Where do Kjerstad/Westburg fit on the 2023/24 team

[wildbillhiccup]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

At 9.5 rWAR, Mark Trumbo would be above the median for all no. 2 overall picks.    I wouldn’t be thrilled at all with that outcome, but it wouldn’t be terrible.    

Based on Elias’ comments, I think it’s likely that Kjerstad is a far better defensive OF than Trumbo.     
 

Well that's not really a very high bar. Trumbo was borderline unplayable in the field. 

[SteveA]

14 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

Well that's not really a very high bar. Trumbo was borderline unplayable in the field. 

Borderline?   I don't know about earlier in his career in LA and Arizona, but by the time he came here he was simply NOT a major league outfielder by any stretch of the imagination.

[Ruzious]

2 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

I didn't want to be accused of being lazy.  I like facts to tell the story.  I hope Kjerstad works out, but it's not ridiculous to suggest that he might end up with a hitting profile similar to Mark Trumbo's.  Those two things aren't mutually exclusive.  Mark Trumbo was a good hitter.  He just wasn't someone who worked out as a 30-year-old free agent signing.

That sounds good, but I haven't heard one good reason to compare Kjerstad to Trumbo.  

[PeteCanes]

Games evolve.  You want to watch 3 yards and a cloud of dust football?  I just want my team to be smart and figure out how to win.

[DrungoHazewood]

9 hours ago, Frobby said:

At 9.5 rWAR, Mark Trumbo would be above the median for all no. 2 overall picks.    I wouldn’t be thrilled at all with that outcome, but it wouldn’t be terrible.    

Based on Elias’ comments, I think it’s likely that Kjerstad is a far better defensive OF than Trumbo.     
 

For the first ~4 years of his pro career Trumbo was exclusively a first baseman.  When he got to AA, just before his debut he started playing some outfield.  Not sure why, maybe because the Angels had Kendrys Morales, Mike Napoli, and Hideki Matsui already at 1B/DH.  So it wouldn't take much to be better than Trumbo.  He was 2009's Trey Mancini.  Only an outfielder out of necessity.

[DrungoHazewood]

8 hours ago, Ruzious said:

That sounds good, but I haven't heard one good reason to compare Kjerstad to Trumbo.  

Trumbo's career is complete or nearly so.  Kjerstad, well, I'd never heard of him before Wednesday.  There are a lot of unknowns.  But based on what I've read the last few days the Venn diagram of Trumbo's career and Kjerstad's possibilities have significant overlap.

[Sanfran327]

20 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

We'll never be able to fix it if the going-in rules are that we can't really change anything of substance.

But I could (and have) laid out a way to get back to a game with more contact, more baserunning, and more action.  Limit teams to nine pitchers, deaden the ball, make the bats bigger, limit pickoff throws, make parks bigger.  Someone just has to have the will to do those things.  If base stealing doesn't merit the risk because of the analysis, change the game so it makes sense to run.  It's the rules of the game of baseball, not the Ten Commandments.

Agree. But it's hard to incentivize billionaires that are looking out for their multi-million dollar investments, etc. And some of these changes, while very interesting, sound like they'd require a change to the CBA, which is never easy. Not impossible, but not easy. And I have a hard time buying owners or the MLBPA signing off on much of this. Major League Baseball isn't for the fans, it's for the owners and players. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 6/11/2020 at 7:20 PM, DrungoHazewood said:

We'll never be able to fix it if the going-in rules are that we can't really change anything of substance.

But I could (and have) laid out a way to get back to a game with more contact, more baserunning, and more action.  Limit teams to nine pitchers, deaden the ball, make the bats bigger, limit pickoff throws, make parks bigger.  Someone just has to have the will to do those things.  If base stealing doesn't merit the risk because of the analysis, change the game so it makes sense to run.  It's the rules of the game of baseball, not the Ten Commandments.

The bolded are at cross purposes in a way. I don't think you can meaningfully limit pickoffs while still allowing base stealing. As the payoff from stealing increases, the attempt to stop it will rise (pickoffs). Limiting pickoff attempts would make stealing almost automatic to the detriment of the game. If you disagree, interested to hear how you think that would work.

 

[BohKnowsBmore]

13 hours ago, DrungoHazewood said:

Trumbo's career is complete or nearly so.  Kjerstad, well, I'd never heard of him before Wednesday.  There are a lot of unknowns.  But based on what I've read the last few days the Venn diagram of Trumbo's career and Kjerstad's possibilities have significant overlap.

Mostly in the positive aspect (prodigious power). Trumbo was a 1B that happened to play some OF, sounds like Kjerstad has acceptable movement for the corners (not cement shoed like Mark). 

[DirtyBird]

Kjerstad and Mountcastle = Dong Brothers

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Mostly in the positive aspect (prodigious power). Trumbo was a 1B that happened to play some OF, sounds like Kjerstad has acceptable movement for the corners (not cement shoed like Mark). 

The thing is he's "acceptable" at 21.  What does that make him at 27?  Looks to me like he has the frame to put on more mass.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

The bolded are at cross purposes in a way. I don't think you can meaningfully limit pickoffs while still allowing base stealing. As the payoff from stealing increases, the attempt to stop it will rise (pickoffs). Limiting pickoff attempts would make stealing almost automatic to the detriment of the game. If you disagree, interested to hear how you think that would work.

You'd have to think through it, experiment in the minors.  My pet idea is to make pickoff throws count as a pitch, just 90' off the plate so it's a ball.  Unless you actually pick off the runner, then it doesn't count on the batter.  So pitchers won't throw over, runners will get bigger and bigger leads, until the pitcher really thinks he has him.  I think that increases baserunning, without making steals automatic.

[DrungoHazewood]

15 hours ago, Sanfran327 said:

Agree. But it's hard to incentivize billionaires that are looking out for their multi-million dollar investments, etc. And some of these changes, while very interesting, sound like they'd require a change to the CBA, which is never easy. Not impossible, but not easy. And I have a hard time buying owners or the MLBPA signing off on much of this. Major League Baseball isn't for the fans, it's for the owners and players. 

It is, until it hits the players and owners in the pocketbook.  Then they'll do anything.

[BohKnowsBmore]

14 hours ago, DirtyBird said:

Kjerstad and Mountcastle = Dong Brothers

Pretty sure the Orioles and MLB try to present themselves as family friendly entertainment...

[Philip]

On 6/11/2020 at 6:05 AM, wildcard said:

Austin Hayes  CF

Diaz  RF

Rutschman C    (S)

Mountcastle 1B

Kjerstad  LF/DH   (L)

Santander LF/DH (S)

Richie Martin SS

Henderson 3B   (L)

Hall/ Westburg/ Greiner 2B

Diaz will arrive  in Baltimore at least a year before Kjerstand.  Diaz can play RF and has above average speed and arm.  He can field.   Diaz will be hard for Kjerstad push out of right field if Diaz reaches his potential.    That moves Kjarstand to left in competition with Santander.  Either can DH.    Kjerstand does help balance the lineup with Rutschman/Kjerstad/Santander/ Henderson able to hit lefty vs right-handed pitching.

Westburg will compete with Richie Martin, Hall, and Greiner for SS/2B.   There is some speed in this lineup with Hayes/Diaz/Martin/Hall/Westburg/Grenier

Note:  I would have taken Lacy over Kjerstad since Elias did not feel Austin Martin was worth the money at #2.

Isn’t Adam Hall a ss? Wouldn’t he be ready by then?