Would you offer Hays or Mountcastle a long term deal now?

[Frobby]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

So riddle me this:

if MC is competent in LF, what does this do to Stewart?

I seen very little of him, but I’ve seen has been a train wreck, but it’s way too early to give up on him, or maybe not, I don’t care either way but they have to do something with him, and what would that be?

 

3 hours ago, Philip said:

3 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

Even when I think about DJ Stewart panning out from here, I find it hard to get past an Orsulak vibe.  He will have a good deal more opportunity if Yusniel really has fallen off a cliff, though - in that case the envisioned Mancini, Mountcastle, Hays, Diaz 1B/OF group has a whole position open.

Joe Orsulak played almost 15 years in the bigs.    I’d say if Stewart has a Joe Orsulak career, he’s done all right.   

I don’t know what to make of him yet.    Clearly he’s not going to be a star player.    I continue to think Seth Smith would be a real good outcome for him.    I think his defense will prove better than the bad impression he’s made to date, mostly due to a couple of comical plays.   
 

 

[Just Regular]

2 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Hmm

One is on the 40 the other isn't.

One has spent an entire season at AAA and the other hasn't played past AA.

 

No water will be muddied.

While you are likely right, I think with a strong spring that Diaz is a sufficient talent for the 40-man issue not to hold him back.  I know that you know that the AAA entire season isn't required for good enough players.

I will be discouraged if Diaz is held in AAA beyond June if he is playing well, as around then the opportunity for 1000 PA's of MLB experience by Opening Day 2022 runs out.  Naturally no one not playing well will be promoted, but if Diaz is clearly better in February, March and April, I could see it.  Functionally Mountcastle is a rabbit for Diaz to chase until they are both regulars.  If we're generous to Santander, these two earning jobs would be the tipping point making more than half the everyday lineup relevant.

 

[wildcard]

Here is how I see the outfield:

I think Diaz spends the vast majority of 2020 at AAA and maybe he gets the Mountcastle treatment and in not called up until late April of 2021.    He is a top prospect for the O's.   He is still young and not on the 40 man roster.   The O's have plenty of other options for the outfield.

Santander and Hays will have to play themselves out of starting outfield spots to not be regulars in the O's outfield in 2020.

Mancini will be a regular playing some 1B and some corner outfield.    Mountcastle will be a regular after the first month of the season at 1B or corner outfield.  

Williams is probably the best fit for 4th outfielder because he can backup CF and play all three outfield postions.   But is in not of the 40 man roster so he will have earn a spot to  make it to the majors.  He is a candidate to fill a corner OF spot in March/April while Mountcastle begins the season in AAA.

Stewart probably begins the season at AAA, either optioned or rehabbing on the IL.  He has little to prove at AAA other than he is healthy.   It may take an injury by another player to get him to  the majors.

Mullins has to reestablish himself at AAA to begin the season.

Wilkerson can play all three outfield spots and several of the infield spots.   He could see some time in a corner OF spot in March/April until Mountcastle is promoted.  He may compete for the 4th OFer spot.   He is a platoon player vs right-handed pitching.  

Dwight Smith offers little more than a warm body that is restricted to LF.  One of his most attractive feature is he has an option remaining.  Mountcastle beginning in the minors and Stewart being injured to start the season offers him a slim chance to begin the season in the majors  but his position on the 40 man roster is vulnerable.

From what I have read Mountcastle is just as slow in the outfield as Mancini and less experienced as a corner OFer..   Mancini has the arm for RF.  Mountcastle does not.

 

[weams]

8 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

FWIW the Prospects Live guy was rather pessimistic - I'm just trying to balance my general perspective, which is that Yusniel is still very good, and last year was Senioritis.   I still am hoping for the Spring Training entertainment of Yusniel outplaying Mountcastle to muddy the water of who gets to debut first.

Mountcastle plays in the majors first. At corner outfield or first or DH. Diaz, fully healthy after tearing it up last spring, plays at least two thirds of the year at Norfolk. At a corner.  My opinion. 

[weams]

56 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Here is how I see the outfield:

I think Diaz spends the vast majority of 2020 at AAA and maybe he gets the Mountcastle treatment and in not called up until late April of 2021.    He is a top prospect for the O's.   He is still young and not on the 40 man roster.   The O's have plenty of other options for the outfield.

Santander and Hays will have to play themselves out of starting outfield spots to not be regulars in the O's outfield in 2020.

Mancini will be a regular playing some 1B and some corner outfield.    Mountcastle will be a regular after the first month of the season at 1B or corner outfield.  

Williams is probably the best fit for 4th outfielder because he can backup CF and play all three outfield postions.   But is in not of the 40 man roster so he will have earn a spot to  make it to the majors.  He is a candidate to fill a corner OF spot in March/April while Mountcastle begins the season in AAA.

Stewart probably begins the season at AAA, either optioned or rehabbing on the IL.  He has little to prove at AAA other than he is healthy.   It may take an injury by another player to get him to  the majors.

Mullins has to reestablish himself at AAA to begin the season.

Wilkerson can play all three outfield spots and several of the infield spots.   He could see some time in a corner OF spot in March/April until Mountcastle is promoted.  He may compete for the 4th OFer spot.   He is a platoon player vs right-handed pitching.  

Dwight Smith offers little more than a warm body that is restricted to LF.  One of his most attractive feature is he has an option remaining.  Mountcastle beginning in the minors and Stewart being injured to start the season offers him a slim chance to begin the season in the majors  but his position on the 40 man roster is vulnerable.

From what I have read Mountcastle is just as slow in the outfield as Mancini and less experienced as a corner OFer..   Mancini has the arm for RF.  Mountcastle does not.

 

You would not delay Diaz for the same reason that Mountcastle is delayed. You just would not. 

[wildcard]

1 hour ago, weams said:

You would not delay Diaz for the same reason that Mountcastle is delayed. You just would not. 

Sounds like you would not.   I would.

There is no reason to promote Diaz as long as the pitching is poor.   Until enough of the AA and AAA pitching is promoted, the team will likely lose.   I don't expect to see Baumann, Lowther, Kremer, Zimmerman or Wells until late in the 2020 season.    At that point the determining factor on Diaz will be does Elias want to keep him for 6 years or 7 years.    That is why he may be delayed until April of 2021.

Mountcastle was International League Player of the Year and did not get a call up last Sept.    I don't know why Diaz would not be treated the same way.

[Frobby]

9 hours ago, RZNJ said:

Montcastle is more athletic than Mancini?  Everyone assumes this but what does it mean? Does he run faster? Throw better?  Get better jumps?  Go back on the ball better?  Mountcastle may or may not turn out to be a better outfielder than Mancini.  It's far from a slam dunk.  It's curious that the former SS, in name only,  isn't seen as a future plus fielding 1B.  If he's really so athletic,  1B should have been a breeze.  Just remember,  Reimold was faster and had a stronger arm than either one of these guys.  Some might call Reimold athletic.

Fair enough.     I’m only stating what I think is probable, not what I think is certain.    The only way to find out is to give Mountcastle more reps and evaluate his progress.     I’ve never laid eyes on the guy other than a few highlights, so I certainly don’t have any definitive opinions on the subject.   

[HowAboutThat]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

Here is how I see the outfield:

I think Diaz spends the vast majority of 2020 at AAA and maybe he gets the Mountcastle treatment and in not called up until late April of 2021.    He is a top prospect for the O's.   He is still young and not on the 40 man roster.   The O's have plenty of other options for the outfield.

Santander and Hays will have to play themselves out of starting outfield spots to not be regulars in the O's outfield in 2020.

Mancini will be a regular playing some 1B and some corner outfield.    Mountcastle will be a regular after the first month of the season at 1B or corner outfield.  

Williams is probably the best fit for 4th outfielder because he can backup CF and play all three outfield postions.   But is in not of the 40 man roster so he will have earn a spot to  make it to the majors.  He is a candidate to fill a corner OF spot in March/April while Mountcastle begins the season in AAA.

Stewart probably begins the season at AAA, either optioned or rehabbing on the IL.  He has little to prove at AAA other than he is healthy.   It may take an injury by another player to get him to  the majors.

Mullins has to reestablish himself at AAA to begin the season.

Wilkerson can play all three outfield spots and several of the infield spots.   He could see some time in a corner OF spot in March/April until Mountcastle is promoted.  He may compete for the 4th OFer spot.   He is a platoon player vs right-handed pitching.  

Dwight Smith offers little more than a warm body that is restricted to LF.  One of his most attractive feature is he has an option remaining.  Mountcastle beginning in the minors and Stewart being injured to start the season offers him a slim chance to begin the season in the majors  but his position on the 40 man roster is vulnerable.

From what I have read Mountcastle is just as slow in the outfield as Mancini and less experienced as a corner OFer..   Mancini has the arm for RF.  Mountcastle does not.

 

 I don’t know anything about the guys in the high minors, but we have 6 guys who played OF last year( Mancini, Smith, Stewart, Wilkerson, Hays, Santander) plus Mountcastle...and more( Williams, Mullins, etc)

Something’s got to give, and of that group I would be most comfortable giving Smith and Stewart the heave-ho. Wilk offers competent D everywhere, including in the infield, so I’m happy keeping him.

none of the fringe guys has any trade value but might be worthwhile as a throw-in on a trade.

 

[DirtyBird]

6 hours ago, wildcard said:

Here is how I see the outfield:

I think Diaz spends the vast majority of 2020 at AAA and maybe he gets the Mountcastle treatment and in not called up until late April of 2021.    He is a top prospect for the O's.   He is still young and not on the 40 man roster.   The O's have plenty of other options for the outfield.

 

Diaz turns 24 in 2020. Do you really make service time moves on a 24 year old "prospect"?

[Just Regular]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's have plenty of other options for the outfield.

I'm not sure I agree with this.  I think there is a fairly sizable gap between Santander/Mancini/Hays/Mountcastle/Diaz and all the other options at hand for the five easy lineup positions.

If the club hasn't given up on 2022, Mountcastle (very likely to get it early this year) and Diaz (not as much) ought to have as much time as possible to acclimate.  They'll need some time to grow from Losing MLB Player to Winning MLB Player, more so in my mind than Captain America, or even Rodriguez/Hall.  I don't think in the time of the Bryant Grievance there's going to be a lot of April 11th, but before the end of May, there's a decent sample especially if they are Spring Training regulars.  I'm certainly rooting for March lineup cards to be mostly pre-printed with Mountcastle and Diaz in the top half.

I think you can play games hiding pitchers away from The Show a bit more than hitters - they have more control of their craft.  Hitters need to see that which is crafted, especially if their profile is more Solid Regular (how I see these two) than star.  Diaz has to play well to put the Front Office to the test, but if he can how they handle him by June will give a clue I think on whether they see the Rutschman Window opening as soon as '22.  Mountcastle's AAA MVP was a byproduct of orchestrating for a future window - I don't think Diaz 2020 has to have the same constraint.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

Diaz turns 24 in 2020. Do you really make service time moves on a 24 year old "prospect"?

Let’s be real clear about this.    Diaz will be 23 years old every single day of the 2020 regular season; he does not turn 24 until October.    The future season that presumably would be affected by the timing of his debut would be his age 30 season; if he debuts sometime towards the end of this year or next Opening Day, he’ll be a free agent for his age 30 season (assuming he’s up in the majors continuously after his debut), whereas if he debuts after mid-April 2021 he’ll be under team control during his age 30 season.  

Personally, I think a player’s age 30 season is a pretty valuable commodity.    It’s a little past peak, but generally, still an age when most good players are still very productive.    So, I wouldn’t dismiss the idea of considering service time issues when planning the timing of Diaz’s debut.    

Needless to say, the new CBA could change all that.    But who knows?

 

[DirtyBird]

10 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Let’s be real clear about this.    Diaz will be 23 years old every single day of the 2020 regular season; he does not turn 24 until October.    The future season that presumably would be affected by the timing of his debut would be his age 30 season; if he debuts sometime towards the end of this year or next Opening Day, he’ll be a free agent for his age 30 season (assuming he’s up in the majors continuously after his debut), whereas if he debuts after mid-April 2021 he’ll be under team control during his age 30 season.  

Personally, I think a player’s age 30 season is a pretty valuable commodity.    It’s a little past peak, but generally, still an age when most good players are still very productive.    So, I wouldn’t dismiss the idea of considering service time issues when planning the timing of Diaz’s debut.    

Needless to say, the new CBA could change all that.    But who knows?

 

You will have a much better idea of how valuable his 30 year old season will be when he is about 27. Right now, we have no clue if we will want him in the organization as a 30 year old. He's a 23 year old with a 55 grade ceiling.

[Frobby]

38 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

You will have a much better idea of how valuable his 30 year old season will be when he is about 27. Right now, we have no clue if we will want him in the organization as a 30 year old. He's a 23 year old with a 55 grade ceiling.

Can’t disagree with you here.   I guess the question is, if you don’t really know, why take the risk of losing something valuable?     What’s the upside to starting him earlier?     I’d say very little.   

Anyway, we’ll see how Diaz performs at AAA and whether he makes a strong case for promotion.    Hopefully he does and we can renew this discussion.   
 

[weams]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

Diaz turns 24 in 2020. Do you really make service time moves on a 24 year old "prospect"?

No one does. 

[weams]

14 hours ago, RZNJ said:

.  Just remember,  Reimold was faster and had a stronger arm than either one of these guys.  Some might call Reimold athletic.

Then he broke his neck twice.