The dichotomy in my head

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

The dichotomy in my head would be a good album title. 

[HowAboutThat]

22 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

How so? Collecting high draft selections is part of “the plan”. If you add quality players you spend money and the team may outperform and thus hinder the plan. 
 

No where in the plan is a deadline deal of desperation where they pick up a middling player in exchange for a prospect.

I hate watching the Orioles lose ....But it’s part of the plan.

You didn’t read what I wrote. It is foolish to sign expensive free agents, or trade prospects for guys who can help us win a few extra games, But I am not advocating that. I am firmly in favor of giving guys a chance to show what they can do, and sending them on the way if they can’t(That means, by the way, that several of the guys on the 40 man should not be anywhere near an oriole uniform in April.)

But I don’t want to keep guys in the minors because they might come up and play well… Bring them up, if they play well, we will win more games. Yay. But even if they play very well, we won’t win enough games to be competitive because we don’t yet have enough guys who can play very well to make a significant difference. Therefore calling them up won’t damage the plan.  And, regarding service time, if we call them up and they play well enough, we can trade them for guys to place in the beginning of the process, thus increasing the foundation of future players.

 

[DirtyBird]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

1.   I don’t care how many games we end up winning in 2020.    To some extent, if we are going to be bad, the fewer wins we have, the better.   

2.   But I want to win every game we play.     

That’s all.

 

Our 2021 draft position isn’t going to dictate the future of the organization.

[Beef Supreme]

13 hours ago, Philip said:

I am firmly in favor of giving guys a chance to show what they can do, and sending them on the way if they can’t. 

I think you and I are in agreement, except to add: send them on their way if they can ... to another team in trade in order to to keep building the talent pool until they are ready to challenge. I think that the current talent pool is not very deep. And I think the Orioles may be farther away than three or four years form being serious playoff competitors.

[tntoriole]

10 hours ago, Philip said:

That is true, but incomplete, you can accept conflicting opinions, but you cannot agree with each of them. Tolerance and understanding are not the same as agreement. That

Two dissonant beliefs can  be held if our mind sees them as part of a larger belief system that incorporates both ideas within it.  

Cognitive dissonance is the technical term for the psychological discomfort felt when we realize we are holding two inconsistent beliefs. 

Doublethink was the term George Orwell created in his novel, 1984, which showed the problems created in a world where contradictory beliefs are insisted upon as both being equally and simultaneously true.  Hmmm, seems there are examples of that going on all around us. 

 

[weams]

9 hours ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

That was the genre I was thinking of too. 

 

9 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

Prog rock!.

[Es4M11]

9 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Our 2021 draft position isn’t going to dictate the future of the organization.

It certainly could. It remains to be seen if that will be the case, but it's disingenuous to suggest it couldn't possibly.

[Es4M11]

15 hours ago, Frobby said:

1.   I don’t care how many games we end up winning in 2020.    To some extent, if we are going to be bad, the fewer wins we have, the better.   

2.   But I want to win every game we play.     

That’s all.

 

Of course on a game to game basis as a fan one would always presumably root for their team to do well. I'm not going to be too upset when the team lets one get away though. IMO, still have to maintain the proper perspective -- sacrifice at the major league level for another year while the team is hopefully building sturdy foundations for what is to come. I like the overall progress and I'm a believer.

[Frobby]

17 minutes ago, Es4M11 said:

It certainly could. It remains to be seen if that will be the case, but it's disingenuous to suggest it couldn't possibly.

I’d hesitate to say that one draft ever dictates the future of an organization.    Look at the Astros -  the no. 1 pick didn’t work out for them in 2013 or 2014, yet they built a fantastic team anyway.    Meanwhile the Angels had an amazing draft in 2009, headlined by stealing Mike Trout with the no. 25 pick but also several other scores, and yet it’s led nowhere.   

But sure, I’d rather pick higher than lower, when it comes to trying to acquire future talent for my team.  
 

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, tntoriole said:

Doublethink was the term George Orwell created in his novel, 1984, which showed the problems created in a world where contradictory beliefs are insisted upon as both being equally and simultaneously true.

Yes exactly and that’s exactly what I said. You cannot equally believe two contradictory things. One can’t believe that 2+2 is four and 2+2 is five. That’s not a very good example, because the accuracy of either of those claims can be conclusively proven.

I am reluctant to venture into religion, but one cannot simultaneously believe in the divinity of Jesus and reject the divinity of Jesus. You can certainly accept both as valid choices: That is the very definition of tolerance. But you cannot believe that each is true. Frobby’s post is essentially about wanting to win while not wanting to interrupt the plan. I do not think those are contradictory desires, and I strongly believe that those who believe that we must lose in order to win are incorrect.

Specifically, however, he said “ I don’t care how many games we win” and he also said “I want to win every game” and those are logically contradictory. He CAN’T equally desire each thing even if he thinks he does. But he CAN desire one more than the other, and that is entirely normal.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Es4M11 said:

It certainly could. It remains to be seen if that will be the case, but it's disingenuous to suggest it couldn't possibly.

Possible but highly unlikely. You’re suggesting that one pick perhaps 4-5 places away from another could make that difference. A lot depends on the depth of the draft and the wisdom-and number- of our choices, and I have no idea how that draft is shaping up, but it is highly unlikely that picking 2nd vs 5th vs 9th is going to make a significant difference.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, Philip said:

Possible but highly unlikely. You’re suggesting that one pick perhaps 4-5 places away from another could make that difference. A lot depends on the depth of the draft and the wisdom-and number- of our choices, and I have no idea how that draft is shaping up, but it is highly unlikely that picking 2nd vs 5th vs 9th is going to make a significant difference.

I expect we will be picking top 3 in   2021.  Maybe no. 1.    I think having a really early top pick is advantageous, and picking at the top of every subsequent round also is advantageous.   Obviously, there are guys who will over- or under-perform their draft slot almost regardless of where you pick.    

[weams]

41 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes exactly and that’s exactly what I said. You cannot equally believe two contradictory things. One can’t believe that 2+2 is four and 2+2 is five. That’s not a very good example, because the accuracy of either of those claims can be conclusively proven.

I am reluctant to venture into religion, but one cannot simultaneously believe in the divinity of Jesus and reject the divinity of Jesus. You can certainly accept both as valid choices: That is the very definition of tolerance. But you cannot believe that each is true. Frobby’s post is essentially about wanting to win while not wanting to interrupt the plan. I do not think those are contradictory desires, and I strongly believe that those who believe that we must lose in order to win are incorrect.

Specifically, however, he said “ I don’t care how many games we win” and he also said “I want to win every game” and those are logically contradictory. He CAN’T equally desire each thing even if he thinks he does. But he CAN desire one more than the other, and that is entirely normal.

I want to win all the games

 

I expect to lose most of them.

[tntoriole]

53 minutes ago, Philip said:

Yes exactly and that’s exactly what I said. You cannot equally believe two contradictory things. One can’t believe that 2+2 is four and 2+2 is five. That’s not a very good example, because the accuracy of either of those claims can be conclusively proven.

I am reluctant to venture into religion, but one cannot simultaneously believe in the divinity of Jesus and reject the divinity of Jesus. You can certainly accept both as valid choices: That is the very definition of tolerance. But you cannot believe that each is true. Frobby’s post is essentially about wanting to win while not wanting to interrupt the plan. I do not think those are contradictory desires, and I strongly believe that those who believe that we must lose in order to win are incorrect.

Specifically, however, he said “ I don’t care how many games we win” and he also said “I want to win every game” and those are logically contradictory. He CAN’T equally desire each thing even if he thinks he does. But he CAN desire one more than the other, and that is entirely normal.

It may be adding the word “equally” to “believe” is confusing.  I would suggest that the psychological construct  “belief” is more complex.   I will venture a bit only to use your example...Jesus in the Garden of Gethsemane, even knowing full and completely as God what was going to happen to Him, still expressed a question to the Father as to whether the cup could be removed from Him.   

As we homo sapiens creatures “learn” something, there is an  incomprehensible neurochemical tangle going on in the cerebral cortex-from registration of a thought, to a recent memory, to retaining and retrieving this thought, to a comparision process of new experience versus older data, to modification of the previously held assumption, etc.   Gradually, those initial ideas that have been run through this neurochemical process countless times become what we experience psychologically as more unchanging and then call a “belief”- and a “belief” is much more psychologically resistant to change than a thought or an idea. 

As a result of our excessively cortex weighted brain structure, technically, we don’t exactly “equally” believe anything because all of our thoughts are previously dated neurochemical unique events which are then modified by our collective memories and again modified by our learning processes at different times throughout our conscious existence as a human being. 

So, while we cannot “equally” believe any beliefs,  we can certainly hold and believe two ideas simultaneously at similar or dissimilar level of  intensity.  It does create dissonance cognitively with associated emotional feelings, like anxiety or depression,  but it does occur as part of our brain/mind process throughout our lives. 

Man, this is a long offseason....waiting on some baseball.   Have a great New Year, everybody!   

[HowAboutThat]

35 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I expect we will be picking top 3 in   2021.  Maybe no. 1.    I think having a really early top pick is advantageous, and picking at the top of every subsequent round also is advantageous.   Obviously, there are guys who will over- or under-perform their draft slot almost regardless of where you pick.    

We are picking second this July, I would be very surprised-and disappointed-if we pick in the top five in 2021, but regardless, unless it is a very thin draft, the difference between one and five, or between three and eight, while meaningful, is probably not going to change our trajectory.

Also, bear in mind that drafting is not the only way to replenish the system, it’s not necessarily even the best way. Because we have avoided so many options that are used in abundance by other teams, we focus on the draft, but making trades like the Bundy trade  go along way towards bringing in meaningful prospects. None of the guys we got for Bundy is a sure thing, but all of them have cleared at least a few developmental hurdles, that means that we have gotten them after somebody else has devoted time and effort to their development. I don’t think there’s any doubt that we would rather have those players than the draft pick and position that they originally represented. By trading our surplus pelf for well chosen young prospects we can mitigate any negative from drafting 9 instead of 3.