Grade the Draft

[makoman]

We're competing with two teams that can always be top 5 in payroll, one team that can be top 10, and another that's typically one of the smartest teams in baseball. I don't think we can regularly compete with that by just doing what everyone else is doing. I'm glad they aren't just copy pasting fangraphs or BA rankings, they seem to have identified qualities that might indicate that certain types of players can outplay their consensus value. I like taking that risk so I'm willing to give it a chance, but I give a B cause it could just blow up in our faces. 

Even though Kjerstad wasn't seen as a #2 talent and was probably picked for slot money purposes, I suspect they see him as a lot better than the consensus does. If he'd kept up his early season for an entire year he would surely have risen up the boards. They probably think that's the real him now.

Someone else said it this week, it's too bad we can't trade picks. If you value players differently than the consensus trading is perfect for you. The Ravens are always trading down and claiming they still got their guy. Don't have to worry about finessing the slots if you simply can trade Martin for Kjerstad and a 2nd. 

[Roll Tide]

16 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

I gave it a D. I can't forgive not drafting Martin with the second pick. Advanced metrics and playing draft day chess are great, but  I'm a big proponent of the Keep It Simple Stupid methodology when you have a pick that high. Draft the best available player, especially when he's a very athletic player. 

Agreed .... He clearly didn't take the BPA! Most of us are not stupid enough to believe it

[fitzi22]

I agree with most posters.  I have faith ( I suppose some blind faith) in Elias and this regime.  I think in this draft they were more concerned with adding the number of talented guys and not 1 high talent guy.  Maybe that’s what we need right now.  UDFA’s will show the depth of our talent evaluators and will be interesting.

[sylvester]

I thought we should have drafted more pitching.  Didn't we draft 3 shortstops last year early and two more this year.  You never have enough pitching. You can have too many shortstops.

[Number5]

6 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I think much depends on what Kjerstad turns out to be.     You can look at him as the 10th best player in the draft, or you can look at him as a guy who Elias liked much better than that.     

The early reports I read on him suggested slow, lots of swing and miss, light tower power.    I inferred from that he’d be a below average defensive corner OF, too.    But then later reports (including what Elias said) show some very strong swing adjustments and less swing and miss this year, and he’s apparently a pretty good defender despite his lack of speed.     If he’s truly the best LH hitter in the draft, as Elias believes (or at least says), this strategy may very well pan out.  Only time will tell.   
 

Before the draft started MLB network did a segment on Kjerstad.  Seems like an impressive young man.  He mentioned how his adjustments to his swing had paid off and was excited.

Martin's coach at Vanderbilt was part of MLB network's broadcast team and just as the draft was about to start he was asked what players he thought we should look for in the draft and the first name he said was Kjerstad.  When the Orioles drafted Kjerstad, he said it was a great pick and that the Orioles are going to have to replace a lot of windows in the warehouse.  I was looking for Martin, Lacy, or Gonzales at #2, and didn't really know much about Kjerstad before the draft, but I've got to say I'm warming to the guy and maybe some of us aren't willing to consider the possibility that the guy might just be a gem. 

Interviewed the day before the draft, Elias said he would only go under-slot at #2 if the Orioles had the guy rated as good, or even secretly rated him better, than the players that the various sites had rated at that spot.  He went on the say that if that allows us financial leverage later in the draft, so much the better.  Well, it looks like that's exactly what they did.  I have to admit, I thought "later in the draft" meant pick #30 and/or 39, but now we know he meant much later.  

I've got no real issue with the players we selected in rounds 1A, 2, and 3, per se, as they are reasonable picks for when they were taken.  My question in those cases wasn't who we took, but rather why we didn't go under-slot there.  We found out later, of course, that Elias had a plan in rounds 4 and 5.

Had we grabbed a guy like Kelley at #30 or 39, maybe there would be less vitriol over the pick of Kjerstad.  Or maybe even Wilcox in round 3.  I'm not sure why we didn't, but Elias and his team seem excited by the kids we got in rounds 4 and 5, so I hope they are right.  I was looking at the possibility of Montgomery and Witt in those 2 late rounds, as they were still there and, in fact, went undrafted.  My guess is that perhaps those two were just plain unsignable and had decided that they were going to school.

Too soon to make a real judgment, of course, but I'm going to go with a B.  Had we gone with Kelley or Wilcox as an over-slot when presented with the opportunities to do so, I'd have been really happy.  As it stands, I'm happy, but I'm just not quite as comfortable with the over-slot guys we did get.  I hope they change my mind!

 

[LTO's]

36 minutes ago, wildbillhiccup said:

So DH is a more valuable position? Because that's where I imagine he'll spend the majority of his career. 

FWIW some people don't think Martin has a good enough arm to play CF, SS or 3B. So you are essentially giving full slot value at the second pick to a second baseman. That is not a highly regarded strategy. If he sticks at one of those positions and hits well then we might be looking at a mistake. But, if Kjerstad out slugs him and plays solid OF defense Elias will look like a genius especially if one of the high schoolers make it up here.

[backwardsk]

19 minutes ago, sylvester said:

I thought we should have drafted more pitching.  Didn't we draft 3 shortstops last year early and two more this year.  You never have enough pitching. You can have too many shortstops.

Many guys who get selected as SS end up playing all over the diamond.  Chipper Jones, Gary Sheffield, Tony Womack, Preston Wilson, Michael Tucker, Manny Machado were all drafted are all examples of guys drafted as SS who primarily played elsewhere.

[Spl51]

22 minutes ago, Number5 said:

Before the draft started MLB network did a segment on Kjerstad.  Seems like an impressive young man.  He mentioned how his adjustments to his swing had paid off and was excited.

Martin's coach at Vanderbilt was part of MLB network's broadcast team and just as the draft was about to start he was asked what players he thought we should look for in the draft and the first name he said was Kjerstad.  When the Orioles drafted Kjerstad, he said it was a great pick and that the Orioles are going to have to replace a lot of windows in the warehouse.  I was looking for Martin, Lacy, or Gonzales at #2, and didn't really know much about Kjerstad before the draft, but I've got to say I'm warming to the guy and maybe some of us aren't willing to consider the possibility that the guy might just be a gem. 

Interviewed the day before the draft, Elias said he would only go under-slot at #2 if the Orioles had the guy rated as good, or even secretly rated him better, than the players that the various sites had rated at that spot.  He went on the say that if that allows us financial leverage later in the draft, so much the better.  Well, it looks like that's exactly what they did.  I have to admit, I thought "later in the draft" meant pick #30 and/or 39, but now we know he meant much later.  

I've got no real issue with the players we selected in rounds 1A, 2, and 3, per se, as they are reasonable picks for when they were taken.  My question in those cases wasn't who we took, but rather why we didn't go under-slot there.  We found out later, of course, that Elias had a plan in rounds 4 and 5.

Had we grabbed a guy like Kelley at #30 or 39, maybe there would be less vitriol over the pick of Kjerstad.  Or maybe even Wilcox in round 3.  I'm not sure why we didn't, but Elias and his team seem excited by the kids we got in rounds 4 and 5, so I hope they are right.  I was looking at the possibility of Montgomery and Witt in those 2 late rounds, as they were still there and, in fact, went undrafted.  My guess is that perhaps those two were just plain unsignable and had decided that they were going to school.

Too soon to make a real judgment, of course, but I'm going to go with a B.  Had we gone with Kelley or Wilcox as an over-slot when presented with the opportunities to do so, I'd have been really happy.  As it stands, I'm happy, but I'm just not quite as comfortable with the over-slot guys we did get.  I hope they change my mind!

 

Kelley and Wilcox are the opposite of the type of pitchers Elias wants, so I wasn't surprised. Low 3/4 delivery's with little deception, just average breaking balls, and low spin rates, leading them to get hit more than you would expect with their velocities. Bitsko was his target.

[Moose Milligan]

I'm giving it a C.  I like Kjerstad a little bit, just not where we picked him.  I wanted Martin all along...we need OBP talent.  Kjerstad's power potential is nice but it appears he's a slow outfielder with not much range.  Is that power going to be enough to make up for what he lacks on defense?

The last two picks were nice and saved this from a lower grade.  Much had been made about us picking guys with high exit velocity and if that's the case I'm assuming Elias and Co are confident that they can coach up these guys and get them to make contact more often.

Also, we only took one pitcher.  Outside of Rodriguez and Hall, this organization is devoid of pitching talent.  I was hoping we'd take more arms. 

 

[CallMeBrooksie]

27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

 

Also, we only took one pitcher.  Outside of Rodriguez and Hall, this organization is devoid of pitching talent.  I was hoping we'd take more arms. 

 

I'd quibble with this point. I think pitching depth is an area of strength for our system. Certainly wouldn't say devoid of talent even if you take away the two top guys.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

I'd quibble with this point. I think pitching depth is an area of strength for our system. Certainly wouldn't say devoid of talent even if you take away the two top guys.

Guess we beg to differ.  Take out Rodriguez and Hall, I don't see much.

[CallMeBrooksie]

3 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Guess we beg to differ.  Take out Rodriguez and Hall, I don't see much.

Baumann, Lowther, kremer, harvey, wells, Akin.

It's consider that a fair amount of talent. Not that I wouldn't love to have even more, but it's decent depth 

[Moose Milligan]

2 minutes ago, CallMeBrooksie said:

Baumann, Lowther, kremer, harvey, wells, Akin.

It's consider that a fair amount of talent. Not that I wouldn't love to have even more, but it's decent depth 

Eh, meh.  They're alright.  

[MountUrCastle]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

FWIW some people don't think Martin has a good enough arm to play CF, SS or 3B. So you are essentially giving full slot value at the second pick to a second baseman. That is not a highly regarded strategy. If he sticks at one of those positions and hits well then we might be looking at a mistake. But, if Kjerstad out slugs him and plays solid OF defense Elias will look like a genius especially if one of the high schoolers make it up here.

It's still more value than corner outfield/1B/DH.

[CallMeBrooksie]

4 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Eh, meh.  They're alright.  

Some might say talented