Which pitchers have a chance in camp and who is there for the experience

[HowAboutThat]

11 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

BTW, I'm going to do an entire evaluation of the pitchers in camp and their chances for spots on the OD lineup this weekend. I'm looking to use statcast info where available similiar to how I did the hitters.

Tony,  I hope you’ll be able to find somebody else here with whom you can collaborate. It looks like quite an undertaking. 

I have a question. How important is it to Mike to keep both rule five pitchers? It’s basically a free prospect, so it seems to me that even if they don’t do all that well, if he feels that the guy has future potential he keeps him anyway, right? Even over somebody who might be better prepared to help now?

 

edit: On the other hand, we never saw Araujo again after we sent him down...

Edited February 7, 2020 by Philip
Addendum

[Beef Supreme]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

Tony,  I hope you’ll be able to find somebody else here with whom you can collaborate. It looks like quite an undertaking. 

I have a question. How important is it to Mike to keep both rule five pitchers? It’s basically a free prospect, so it seems to me that even if they don’t do all that well, if he feels that the guy has future potential he keeps him anyway, right? Even over somebody who might be better prepared to help now?

 

edit: On the other hand, we never saw Araujo again after we sent him down...

Well, Araujo was never Elias' guy...

I would put the odds on Bailey coming north as high. I wouldn't be surprised if Rucker breaks camp, too. The "process" of valuing talent via Bauer Units (Bailey) or whatever Rucker statistically demonstrates makes me think they are pretty much already sold on the potential of their picks. That might mean the players get a longer rope, even if their ST performance is mediocre. If either one fails miserably -- or, more likely, doesn't provide comparable metrics as to what was attractive about them to begin with -- then I could see one or both being returned before Opening Day.

[Gatoriole]

3 hours ago, Philip said:

Tony,  I hope you’ll be able to find somebody else here with whom you can collaborate. It looks like quite an undertaking. 

I have a question. How important is it to Mike to keep both rule five pitchers? It’s basically a free prospect, so it seems to me that even if they don’t do all that well, if he feels that the guy has future potential he keeps him anyway, right? Even over somebody who might be better prepared to help now?

 

edit: On the other hand, we never saw Araujo again after we sent him down...

We're still learning Elias, but it did not take long for him to jettison Drew Jackson last year (though he did head north with the team). On a team that is expected to be as bad as our team is expected to be, I can understand trying to keep two Rule 5 players. I'm not sure I'd bet on it though.

[Tony-OH]

11 hours ago, Philip said:

Tony,  I hope you’ll be able to find somebody else here with whom you can collaborate. It looks like quite an undertaking. 

I have a question. How important is it to Mike to keep both rule five pitchers? It’s basically a free prospect, so it seems to me that even if they don’t do all that well, if he feels that the guy has future potential he keeps him anyway, right? Even over somebody who might be better prepared to help now?

 

edit: On the other hand, we never saw Araujo again after we sent him down...

I do have people, all you guys! Seriously, this community continues to drive conversation and do outstanding work.

Last year Elias selected two Rule 5 picks and sent Drew Jackson back shortly after the season ended so I don't see any reason he will keep both. As with any rule 5 player, it will all depend on how they look in spring training. Both pitchers will have lots of Rapsodo data collected on them and will get opportunities to pitch often during spring training if the Orioles like what they see in the data. I think Bailey has the better shot of sticking, but spring will be the final test for both.

 

[Tony-OH]

8 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

Well, Araujo was never Elias' guy...

I would put the odds on Bailey coming north as high. I wouldn't be surprised if Rucker breaks camp, too. The "process" of valuing talent via Bauer Units (Bailey) or whatever Rucker statistically demonstrates makes me think they are pretty much already sold on the potential of their picks. That might mean the players get a longer rope, even if their ST performance is mediocre. If either one fails miserably -- or, more likely, doesn't provide comparable metrics as to what was attractive about them to begin with -- then I could see one or both being returned before Opening Day.

For everyone's sake, here's an article by Rapsoto that goes into this measurement more and how they are developing True spin. https://rapsodo.com/understanding-rapsodo-pitching-data-spin-rate-efficiency-profile-intro/

[Beef Supreme]

To be clear, I put quotation marks around the word process to differentiate what the Orioles appear to be doing -- using statistical methods and developing research using technological advances -- and what teams like the 76ers called "The Process," which seemed to be limited to tanking to acquire high draft picks.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Tony-OH said:

For everyone's sake, here's an article by Rapsoto that goes into this measurement more and how they are developing True spin. https://rapsodo.com/understanding-rapsodo-pitching-data-spin-rate-efficiency-profile-intro/

The article you shared was very clear in explaining the basics, but I’m unclear on one type of spin: bullet spin( yay bullet spin! muskets are dumb)and football spin are the same spin, aren’t they? A rotation at right angles to the horizontal movement?

meanwhile, how can the human hand/arm get a sideways spin AND a backwards or forward (top spin?)spin at the same time? It doesn’t seem physically possible.

[wildcard]

Entering ST MLB's Joe  Trezza says that Kohl Stewart is the favorite for the #4 spot in the O's rotation.  

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-face-roster-battle-in-starting-rotation

  I can't agree with that.   He looks more like a long reliever or bulk guy to me considering his MLB stats over the last two years.

Carrer stats:

Starter    1-2,  6.85 ERA, 6 S,   28.1 IP,  38 H,  14 SO,   1.855 WHIP

Reliever   3-1,  3.28 ERA,  11 G,  33.2 IP, 25 H, 20 SO,  1.099 WHIP

 

[sportsfan8703]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Entering ST MLB's Joe  Trezza says that Kohl Stewart is the favorite for the #4 spot in the O's rotation.  

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-face-roster-battle-in-starting-rotation

  I can't agree with that.   He looks more like a long reliever or bulk guy to me considering his MLB stats over the last two years.

Carrer stats:

Starter    1-2,  6.85 ERA, 6 S,   28.1 IP,  38 H,  14 SO,   1.855 WHIP

Reliever   3-1,  3.28 ERA,  11 G,  33.2 IP, 25 H, 20 SO,  1.099 WHIP

 

Stewart/Leblanc could combine for a rotation spot.  

[Tony-OH]

On 2/7/2020 at 2:04 PM, wildcard said:

Entering ST MLB's Joe  Trezza says that Kohl Stewart is the favorite for the #4 spot in the O's rotation.  

https://www.mlb.com/orioles/news/orioles-face-roster-battle-in-starting-rotation

  I can't agree with that.   He looks more like a long reliever or bulk guy to me considering his MLB stats over the last two years.

Carrer stats:

Starter    1-2,  6.85 ERA, 6 S,   28.1 IP,  38 H,  14 SO,   1.855 WHIP

Reliever   3-1,  3.28 ERA,  11 G,  33.2 IP, 25 H, 20 SO,  1.099 WHIP

 

Considering the competition in camp, I'd say Stewart is an early favorite for a rotation spot. Doesn't mean he's not probably best suited for a reliever spot, but unless Akin steps up and claims a spot and LeBlanc pitches well, I would not be surprised to see him start in the rotation. Barring injury, Stewart, LeBlanc, Akin and potentially Bailey are battling for the 4th and 5th spots.

[DirtyBird]

16 minutes ago, Tony-OH said:

Considering the competition in camp, I'd say Stewart is an early favorite for a rotation spot. Doesn't mean he's not probably best suited for a reliever spot, but unless Akin steps up and claims a spot and LeBlanc pitches well, I would not be surprised to see him start in the rotation. Barring injury, Stewart, LeBlanc, Akin and potentially Bailey are battling for the 4th and 5th spots.

What is better for the organization, Akin being thrown into the fire and getting banged around a bit as a regular starter, while going with a 5 man rotation in AAA (Kremer, Zimmerman, Wells, Lowther, Baumann)? Or holding Akin back, or yo-yo'ing him,  or having a 6 man rotation in AAA, or keeping Baumann behind at Bowie for the first part of the season?

[Frobby]

3 minutes ago, DirtyBird said:

What is better for the organization, Akin being thrown into the fire and getting banged around a bit as a regular starter, while going with a 5 man rotation in AAA (Kremer, Zimmerman, Wells, Lowther, Baumann)? Or holding Akin back, or yo-yo'ing him,  or having a 6 man rotation in AAA, or keeping Baumann behind at Bowie for the first part of the season?

I definitely don’t want to see Akin yo-yoed, and I’d be shocked if the O’s did that.   Once he’s up, he needs to be given 8-10 starts before any moves are even considered.    

[atomic]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I definitely don’t want to see Akin yo-yoed, and I’d be shocked if the O’s did that.   Once he’s up, he needs to be given 8-10 starts before any moves are even considered.    

What if he can't get through 2 innings ever?  

I think every pitcher in camp has a chance. If they aren't making the team out of camp they will be up before long.   Looking at the list of pitchers, most likely will be a revolving door with call-up/DFA/pass through waivers/Norfolk/Call up to Orioles sequence. 

[Tony-OH]

1 hour ago, DirtyBird said:

What is better for the organization, Akin being thrown into the fire and getting banged around a bit as a regular starter, while going with a 5 man rotation in AAA (Kremer, Zimmerman, Wells, Lowther, Baumann)? Or holding Akin back, or yo-yo'ing him,  or having a 6 man rotation in AAA, or keeping Baumann behind at Bowie for the first part of the season?

I think you bring Akin up when you think he is ready and then you ride him out for at least 10 starts regardless of success. If he's anywhere decent, then you ride him the rest of the way to see how he holds up as a starter. I like Akin, but if the Orioles were a contender, I'd move him to the pen where I think his stuff will play up and be potentially more consistent in shorter stints. 

Akin is the only prospects that has enough to AAA to be "ready" but Zimmerman could be a sleeper here, especially if he can improve that changeup more consistently. He has some John Means in him.

[scOtt]

1 hour ago, atomic said:

What if he can't get through 2 innings ever?  

I think every pitcher in camp has a chance. If they aren't making the team out of camp they will be up before long.   Looking at the list of pitchers, most likely will be a revolving door with call-up/DFA/pass through waivers/Norfolk/Call up to Orioles sequence. 

Yo-yoing or the Norfolk Shuttle will be a lot more difficult this year because players have to stay in the minors 15 days if sent down. I think this will have a much bigger impact on our club than the 3 batter rule.