Runs allowed: every time you think it can’t get worse...

[Frobby]

The Orioles have allowed more runs than the year before each year for the last five years:

2014 - 593 (3rd fewest in the AL, 77 runs below league average)

2015 - 693 (7th, -2)

2016 - 715 (9th, -9)

2017 - 841 (14th, +85)

2018 - 892 (15th, +154)

2019 - 981 (15th, +180)

Want to see the Orioles win more games?   Reverse that trend.    It all starts there.    

What are the odds that we see a reversal starting in 2020?     With Bundy gone and Cashner not here for a half-season like he was last year, could our pitching actually be worse than the mind-bogglingly bad staff of 2019?

I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is the year a course reversal begins.    First of all, we don’t know what they’re doing with the baseball, but my guess is that the league-wide trend will be fewer runs and fewer homers.    Second, I think the bullpen is almost bound to be better.    Several pitchers underperformed there last year and I think they’ll bounce back.    Third, I expect the defense to be better with Hays in CF on a regular basis, Iglesias at SS and Alberto manning 2B more often.    

Now as to the rotation, I don’t see any strong reason to think it will be better in 2020.    We’re hoping against hope that Means is able to repeat, that Cobb is healthy and pitches to his pre-Oriole form, that a couple of guys will the remaining collection of live bodies, and that some help will come from Akin and other prospects at some point.    But I can’t say I see a lot to count on there.   

 

[DrungoHazewood]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

I’m going to go out on a limb and say this is the year a course reversal begins.    First of all, we don’t know what they’re doing with the baseball, but my guess is that the league-wide trend will be fewer runs and fewer homers.  

That doesn't mean the Orioles will be better, it means that the context in which they allow fewer runs will make them look better.  Although you could argue that a less juiced baseball's interactions with a homer-friendly park could be non-linear, and that the Orioles' gains could be greater than an average team's.

[Frobby]

5 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

That doesn't mean the Orioles will be better, it means that the context in which they allow fewer runs will make them look better.  Although you could argue that a less juiced baseball's interactions with a homer-friendly park could be non-linear, and that the Orioles' gains could be greater than an average team's.

You are right about that, and that’s why in the 2014-19 breakdown I posted information about how far the team was from the league average, in addition to showing the total runs allowed.    I’m about 75% confident that we will allow fewer runs, but only about 60% confident that our runs allowed differential against the league average will go down.   

[Moose Milligan]

Ugh, man...those are some ugly numbers.

I think we'll be on par with last years team.  Too many question marks in the rotation to make me think they'll be improved by a degree that's worth mentioning.  I agree that the defense should be improved but if they still can't keep the ball in the yard it doesn't matter.  Even if they still somehow give up 50 less homers than last year they still gave up a ton of homers.  

Would love to be wrong.

[Frobby]

Here’s a further breakdown of starters vs. bullpen each year:

2014

SP 3.61 ERA in 953.2 IP (3.61 ERA league ave.)

RP 3.10 ERA in 507.2 IP (3.63)

2015

SP 4.53 ERA in 915.2 IP (4.14)

RP 3.21 ERA in 519.0 IP (3.76)

2016 

SP 4.72 ERA in 886.0 IP (4.42)

RP 3.40 ERA in 546.0 IP (3.84)

2017

SP 5.70 ERA in 846.0 IP (4.54)

RP 3.93 ERA in 595.0 IP (4.11)

2018

SP 5.49 ERA in 837.2 IP (4.39)

RP 4.76 ERA in 593.1 IP (4.09)

2019

SP 5.57 ERA in 789.0 IP (4.76)

RP 5.79 ERA in 654.0 IP (4.44)

Some obvious observations: the starting pitching got significantly worse for three years running in 2015-17, while the bullpen managed to hold pretty steady despite an ever-increasing workload.   The last two years, the starters have held pretty steady though dropping in innings each year, but the bullpen has imploded, going from 3.93 to 4.76 to 5.79 ERA in that span.   The innings workload has shifted more to the bullpen every single year.    Of course, that is true league-wide, especially with the advent of the “opener” strategy the last couple of years.    The average innings thrown by starters has dropped from 960 in 2014 (953.2 for the Orioles) to 808 today (789.0).    

As I said in the OP, I expect our bullpen to do better this year.    Last year was really a travesty in that regard.    
 

 

[HowAboutThat]

I am assuming that those runs were total runs and not earned runs. Giving up runs isn’t just pitching, It’s errors, and really bad fundamental baseball. Last year the team defense was awful. I was so disappointed. More than that, the fundamentals were terrible. I was at a game between Baltimore and Texas where Severino just threw the ball to second base with nobody there, but stuff like that happened constantly. Sisco has no idea how to tag people. Outfielders were ignoring the cut off men, etc etc.

It is unlike the pitching will be as bad as it was( no more Mike Wright, yay) And the first wave of the cavalry should make a considerable difference. But with three genuine outfielders, I think the defense should be markedly better. 

 

[Frobby]

1 hour ago, Philip said:

I am assuming that those runs were total runs and not earned runs. Giving up runs isn’t just pitching, It’s errors, and really bad fundamental baseball. Last year the team defense was awful. I was so disappointed. More than that, the fundamentals were terrible. I was at a game between Baltimore and Texas where Severino just threw the ball to second base with nobody there, but stuff like that happened constantly. Sisco has no idea how to tag people. Outfielders were ignoring the cut off men, etc etc.

It is unlike the pitching will be as bad as it was( no more Mike Wright, yay) And the first wave of the cavalry should make a considerable difference. But with three genuine outfielders, I think the defense should be markedly better. 

 

Earned/Unearned

557/36

646/47

671/44

795/46

824/68

897/84

Obviously the defense has deteriorated, but it’s not the main cause of the increase in runs allowed.    305 homers allowed doesn’t give the defense any chance to prevent a lot of these runs.