Trade Bait 2020

[Legend_Of_Joey]

On 11/25/2019 at 5:11 PM, Can_of_corn said:

I'm sure one of them would bring back a big return.

Would they have room for all of those batting practice balls?

[sportsfan8703]

7 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to chalk this up to some error in the reporting.    We’ll see what happens tomorrow.

The “smartest” guy in the room may have done something that nobody in baseball understands. 

[thezeroes]

It may be they "Requested" Waivers on Villar and he is not placed on them until 2PM today.

This could be an Outright Assignment Waiver, which gets further explained here:

https://www.thecubreporter.com/book/export/html/3525

Explained Here:

Right to Refuse Outright Assignment or Elect Free-Agency if Outrighted

Per Article XIX-A of the CBA, any player on an MLB 40-man roster who has accrued at least five years of MLB Service Time (as well as an international player with Article XIX-A contractual rights) has the right to refuse an Outright Assignment to the minors, or the player can elect to be a free-agent immediately upon being outrighted, or he can accept the Outright Assignment and defer his option to elect free-agency until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season.

However, an Article XIX-A player who accepts an Outright Assignment and defers his option to elect free-agency until after the conclusion of the MLB regular season forfeits his right to elect free-agency (as an Article XIX-A minor league free-agent) if he is added back to an MLB 40-man roster prior to the conclusion of the MLB regular season.

If a player with Article XIX-A rights refuses an Outright Assignment but does not elect free-agency, the club must either retain the player on the club's MLB Reserve List (40-man roster), trade the player, or give the player his unconditional release.

If a player with Article XIX-A rights is outrighted and elects to be a free-agent immediately, his contract is terminated and he receives no termination pay. But if the player accepts the Outright Assignment and defers his right to be a free-agent until the conclusion of the MLB regular season, the player continues to get paid, receiving the balance of his salary through to the end of the season. And then if the outrighted player is not subsequently added back to an MLB 40-man roster prior to the conclusion of the MLB regular season, the player can elect free-agency anytime beginning on the day after the conclusion of the MLB regular season through October 15th.

A player with Article XIX-A rights can waive his right to refuse an outright assignment or elect free-agency if outrighted, but the waiver cannot be signed more than ten days prior to MLB Opening Day, the player has the right to designate in advance which minor league team to which he can be assigned, and the waiver automatically expires if the player is not outrighted to the minors within 45 days or by the 45th day of the MLB regular season (whichever is later).

[bobmc]

1 hour ago, Legend_Of_Joey said:

Would I have room in my backpack for all of those batting practice balls?

FTFY - I know we all love hearing about your latest "snatch"!  

[ScGO's]

Update

Traded already

Jonathan Villar - Fringe LHP prospect in return.  Elias got flack; I see his reasoning; at least he got something

Dylan Bundy - 4 RHPs with two of them being fairly decent quality.  Will be interesting to see how they do in our system as a couple were recent draft picks as well.

Hot Market 

Mychael Givens - Elias has got to be on the phone for him daily.  Still a lot of teams need reliever help and these FA signings have been fairly expensive.  Not a lot left on the reliever market either. Someone has to bite on Givens soon.  I would be surprised if he is here by Opening Day.  I'm thinking a similar return as Bundy

Trey Mancini - There are a few teams that could upgrade at first base.  Not much left on the free agent market besides bounce back candidates.  I would think Elias is fielding a lot of calls on him, but he should be asking for the moon, so who knows if pulls the trigger.  This might be the highest his market ever is though, unless he absolutely mashes going into the trade deadline.

Quiet Market

Hanser Alberto - This could be his peak value as well, but there isn't much of a market for a player of his profile.  I could see him being swung near opening day if a need pops up for a team, especially in the National League.  Probably brings back a prospect or two, Maybe a B and C level.

Miguel Castro - Entering into his 4th year of service.  This is a very climatic year for him, and I would like to see what a year of analytics does for him.  He has heat, some deception, and if he can keep the walks down, his value could spike. 

Trying to Rebuild Value by the Trade Deadline

Richard Bleier - Elias thought he was worth arbitration.  If he can look like his pre-surgery self, he could bring us back a piece.  The trade market has been hot for relievers the past couple of seasons at the trade deadline.

Alex Cobb - Without Bundy, we are relying on Cobb for a lot of innings this year.  If he can stay healthy and be somewhat decent, he could have a market, especially the way pitchers have been signed or traded this year. If he can be league average or higher, his contract is not as awful, but we will have to eat some.

 

[Frobby]

I think teams will be interested in Alberto if he has another season at 2+ WAR.   Folks aren’t convinced yet, but they could be.   

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I think teams will be interested in Alberto if he has another season at 2+ WAR.   Folks aren’t convinced yet, but they could be.   

A lot depends on whether he hits righties this coming season.

[Philip]

Alberto, as is, has some value And with an additional spot on the roster, A decreased emphasis on specialist base stealers, ,and a limit on the number of pitchers, there might be some value in a versatile platoon guy. But not much. I think we keep him.

[Frobby]

On 12/28/2019 at 9:23 PM, wildcard said:

A lot depends on whether he hits righties this coming season.

And whether he hits lefties as well as he did last season (which he presumably won’t).     But I’d say so long as he keeps his overall OPS at .700 or so (he finished at .751 last year), his defense will allow him to be a 2 WAR player with some trade value.  

[sportsfan8703]

With Castellanos still on the market I think there is no chance we traded Mancini, and should tell us what his value is to other teams.  Even though I'm with the whole tear everything to the ground, which we're very close, I think at this point that Mancini is worth more to us than he would net us in a trade.  Maybe that will be different come deadline time.  

I don't see how the Givens market is "hot".  We haven't heard any rumors regarding him other than that the Phils and Yanks were interested at last year's trade deadline.  6 weeks till pitchers report for ST.  I don't think Givens is a good fit for us, because we'll use him more of a firestopper, than as a closer.  That's not a great way to build value, unless he absolutely crushes it.  He won't have too many easy innings.  

[WalkWithElias]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

With Castellanos still on the market I think there is no chance we traded Mancini, and should tell us what his value is to other teams.  Even though I'm with the whole tear everything to the ground, which we're very close, I think at this point that Mancini is worth more to us than he would net us in a trade.  Maybe that will be different come deadline time.  

I don't see how the Givens market is "hot".  We haven't heard any rumors regarding him other than that the Phils and Yanks were interested at last year's trade deadline.  6 weeks till pitchers report for ST.  I don't think Givens is a good fit for us, because we'll use him more of a firestopper, than as a closer.  That's not a great way to build value, unless he absolutely crushes it.  He won't have too many easy innings.  

Agreed on "hot" classification. I'd say things are "percolating" to flashback to a prior era. I expect Givens to get moved. Mancini I'm less sure of. It was one thing to deal Cashner for a few scratch-offs, but nobody in town had much attachment to him as a player. Not that ticket sales are great now, but trading Mancini for a couple C+ prospects would be a PR nightmare worse than what we'll already be seeing: "Orioles 2020: We Suck Again."

[sportsfan8703]

2 hours ago, WalkWithElias said:

Agreed on "hot" classification. I'd say things are "percolating" to flashback to a prior era. I expect Givens to get moved. Mancini I'm less sure of. It was one thing to deal Cashner for a few scratch-offs, but nobody in town had much attachment to him as a player. Not that ticket sales are great now, but trading Mancini for a couple C+ prospects would be a PR nightmare worse than what we'll already be seeing: "Orioles 2020: We Suck Again."

Mancini isn't going anywhere.  Guys like Ozuna and Castellanos don't have a big market.  Our best hope is that Mancini is the best available bat come trade deadline time.  I think we'd have to basically give away Givens at this point.  Their salaries aren't high.  I think we're done with trades till the deadline.  Hopefully Cobb can pull a Cashner.  

[wildbillhiccup]

9 minutes ago, sportsfan8703 said:

Mancini isn't going anywhere.  Guys like Ozuna and Castellanos don't have a big market.  Our best hope is that Mancini is the best available bat come trade deadline time.  I think we'd have to basically give away Givens at this point.  Their salaries aren't high.  I think we're done with trades till the deadline.  Hopefully Cobb can pull a Cashner.  

Not so sure about Castellanos...there have been quite a few teams linked to him. If they're going to keep a guy to sell tickets it's going to be Mancini, so I don't imagine they'll move him unless they're overwhelmed. And at this point I think Givens has lost so much shine he's probably more valuable to us then what we could get in return. So in a nutshell I don't think we currently have any "hot" trade commodities. 

[wildbillhiccup]

2 hours ago, sportsfan8703 said:

With Castellanos still on the market I think there is no chance we traded Mancini, and should tell us what his value is to other teams.  Even though I'm with the whole tear everything to the ground, which we're very close, I think at this point that Mancini is worth more to us than he would net us in a trade.  Maybe that will be different come deadline time.  

I don't see how the Givens market is "hot".  We haven't heard any rumors regarding him other than that the Phils and Yanks were interested at last year's trade deadline.  6 weeks till pitchers report for ST.  I don't think Givens is a good fit for us, because we'll use him more of a firestopper, than as a closer.  That's not a great way to build value, unless he absolutely crushes it.  He won't have too many easy innings.  

Just to add to this, I think trade value and signing value are two completely different things. I brought this up before, and got blasted for it, but I think Mazara is probably the closest we're going to get to a 2020 trade value comparison for Mancini. It's not exactly apples to apples, but it's in the ballpark. I also think we'd be wise to primarily play Mancini at 1B this season. If he's able to show that he can be a slightly above average fielder at 1B I think that will increase his value and his suitors. 

[sportsfan8703]

2 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Just to add to this, I think trade value and signing value are two completely different things. I brought this up before, and got blasted for it, but I think Mazara is probably the closest we're going to get to a 2020 trade value comparison for Mancini. It's not exactly apples to apples, but it's in the ballpark. I also think we'd be wise to primarily play Mancini at 1B this season. If he's able to show that he can be a slightly above average fielder at 1B I think that will increase his value and his suitors. 

At this point I think it is what it is with Mancini.  Teams are tight with their prospects nowadays, and they especially parting with them for a 1B/DH type, which let's face it, that is what a contender would view Mancini as.  Trey will be our All Star, our face of the franchise, until we compete, or he gets too expensive to lose with.