Kjerstad comes in at #99 on BA Top 100

[weams]

 

[Sports Guy]

1 hour ago, Moose Milligan said:

Alright, where would you rank him if there's very little that separates 40 and 100?  I agree with you, fwiw.  But if it's easy to justify a higher ranking based on little that separates those numbers...then it's also easy to justify where he is, too.

I will say this...I would definitely have him behind Rutschman, Hall and GRod in our system..they are basically top 50ish guys on most boards.

I would probably rank him ahead of Mountcastle although that’s tough because at least Mountcastle has played and produced but his lack of position hurts him for me.  Mountcastle has either not been ranked or ranked around where Kjerstad is here.

I think you could justify him in the 70-100 area.

I can see why you would have certain guys from the draft ahead of him.  Whether it’s more elite numbers or play a more premium position, it makes sense.  End of the day though, these guys are being ranked based on hype.  Doesn’t mean much right now.

 

[Moose Milligan]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

I will say this...I would have definitely have him behind Rutschman, Hall and GRod in our system..they are basically top 50ish guys on most boards.

I would probably rank him ahead of Mountcastle although that’s tough because at least Mountcastle has played and produced but his lack of position hurts him for me.  Mountcastle has either not been ranked or ranked around where Kjerstad is here.

I think you could justify him in the 70-100 area.

I can see why you would have certain guys from the draft ahead of him.  Whether it’s more elite numbers or play a more premium position, it makes sense.  End of the day though, these guys are being ranked based on hype.  Doesn’t mean much right now.

 

Understood.  Again, I don't totally disagree.  Mountcastle's lack of position hurts him for me, too, also the BB/K rate.  Kjerstad might already be better in terms of BB/K rate but he's not a great defender from what I understand.  While he sticks in a corner outfield spot, he's not a great defender, and IIRC, people said he's a future DH...which kind of makes him almost a wash for me when comping him to Mountcastle...both of these guys don't do enough with defense.  

And I agree, these guys are being ranked on hype.  

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, Moose Milligan said:

Understood.  Again, I don't totally disagree.  Mountcastle's lack of position hurts him for me, too, also the BB/K rate.  Kjerstad might already be better in terms of BB/K rate but he's not a great defender from what I understand.  While he sticks in a corner outfield spot, he's not a great defender, and IIRC, people said he's a future DH...which kind of makes him almost a wash for me when comping him to Mountcastle...both of these guys don't do enough with defense.  

And I agree, these guys are being ranked on hype.  

Everything I have seen is that he will be fine in RF and has a strong arm.  He probably isn’t going to be some elite defender but he won’t hurt you and his arm can make up for some issues.  RF isn’t that hard to play in OPACY and having a strong arm helps when you are playing balls off the scoreboard.

Still, he’s not getting a boost because of his defense.  Don’t think it hurts him but doesn’t help him either.  
 

But if a guy like Martin ends up at second and doesn’t hit for much power, he isn’t someone I would take at 2...I actually may have preferred Gonzalez over him...but again, that’s if you don’t think Martin sticks on the left side.  If he is an everyday player on the left side of the infield, the Os likely made a big mistake by not taking him.

[Aristotelian]

Witt, Vaughn, Bleday all came in at top 30 on MLB list. Have to say this is disappointing although I don't think the ranking is unfair. 

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Everything I have seen is that he will be fine in RF and has a strong arm.  He probably isn’t going to be some elite defender but he won’t hurt you and his arm can make up for some issues.  RF isn’t that hard to play in OPACY and having a strong arm helps when you are playing balls off the scoreboard.

Still, he’s not getting a boost because of his defense.  Don’t think it hurts him but doesn’t help him either.  
 

But if a guy like Martin ends up at second and doesn’t hit for much power, he isn’t someone I would take at 2...I actually may have preferred Gonzalez over him...but again, that’s if you don’t think Martin sticks on the left side.  If he is an everyday player on the left side of the infield, the Os likely made a big mistake by not taking him.

It was a weaker draft at the top. 

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Aristotelian said:

Witt, Vaughn, Bleday all came in at top 30 on MLB list. Have to say this is disappointing although I don't think the ranking is unfair. 

I wasn't impressed with the numbers Witt put up last year.  I think the questions about his hit tool are still in play.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

It was a weaker draft at the top. 

Yes it was..but the question is, was the talent weaker or did the unknown of not having those last 3-4 months make it weaker?

We don’t know how things would have been different had these guys played their normal season.  I mean, the biggest knock on Kjerstad is swing and miss but he had started to make some strides in that, albeit in a small sample size.  Had that lasted the whole season and he puts up gaudy numbers, he probably looks like a top 5 pick on most boards.

[Number5]

3 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes it was..but the question is, was the talent weaker or did the unknown of not having those last 3-4 months make it weaker?

We don’t know how things would have been different had these guys played their normal season.  I mean, the biggest knock on Kjerstad is swing and miss but he had started to make some strides in that, albeit in a small sample size.  Had that lasted the whole season and he puts up gaudy numbers, he probably looks like a top 5 pick on most boards.

Apparently Sig's model projecting the season did have Kjerstad doing exactly that.

[Can_of_corn]

29 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yes it was..but the question is, was the talent weaker or did the unknown of not having those last 3-4 months make it weaker?

We don’t know how things would have been different had these guys played their normal season.  I mean, the biggest knock on Kjerstad is swing and miss but he had started to make some strides in that, albeit in a small sample size.  Had that lasted the whole season and he puts up gaudy numbers, he probably looks like a top 5 pick on most boards.

I don't think it is likely that anyone would have passed Tork and I don't think Tork would have gone higher than third in the 2019 draft. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I don't think it is likely that anyone would have passed Tork and I don't think Tork would have gone higher than third in the 2019 draft. 

Ehh, not sure I buy that, at least the first part.  Tork has a good bat but he essentially has to have an elite bat for the pick to be worth because he isn’t going to provide positional value or value on the bases.

The thing that potentially held back Martin was his position.  If he left no doubt that he could play SS or even third, he may have been the first pick.  I think you also never know about a HS kid and how much they explode.  I really liked Veen.  He could have been a wow star this year and entered the #1 pick talk.  I’m not sure any of the pitchers would have been in play but it’s possible.

 

 

[makoman]

https://www.fangraphs.com/prospects/the-board/2020-mlb-draft/summary?sort=1,-1&type=0&team=

Fangraphs apparently has Kjerstad at 110. However they have him as 50 FV, tied for 2nd highest in this class with several others (only Tork was at 55). Everyone from 47 to 100 was FV 50.

Edited June 26, 2020 by makoman

[DanS]

 

Here's my Chuck Thompson straddle the fence on this topic:

Prospect evaluation is difficult.  It is more difficult with players who have played zero games of pro ball, and even tougher this year due to the small sample size.  I wouldn't put too much weight on these rankings, but objectively, this says that the evaluators believe that we picked the 8th best prospect with the 2nd pick.

I was encouraged by the Vandy coach Corbin talking up Kjerstad on MLB network before we chose him.  He is clearly one of the top coaches in college baseball, and he saw him several times in conference play.

[Number5]

45 minutes ago, DanS said:

 

Here's my Chuck Thompson straddle the fence on this topic:

Prospect evaluation is difficult.  It is more difficult with players who have played zero games of pro ball, and even tougher this year due to the small sample size.  I wouldn't put too much weight on these rankings, but objectively, this says that the evaluators believe that we picked the 8th best prospect with the 2nd pick.

I was encouraged by the Vandy coach Corbin talking up Kjerstad on MLB network before we chose him.  He is clearly one of the top coaches in college baseball, and he saw him several times in conference play.

Yes, I saw that, and when we did make the pick, he said it was a great pick and that the Orioles will have to replace a lot of windows in the warehouse with Kjerstad hitting!

[Ruzious]

How does that song go?  "99 prospects and Kjerstad is one."  I think that's it.