Orioles Sign Heston Kjerstad

[DrungoHazewood]

10 hours ago, RZNJ said:

No. They are definitely better.  They couldn't possibly be worse and it's clear they aren't as bad.

I don't know how anyone could objectively look at the situation and decide that the sons are worse than the old man.  Peter presided over the 1998-2011 debacle, was the common thread in the 1990s-2018 farm/development train wreck, bizarrely kept payroll at league average through the 2000s while the organization crumbled, he pretty obviously orchestrated the Davis signing.  And it certainly fits that Duquette acted the way he did with regards to the future and (lack of) building the organization because of direction from the top. 

The Mike Elias hire couldn't have been a more thorough repudiation of Peter Angelos' philosophy.

[Moose Milligan]

16 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the counter to this is, did they pass on a talent higher on their board because they wanted to save money?

We are still run by the Angelos family and they still are terrible owners, even if the sons are a little better than their old man.

Its obvious Elias wanted someone who he felt would fall, like Blitsko, and it didn’t work out.  And if he got guys he truly wanted, great.  But if he passed on a guy like Wilcox or Jared Kelley so that the Angelos family didn’t have to spend that extra money, I have an issue with that.

We probably will never know but it’s certainly reasonable to assume imo.

I get it, but if they left 300k or so on the table, how much better talent could they have afforded?  Or are you talking about going over the pool allotment?

I agree with your take on being owned/run by the Angelos family.  

[Frobby]

Here’s a nice database of what players have signed for and what their slot value was:  https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/

Here’s the top ten guys (slot/actual)

Torkelson $8.4/$8.4

Kjerstad $7.8/$5.2

Meyer $7.2/$7.2

Lacy $6.7/$6.7

Martin $6.2/—

Hancock $5.7/$5.7

Gonzalez $5.4/$5.4

Hassell $5.2/$4.3

Veen $4.9/$5.0

Detmers $4.7/$4.7

Basically, everyone signed for slot except Kjerstad (-$2.6 mm) and Hassell (-$900 k), and Martin is the only unsigned player in the top 10.     I think it’s possible that his agent overplayed his hand.   

[Sports Guy]

27 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I get it, but if they left 300k or so on the table, how much better talent could they have afforded?  Or are you talking about going over the pool allotment?

I agree with your take on being owned/run by the Angelos family.  

For me, the draft critiques are Westburg and Haskin.  Could they have used the 300-500k that could be left over to draft someone higher on their board?  And if so, did they not take the player because the Angelos family said they didn’t want to spend everything?

weams could be right..maybe the reports aren’t right and the numbers are slightly higher or maybe the Os just negotiated well and got players for less or maybe they  have to pay Servideo above slot.

However, I can’t help but wonder if the Angelos fam is cheapening out some.

[Number5]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a nice database of what players have signed for and what their slot value was:  https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/

Here’s the top ten guys (slot/actual)

Torkelson $8.4/$8.4

Kjerstad $7.8/$5.2

Meyer $7.2/$7.2

Lacy $6.7/$6.7

Martin $6.2/—

Hancock $5.7/$5.7

Gonzalez $5.4/$5.4

Hassell $5.2/$4.3

Veen $4.9/$5.0

Detmers $4.7/$4.7

Basically, everyone signed for slot except Kjerstad (-$2.6 mm) and Hassell (-$900 k), and Martin is the only unsigned player in the top 10.     I think it’s possible that his agent overplayed his hand.   

Per MLBTR, Meyer signed for 6.7.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/06/marlins-first-rounder-max-meyer-agree-to-deal.html

[Roll Tide]

12 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

I think it's far too early to declare that the sons are better owners than Peter was.

Hey ... We actually agree!

[Roll Tide]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Here’s a nice database of what players have signed for and what their slot value was:  https://www.spotrac.com/mlb/draft/

Here’s the top ten guys (slot/actual)

Torkelson $8.4/$8.4

Kjerstad $7.8/$5.2

Meyer $7.2/$7.2

Lacy $6.7/$6.7

Martin $6.2/—

Hancock $5.7/$5.7

Gonzalez $5.4/$5.4

Hassell $5.2/$4.3

Veen $4.9/$5.0

Detmers $4.7/$4.7

Basically, everyone signed for slot except Kjerstad (-$2.6 mm) and Hassell (-$900 k), and Martin is the only unsigned player in the top 10.     I think it’s possible that his agent overplayed his hand.   

I am surprised that Meyer got slot! I am going to be very interested in how that turns out. They must believe that he was the best pitcher in the draft.

Just saw that he might have taken 500K less, Not really a big savings so I think they must think he's the best pitcher. You don't pass on the best pitcher to save $500 IMO

 

 

[Roll Tide]

56 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I get it, but if they left 300k or so on the table, how much better talent could they have afforded?  Or are you talking about going over the pool allotment?

I agree with your take on being owned/run by the Angelos family.  

Its just my unpopular opinion that they $300 doesn't really matter

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Roll Tide said:

I am surprised that Meyer got slot! I am going to be very interested in how that turns out. They must believe that he was the best pitcher in the draft.

Just saw that he might have taken 500K less, Not really a big savings so I think they must think he's the best pitcher. You don't pass on the best pitcher to save $500 IMO

 

 

It doesn’t say Meyer got overslot.  He got slot.

I would have taken him over any other pitcher as well.

[Moose Milligan]

1 minute ago, Roll Tide said:

Its just my unpopular opinion that they $300 doesn't really matter

I think it's more about how you're presenting things, hombre. 

[interloper]

12 hours ago, Beef Supreme said:

I think it's far too early to declare that the sons are better owners than Peter was.

Is it? It was the sons who saw the writing on the wall and decided to throw PA's anti-international market thing in the trash. They saw the analytics trend in the game and brought in guys who could bring them up to speed. So in that regard they're at least trying to modernize and catch up to the rest of baseball, to which the O's were like a decade or more behind. 

None of that is stuff PA would have done. 

What we DON'T know is how they will or won't spend money when it makes sense to. So in that sense it's too early. But I don't really find fault with anything they've done with regards to the rebuild and getting the right people in here. If you want to criticize them for not releasing Chris Davis, I understand that argument 100%. To me, that's largely meaningless right now, but I get it.

[Frobby]

So here’s a question: assuming that we could have afforded to sign Nick Gonzalez and still signed the other players we drafted, would you rather have had Gonzalez than Kjerstad?     It appears he only cost an extra $200 k or so and that we may have more than that to spare after signing Servideo.

[Number5]

20 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It doesn’t say Meyer got overslot.  He got slot.

I would have taken him over any other pitcher as well.

As I posted above, not according to MLBTR.

[weams]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

It doesn’t say Meyer got overslot.  He got slot.

I would have taken him over any other pitcher as well.

I liked Lacy too. But Meyer is good. 

[makoman]

57 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

For me, the draft critiques are Westburg and Haskin.  Could they have used the 300-500k that could be left over to draft someone higher on their board?  And if so, did they not take the player because the Angelos family said they didn’t want to spend everything?

weams could be right..maybe the reports aren’t right and the numbers are slightly higher or maybe the Os just negotiated well and got players for less or maybe they  have to pay Servideo above slot.

However, I can’t help but wonder if the Angelos fam is cheapening out some.

So who then? 

Westburg signed for slot $2.365M. Who should they have taken instead that cost more?

Loftin was 2 picks later for $3M. Fangraphs had them ranked back to back with Westburg higher, so we can't really say they took a lesser guy to be cheap.

Wilcox, Kelley, and Ginn signed for $3.3M, $3M, and $2.9M. That's a lot more, and our extra couple 100k wouldn't get there. Kyle Harrison signed for $2.5M, but was rated far lower than Westburg by everybody. That's it who signed above and was drafted after Westburg so far, that I saw. I haven't seen Fulton reported but he's supposed to be over slot--I can see this org shying away from an injured guy though.

Anyway, if they wanted any of those guys they could have had them and still not spent all the money, by simply taking them instead of Haskin for $1.9 and not signing Baumler or Mayo. Neither of those guys were a sure thing when they drafted Haskin, it would have been reasonable to just use that extra money set aside for Baumler right then and there if they loved Wilcox. Or take Wilcox instead of Servideo and then just forget about Mayo and Baumler. A lot of fans would have been thrilled with Wilcox instead of Haskin plus a senior sign in the 5th. Apparently they didn't love Wilcox, or they simply preferred Haskin plus another overslot chance later.

Maybe they should have taken Casey Martin instead of Servideo. I can buy that, though he did strike out over 30% of the time this year and some think he'll leave short for CF, but it's impossible to say without knowing their board. They must have seen a lot of Martin in scouting Kjerstad. But anyway, they clearly decided that for some people the small sample size was projectable and Servideo had a hell of a good small sample size, it's reasonable to say they just liked him.

I can understand being wary based on this org's history, but it's hard to critique without a reason behind it. To do so is just making stuff up, just like I made some stuff up above about their preferences. It's also hard to critique not going over slot when they did go over slot, twice.

Edited July 1, 2020 by makoman