Stewart optioned

[makoman]

1 hour ago, Big Mac said:

He also put up an .859 OPS in Bowie in 2017.  He only has 211 ML plate appearances and has still managed a .709 OPS.  I'm not completely giving up hope, but I don't think it's likely he becomes more than a platoon guy. 

He's been above average by wRC+ at every stop except Aberdeen right after being drafted and the past two seasons in the majors. He's just lost right now and clearly isn't this bad, but I agree it's probably not likely he'll ever be a major contributor.

[DrungoHazewood]

14 minutes ago, makoman said:

He's been above average by wRC+ at every stop except Aberdeen right after being drafted and the past two seasons in the majors. He's just lost right now and clearly isn't this bad, but I agree it's probably not likely he'll ever be a major contributor.

Average wRC+ for a grade C left fielder isn't 100, it's more like 115.  A 100 wRC+ with -5 or -10 defense doesn't play.

[makoman]

Just now, DrungoHazewood said:

Average wRC+ for a grade C left fielder isn't 100, it's more like 115.  A 100 wRC+ with -5 or -10 defense doesn't play.

That's fair, but webbrick was acting like he should have been out of baseball before he got to Frederick. Other than Aberdeen, places where he had 240+ PAs were:

2016 Delmarva 114

2016 Frederick 135

2017 Bowie 137

2018 Norfolk 101

2019 Norfolk 139

That's adequate enough for an averageish LF.

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, makoman said:

That's fair, but webbrick was acting like he should have been out of baseball before he got to Frederick. Other than Aberdeen, places where he had 240+ PAs were:

2016 Delmarva 114

2016 Frederick 135

2017 Bowie 137

2018 Norfolk 101

2019 Norfolk 139

That's adequate enough for an averageish LF.

He's literally been on this same track since DJ was drafted, pretty sure if you check the draft thread he's ripping Stewart.  I have to admire his dedication.

[DrungoHazewood]

26 minutes ago, makoman said:

That's fair, but webbrick was acting like he should have been out of baseball before he got to Frederick. Other than Aberdeen, places where he had 240+ PAs were:

2016 Delmarva 114

2016 Frederick 135

2017 Bowie 137

2018 Norfolk 101

2019 Norfolk 139

That's adequate enough for an averageish LF.

 

20 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

He's literally been on this same track since DJ was drafted, pretty sure if you check the draft thread he's ripping Stewart.  I have to admire his dedication.

That was 2015, so he was still smarting from the O's not taking his advice and tearing the whole thing to the ground in May of '14.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, NCRaven said:

Have to call BS on this.  If that is your criteria for draft picks, the vast majority of them are "mistakes" because the vast majority of draft picks never get more than a cup of coffee in the bigs, if that.

Of course, that’s my point a pick is a mistake If it doesn’t work out. Now, there’s a difference between being a mistake and being an illogical choice. A pick can be a logical choice and still be a mistake, and it is a mistake if it does not work out.
how can a choice that fails be otherwise? “ we should not have chosen X” Is without a doubt the most common eventual comment about most draft choices.

Of COURSE  The vast majority of choices are mistakes. Even the most logical choice is a mistake if it fails.

[Can_of_corn]

Mistake:

Quote

an error in action, calculation, opinion, or judgment caused by poor reasoning, carelessness, insufficient knowledge, etc.

a misunderstanding or misconception.

Unless you consider the fact that teams can't see into the future an example of insufficient knowledge I'm not sure how the term mistake applies in a lot of these cases.

Teams can be careful, use sound reasoning and gather as much information as can reasonably be collected on these kids and still not make the hindsight optimal pick.

[Camden_yardbird]

I think people are being a little harsh on Stewart and I think that he will have some decent seasons.  

That said, he is a clear case of why you don't, at least in baseball (not football), consider someone's leadership qualities when drafting them.  I remember a lot being made of the fact that he was an amazing leader and captain at FSU and that was key to him being noticed by the Orioles.  Leadership doeant matter if a player can't stay on the field.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

Overall, it just sounds like a pointless argument on semantics. Whether we call it a "mistake" or a "miss" or a "guy that just didn't work out." It's more important on what the team does going forward than dwelling on the past. Once a guy is in the system, it shouldn't matter where he was drafted or how much money he got in a signing bonus, but rather how he profiles going forward and how he produces, improves, etc. That, of course, is not to say minor league production is the be-all, end-all. Guys are drafted high because of apparent tools. Sometimes those tools don't translate, sometimes they take longer. Regardless, the point I'm dancing around here is Stewart's draft position is irrelevant now. What is relevant is what he could mean for this team going forward. While it looks like a long shot he'll be an everyday player, he could still be a platoon/part-time guy. He could also be out of baseball in a couple years. Where the Orioles are right now, they need to see what he can do. He has a better chance than Smith and a few others on the roster. If the team sees something in his swing or approach they feel they can fix getting him away from the team and to the alternate sight for a bit, I'm all for this move, but I would like to see him back this year and getting another look even if inconsistently with the likelihood of Mountcastle there by the time he returns.

I’m not the guy who called Stewart a mistake, Although I do not disagree with the claim. Guys who are drafted in the first round have certain expectations. It is not unusual for them to fail to meet those expectations, but those expectations exist. If they did not exist it wouldn’t matter where you picked somebody. Stewart was picked number 25 in the first round because he was expected to perform better than number 26 in the first round, or number one in the second round. That’s the way these things work.

Drungo mentioned four 2015 guys who have done well, all of whom were chosen before Stewart. Well, duh. They were chosen ahead of him because they were expected to do better than him, and they have.
 

I agree both with the idea that we are arguing semantics, and with the idea that what matters isn’t  where you are drafted, as much as it is how you perform.

Being drafted in the first round comes with expectations, that is undeniable, and it is also undeniable that Stewart has not lived up to them to this point. That’s what matters.

 

[Morgan423]

2 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Have to call BS on this.  If that is your criteria for draft picks, the vast majority of them are "mistakes" because the vast majority of draft picks never get more than a cup of coffee in the bigs, if that.

 

1 hour ago, jamalshw said:

Overall, it just sounds like a pointless argument on semantics. Whether we call it a "mistake" or a "miss" or a "guy that just didn't work out." ...

A lot the issue is unrealistic fan expectations regarding draft picks.  Many seem to think that the hit percentage is many times larger than what it actually is. 

Or that we are terrible at drafting players, when statistically, we haven't really varied much from league average.  

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, makoman said:

That's fair, but webbrick was acting like he should have been out of baseball before he got to Frederick. Other than Aberdeen, places where he had 240+ PAs were:

2016 Delmarva 114

2016 Frederick 135

2017 Bowie 137

2018 Norfolk 101

2019 Norfolk 139

That's adequate enough for an averageish LF.

What matters is how he plays in the show. Someone said somewhere that the lead from AAA to the majors is the biggest leap in all of professional sports. It’s why we constantly talk about AAAA guys, The players who just can’t carve out a spot for them selves in the show, but they get lots of opportunities because they are THIS close. And they stumble around from team to team for three or four years, Enough to amass a reasonable bank account, health insurance and pension, and then they open a car dealership and decorate it with photos of their playing days.

”I could’a been a contendah...”

[DrungoHazewood]

13 minutes ago, Philip said:

Being drafted in the first round comes with expectations, that is undeniable, and it is also undeniable that Stewart has not lived up to them to this point. That’s what matters.

In most cases completely unreasonable expectations.  Stewart, right now, is about an average #25 overall pick.  About 20 #25s (out of 55) never played in the majors for even a single game.  About 10 more had MLB careers below replacement level.  Mike Trout is the only #25 so far who's going to be in the Hall.  Only five players in that spot (less than 10%) had solid MLB careers (10+ WAR).

The Orioles have had two picks in that slot.  Stewart and Wayne Wilson ('83).  Wilson was out of baseball by the age of 22, having thrown less than 400 minor league innings to a 4.90 ERA.  The Nats took Seth Romero in '17 at #25, so far in 47 minor league innings in A ball and below he's 0-2 with a 4.37 and hasn't pitched since 2018.

The draft is an unusual thing.  You have to be a 90th or 95th percentile success story to reach a minimal level of acceptance.  To me calling someone better than 75% or 85% of his highly graded peers a failure and a mistake is strange.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

17 minutes ago, Philip said:

What matters is how he plays in the show. Someone said somewhere that the lead from AAA to the majors is the biggest leap in all of professional sports. It’s why we constantly talk about AAAA guys, The players who just can’t carve out a spot for them selves in the show, but they get lots of opportunities because they are THIS close. And they stumble around from team to team for three or four years, Enough to amass a reasonable bank account, health insurance and pension, and then they open a car dealership and decorate it with photos of their playing days.

”I could’a been a contendah...”

[DrungoHazewood]

18 minutes ago, Philip said:

What matters is how he plays in the show. Someone said somewhere that the lead from AAA to the majors is the biggest leap in all of professional sports.

I know this isn't the main focus of discussion here so I won't dwell on it, but I don't think that's remotely true.

[DrungoHazewood]

36 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

I think people are being a little harsh on Stewart and I think that he will have some decent seasons.  

That said, he is a clear case of why you don't, at least in baseball (not football), consider someone's leadership qualities when drafting them.  I remember a lot being made of the fact that he was an amazing leader and captain at FSU and that was key to him being noticed by the Orioles.  Leadership doeant matter if a player can't stay on the field.

I think it was far more important that he OPS'd 1.093 on a 44-21 team where no one else got to .850.