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Five things we’ve learned about Elias after two drafts

Frobby

By Frobby
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Roll Tide Hangout Grand Counsel

Roll Tide

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22 minutes ago, Philip said:

Santander Probably won’t survive the next wave of arrivals, but at the moment he is our second best outfielder. Wilkerson, Stewart, Smith, Mullins are all probably/definitely gone before Santander.

Santander is a bat first guy ....so if your right hopefully he will have trade value 

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Frobby
Frobby

1.   The guy has cojones of steel.    He’ll pick the guys he likes no matter what the consensus is on them.    2.    He’s not afraid of a small sample size if the analytics support an upward tren

interloper
interloper

If you look back at the "sure things" the O's have picked in the pitcher position, it hasn't been great. Bundy and Gausman were about as sure as they come. Oops! Rodriguez was famously thought to be a

Tony-OH
Tony-OH

Our first Elias hater. Somebody has to be first, so congrats!

Philip Hangout Grand Counsel

Philip

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1 hour ago, Roll Tide said:

Santander is a bat first guy ....so if your right hopefully he will have trade value 

I actually thought his defense is pretty good. But if he could be an average player, he will have some trade value, but not much.

It will be interesting to see what he does and the remainder of the season, if there’s any at all

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wildcard Hangout Grand Counsel

wildcard

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Since the O's lineup is mostly right-handed Santander is someone that could stick around for years.    Rutschman, Kjerstad, Henderson and Santander help balance the lineup even if Santander is the DH that can back up the OF corners.

Nunez and Mancini are probably more likely to be let go one way or another.  But that is all off in the distance since it will be 2 to 4 years until Kjerstad and Henderson are ready for the majors.

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makoman Major Leaguer Cup of Coffee

makoman

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I guess it can be fun and all, but we should know better than to try and predict rosters several years out, especially when you are hoping the team is moving from terrible to good. 

From the 25 man roster for the divisional series against the Yankees in 2012, only 7 were even with the organization opening day 2010. (other notables: Markakis was injured, Arrieta and Britton were omitted from the roster). 

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BohKnowsBmore Hangout Grand Counsel

BohKnowsBmore

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On 6/11/2020 at 11:05 PM, Frobby said:

1.   The guy has cojones of steel.    He’ll pick the guys he likes no matter what the consensus is on them.   

2.    He’s not afraid of a small sample size if the analytics support an upward trend.   For example, Kjerstad’s hot month outweighed the strikeout concerns presented the prior two seasons because the O’s projected that his swing changes would have produced a monster season.    

3.    He won’t reach for a pitcher.     If the guys he thinks are worthy of their draft spot aren’t there when it’s his turn to pick, he’ll wait round after round until he sees a good value.    

4.   He likes athletic players.     Not Kjerstad so much (though I think he’s pretty athletic, just not as fast as you’d like), but many of his other picks.   

5.   He’s not afraid of drafting hitters with unorthodox mechanics.

 


 




 

I’d add that’s more it’s clear he prioritizes make up in draftees. We’ve heard the term “growth mindset” used multiple times. This is similar to Theo with Chicago. 

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Jammer7 Hangout Veteran Council

Jammer7

Posted
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On 6/11/2020 at 11:05 PM, Frobby said:

1.   The guy has cojones of steel.    He’ll pick the guys he likes no matter what the consensus is on them.   

2.    He’s not afraid of a small sample size if the analytics support an upward trend.   For example, Kjerstad’s hot month outweighed the strikeout concerns presented the prior two seasons because the O’s projected that his swing changes would have produced a monster season.    

3.    He won’t reach for a pitcher.     If the guys he thinks are worthy of their draft spot aren’t there when it’s his turn to pick, he’ll wait round after round until he sees a good value.    

4.   He likes athletic players.     Not Kjerstad so much (though I think he’s pretty athletic, just not as fast as you’d like), but many of his other picks.   

5.   He’s not afraid of drafting hitters with unorthodox mechanics.

 


 




 

That is a great post. I would add that he has an idea of what type of players and pitchers his development staff can work with best. He seems to have a very strong belief in the development staff. That is why he is not shy about drafting position players who need major swing adjustments like Stowers, Watson and Mayo. (Haskins is unorthodox, but I would not mess with him too much.) He likely weighs personality characteristics heavily to determine if kids are coachable, but he clearly believes in his development staff. 

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

Ruzious

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On 6/18/2020 at 4:49 PM, Philip said:

Santander Probably won’t survive the next wave of arrivals, but at the moment he is our second best outfielder. Wilkerson, Stewart, Smith, Mullins are all probably/definitely gone before Santander.

Santander did fine for a player basically in his rookie year playing all 3 OF positions.  He's a nice cheap asset.    

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Philip Hangout Grand Counsel

Philip

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6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

Santander did fine for a player basically in his rookie year playing all 3 OF positions.  He's a nice cheap asset.    

I think he’s great. He’s versatile, hits ok and he defends ok, though he’s not great in CF.

The idea is that others behind him will be better. Right now, he’s definitely better than a lot of the alternatives, but that won’t be true by 2022.

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Ruzious Hangout Grand Counsel

Ruzious

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3 minutes ago, Philip said:

I think he’s great. He’s versatile, hits ok and he defends ok, though he’s not great in CF.

The idea is that others behind him will be better. Right now, he’s definitely better than a lot of the alternatives, but that won’t be true by 2022.

That's likely true, but it's also a lot to assume.  I think there's some potential upside with him.  

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O-The-Memories All-Star

O-The-Memories

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I've learned that I am likely skewed by being impatient and over reactionary.

That being said, I gave the draft a D after initially saying it "had to be an F" because of the late round selections. I just don't think any other GM would have had a first through third round close to what we had, being in the number 2 position in the draft. I know all teams have unique needs, but we need pitching and OBP, and I don't we got either in the first three rounds. We also have too many OF and SS now. I don't like hearing "has mechanical issues" at all, because so many of those are ingrained and very hard to fix. 

Time will tell, I thought Daniel Cabrera and Luis Matos would have multiple All-Star appearances, so clearly my intuition leaves much to be desired sometimes. 

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DirtyBird Hangout Grand Counsel

DirtyBird

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24 minutes ago, O-The-Memories said:

I've learned that I am likely skewed by being impatient and over reactionary.

That being said, I gave the draft a D after initially saying it "had to be an F" because of the late round selections. I just don't think any other GM would have had a first through third round close to what we had, being in the number 2 position in the draft. I know all teams have unique needs, but we need pitching and OBP, and I don't we got either in the first three rounds. We also have too many OF and SS now. I don't like hearing "has mechanical issues" at all, because so many of those are ingrained and very hard to fix. 

Kjerstad - .513

Westburg - .432

Haskin - .452

Servideo - .575

How do you know that these OBP won't translate, but guys we didn't take will be OBP guys?

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