have to go right, and of course, I hope it does.   

[wildcard]

9 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I'll go with Mancini is at most an average 1B defensively.

OK, opinions may vary.  But Mancini's experience and arm there probably makes him better defensively at 1B than Mountcastle.  That is my guess.

[mdbdotcom]

Just now, wildcard said:

OK, opinions may vary.  But Mancini's experience and arm there probably makes him better defensively at 1B than Mountcastle.  That is my guess.

Then you've never seen Mancini botch a play on a ground ball hit between he and the pitcher. All those reps in ST and he still can't seem to get it.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

From Orioles.com

 

Scouting grades: Hit: 55 | Power: 55 | Run: 45 | Arm: 40 | Field: 45 | Overall: 55

His speed is below average.  That effects his play in LF.   Mancini also has below average speed.  Mountcastle's  arm is poor.  Kendall says Mountcastle's arm plays a little better in LF but I have to think its still below average.   Mancini arm is average in LF so better than Mountcastle.  No way Mountcastle has enough experience in LF for his route to be that good.   Mancini routes have improved in  his three seasons in the outfield.  So Mancini routes are bound to be better than Mountcastle's

So an orioles.com blurb is what you are basing opinions on?

Just that?  I'll wait until a few more reports come in.

From what I have read the main issue with Mountcastle's arm isn't raw strength, it was the throwing motion was unsuited to the infield.