Three O's in BA Top 100

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Ruzious said:

4?  I'd expect 6 in the top 100.  

Maybe eventually.    I’m less focused on the top 100 and more focused on producing a steady stream of competent major league players.    Neither Trey Mancini nor John Means ever sniffed a top 100 list.

[hoosiers]

On ‎1‎/‎23‎/‎2020 at 8:33 AM, Ruzious said:

3 in the top 50 is good, but 3 in the top 100 for an organization who's MLB team is being historically bad year after year - indicates they're not where they really need to be - and we'll need to see that number go up next year - not that BA is the ultimate source but it at least gives us an idea of where we are vs the rest of the universe.      

It will be interesting to see where our overall system ranks over the next few years.  The system is getting significantly deeper, but also has a lot of guys (a good number acquired in trade the last two years) who should graduate - Hays, Mountcastle, Lowther, Akin, perhaps Diaz, others).  Our system ranking will still take a big step forward as the depth in our system continues to improve and our international spend starts to move its way into and through our system.  Overall depth is more important than our top 100 total, IMO.  Not a big deal to me if Mountcastle is in or just out of the top 100.  Not much difference between 80-120 IMO anyway.

I would say a top three to five farm system, besides the depth, would have five to seven guys in the top 100.  Not sure when we would get to that point if AR graduates in 2021 and the two pitchers soon after that.  We would need a non-first rounder to emerge.

[hoosiers]

On ‎1‎/‎22‎/‎2020 at 3:21 PM, OrioleDog said:

Just holding serve the Big Three's 5/35/47 might grow into something like 3/15/30 (1/10/20 a dream scenario) with 2020's pick 1-2 perhaps 50ish.  Baumann, Kremer and Diaz swing guys for back half of next year's lists if they get the Mountcastle Treatment.  That'll likely be the highwater mark of the Orioles Farm in the rebuild before Rutschman presumably graduates the list sometime in 2021.  The Big Two pitchers too by then, though that could be in a good way or a bad way.

An organic breakout and a good Mancini trade might give a shot at nine Top 100 O's next year.

Maybe speculating on our high water mark could be its own thread.  Even if AR graduates in 2021, I think there is a good chance our system is better entering 2022 as long as neither GRod nor Hall graduate in 2021 as well.  We will likely add two top 3 picks to our system and should have two competitive international (2020 and 2021) draft classes signed with some $M headliners in each worthy of placing in our our top 10.

Besides other teams will have players graduating to the majors - like us, but we will have had three straight years (2019-2021) drafting with top 3 draft budgets and top three or so in international spend entering 2022.

[Frobby]

44 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

It will be interesting to see where our overall system ranks over the next few years.  The system is getting significantly deeper, but also has a lot of guys (a good number acquired in trade the last two years) who should graduate - Hays, Mountcastle, Lowther, Akin, perhaps Diaz, others).  Our system ranking will still take a big step forward as the depth in our system continues to improve and our international spend starts to move its way into and through our system.  Overall depth is more important than our top 100 total, IMO.  Not a big deal to me if Mountcastle is in or just out of the top 100.  Not much difference between 80-120 IMO anyway.

I would say a top three to five farm system, besides the depth, would have five to seven guys in the top 100.  Not sure when we would get to that point if AR graduates in 2021 and the two pitchers soon after that.  We would need a non-first rounder to emerge.

We know from recent interviews that our first real shot at a top international class won’t arrive until 2021.   Even assuming we achieve that, those players aren’t percolating up above Aberdeen until probably 2023-24.    So really, until then, we’re playing with 2/3 - 3/4 of a deck, since 25-30% of players come from Latin America.    It’s really tough to have a truly topnotch farm system until that pipeline is filled.

[Just Regular]

1 hour ago, hoosiers said:

Maybe speculating on our high water mark could be its own thread.  Even if AR graduates in 2021, I think there is a good chance our system is better entering 2022 as long as neither GRod nor Hall graduate in 2021 as well.

I think something will be wrong if GRod and Hall don't graduate with Rutschman in 2021.  If they are as good as we hope they are, they are at a level where AAA is often not really a thing...

Chris Paddack - 0 AAA innings

Mike Soroka and Walker Buehler - 36 AAA innings

Shane Bieber and Jesus Luzardo - 47-48 AAA innings

Among excellent young pitchers, Blake Snell had 150 AAA innings (the last 45 after he'd already pitched credibly in MLB).  Clevinger was a late bloomer without the uber-pedigree.  2017 Lucas Giolito is one example of a mega talent getting a full AAA year, though he was already a TJ guy.

High water marks are just winter time passers, but Captain America plus 2 high school arms coming along well from the preceding two drafts is potentially a rare crescendo.

I suppose if Elias was truly ruthless, we could try to make the 2021 Tides one of the greatest minor league teams in history, but I hope we'll try and entice the Lindor Cohort a little more than that before next offseason.

[Tony-OH]

On 1/22/2020 at 12:19 PM, Frobby said:

I’m a little surprised Mountcastle fell off the list after having a very solid year at Norfolk.    I’m not concerned about it, however.   He is what he is and we’ll see him in Baltimore soon enough.    

BA hasn't been on the edge of prospect analysis for a long time now. I wouldn't be concerned with Mountcastle or Hays not being on the list. 

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Is there any site or publication out there who you think is a better source?

To me, all the various lists are interesting, and I’d rather have players on these lists than not.    But the bust rate on the BA list is pretty high, and on the other hand there are lots of successful players who never were on any of the lists.    I couldn’t say if BA is better or worse than BP,  Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline or other sites.    Here’s a good article on the success rates of BA top 100 prospects:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.royalsreview.com/platform/amp/2018/3/22/16749948/updating-the-success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

[hoosiers]

 I think leaving Mountcastle off the top 100 list because of a lack of defensive home and a lack of plate discipline reflects a change in prospect evaluation for BA for the better.  Mountcastle would definitely have made the BA Top 100 ten years ago, IMO.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, hoosiers said:

 I think leaving Mountcastle off the top 100 list because of a lack of defensive home and a lack of plate discipline reflects a change in prospect evaluation for BA for the better.  Mountcastle would definitely have made the BA Top 100 ten years ago, IMO.

He made the list last year.

[Mendoza Line]

5 hours ago, Frobby said:

To me, all the various lists are interesting, and I’d rather have players on these lists than not.    But the bust rate on the BA list is pretty high, and on the other hand there are lots of successful players who never were on any of the lists.    I couldn’t say if BA is better or worse than BP,  Fangraphs, MLB Pipeline or other sites.    Here’s a good article on the success rates of BA top 100 prospects:  https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.royalsreview.com/platform/amp/2018/3/22/16749948/updating-the-success-and-failure-rates-of-top-mlb-prospects

Nice article. I was most interested in the organizational rankings by prospect WAR the author did. It passed the eye test with the Astros and Rays being some of the top. However I found it fascinating how several of the recent world series winners (or highly competitive teams) were so low on the prospect success rate. The Red Soxs, Giants, and Cubs have all had a lower prospect success rate than our much maligned farm, but have managed to churn out several, and near, WS winners.

Not that this is of any comfort to we struggling O's fans, but I think this data suggests there is much more to a championship caliber organization than just having a top farm system.

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 1/23/2020 at 8:33 AM, Ruzious said:

3 in the top 50 is good, but 3 in the top 100 for an organization who's MLB team is being historically bad year after year - indicates they're not where they really need to be - and we'll need to see that number go up next year - not that BA is the ultimate source but it at least gives us an idea of where we are vs the rest of the universe.      

The team hasn’t really been historically bad year over year since last decade. They’ve had one draft where they picked 1-1. If I’m not mistaken, they hadn't picked in the top 5 since 2012 draft (following 2011 season). 
 

also, keep in mind that bottoming out in 2018 was in part a symptom of a lack of international investment and solid drafting and developing. These things take a while to reverse themselves and manifest in stronger farm system rankings. 

[MurphDogg]

34 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

The team hasn’t really been historically bad year over year since last decade. They’ve had one draft where they picked 1-1. If I’m not mistaken, they hadn't picked in the top 5 since 2012 draft (following 2011 season). 
 

also, keep in mind that bottoming out in 2018 was in part a symptom of a lack of international investment and solid drafting and developing. These things take a while to reverse themselves and manifest in stronger farm system rankings. 

Yep, their first pick was in the 20s every year from 2013-17 and was 11 (Grayson Rodriguez) in 2018 (with no first rounder in 2014). Those first round picks produced Hunter Harvey, DJ Stewart, Mountcastle and DL Hall. Cody Sedlock in 2016 was the only bust, but he could still turn things around and produce a little bit.

They have had a pretty good hit rate on first rounders, but the lack of international players is what has killed them, not having produced a regular besides Jonathan Schoop since Sidney Ponson.

[Frobby]

* This one comes from MASN’s Tom Davis, who loves to crunch numbers and mine for oddities.

The Orioles had three prospects ranked in Baseball America’s Top 100 - Adley Rutschman at No. 5, Grayson Rodriguezat No. 35 and DL Hall at No. 47.

The Baltimore Colts won Super Bowl 5, and the Ravens won Super Bowls 35 and 47.

Coincidence? Well, of course. But props to Tom for noticing.

 https://www.masnsports.com/school-of-roch/2020/01/could-cobb-consume-leftover-innings.html

[ChrisP]

On ‎1‎/‎24‎/‎2020 at 1:33 PM, RZNJ said:

Is there any site or publication out there who you think is a better source?

I have a pretty good idea who he'd recommend for strictly Oriole prospects. 

[TheOtherRipken]

2 hours ago, Eric-OH said:

I think in terms of the O’s vs the universe the gap has been closing for a bit now, and that’s before short or long term success in the international market.  The rise in rankings last year as a consensus is a big indicator for me.  As are the standings and game performance in the GCL in 2019.

We know and recognize the talent that exists from Bowie up and those are the ranked guys but in terms of the lower or lowest minors they are on par with other organizations and really have nowhere to go but up.  In 2020 we’ll get to see indicators of the front office’s faith in some of these guys.  That seems very exciting, maybe if several excel the system’s ranking system could rise even further.  Mix in a talented draft in June and the sky is the limit.  Also would give us a great threshold to measure the direction and success of the rebuild.

 

https://www.mlb.com/news/most-improved-farm-systems-in-baseball

I like both your optimism and the content of your posts, really happy to have you here.  I have read your GCL posts so I know you like a few different guys, but who really stands out at the low minors as prospects with a really solid chance of being major league contributors?