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What do you think the opening day rotation will be for Bowie?


MarkakisFan21

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While that could happen, the difference between the walk rates of Hernandez (71 in 141 IP) and Tillman (65 in 135 IP) is negligible. I think if DH gets held back it will be because the O's want him to continue to refine his change-up and reduce his fly ball ratio.

I believe Tillman showed much better progress as the year went on - including a strong August from a lower walk perspective.

I'm not saying I would hold DH back, I'm saying DH is a better candidate to be held back than Tillman, IMO.

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I believe Tillman showed much better progress as the year went on - including a strong August from a lower walk perspective.

I'm not saying I would hold DH back, I'm saying DH is a better candidate to be held back than Tillman, IMO.

What makes you think that Tillman will be at Bowie? There is no reason for him and DHernandez too repeat AA. They both had great years and they need to be challenged, and AAA ball will do that. Tillman and Hernandez will be at Norfolk.

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Dont forget he is pitching in the HWL this winter so it is extra experience to base a promotion on, though IMO he will probably earn himself a spot at Frederick again with a poor HWL.

I believe Matusz is heading to the Arizona Fall League, which some say has higher caliber players than AA. If he pitches well in the AFL I fully expect him to open up in Bowie.

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What makes you think that Tillman will be at Bowie? There is no reason for him and DHernandez too repeat AA. They both had great years and they need to be challenged, and AAA ball will do that. Tillman and Hernandez will be at Norfolk.

Agree with this. There is no point to hold either back.

If you want to hold either back, why not just leave Arrieta at Frederick? His BB% was 11 at Frederick (Tillman was at 11.2, Hernandez was at 11.9). Or if you want Hernandez to work on his FB%, why not just leave Tillman back as well? Hernandez's FB% was 37, Tillman's was 40.

My point is, both have succeeded at AA and there is no reason to hold either back. The standards for promotion shouldn't be so high where one specific peripheral stat is reason to not promote somebody.

Now, I know some people aren't calling for anybody to be held back and are just suggesting players that should be held back in case the organization does make that decision. But in reality, neither should be held back. I do understand somebody might get caught in a numbers-crunch...but it shouldn't be for somebody like Brian Burress for example.

If a player does end up struggling, then you can send them back, but players need to be challenged. The only reason I could see leaving a player back (besides a numbers-crunch) is if the organization views the environment at Bowie to be more challenging than the environment at Norfolk and that may actually be the case because of the park they play in.

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DHernandez walked a batter every other inning. Do you really believe there is "no reason" to keep him at Bowie?

Didn't you read this post by NaVoa:

If you want to hold either back, why not just leave Arrieta at Frederick? His BB% was 11 at Frederick (Tillman was at 11.2, Hernandez was at 11.9). Or if you want Hernandez to work on his FB%, why not just leave Tillman back as well? Hernandez's FB% was 37, Tillman's was 40.
the difference between the walk rates of Hernandez (71 in 141 IP) and Tillman (65 in 135 IP) is negligible.

If you hold Hernandez back then you hold back Tillman and Arrieta. All of them had command issues. Why the emphasis on Hernandez's command issues, when it's obvious we have several pitchers with the same problem.

Hernandez 4.53(BB/9)

Tillman 4.31(BB/9)

Arrieta 4.06(BB/9)

All 3 walked a batter every other inning.

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If you hold Hernandez back then you hold back Tillman and Arrieta. All of them had command issues. Why the emphasis on Hernandez's command issues, when it's obvious we have several pitchers with the same problem.

Hernandez 4.53(BB/9)

Tillman 4.31(BB/9)

Arrieta 4.06(BB/9)

All 3 walked a batter every other inning.

Remember that BB rate is only one component of command. The other is where are your strikes going.

GO/AO

Hernandez 0.74, 10 HR

Tillman 0.82, 10 HR

Arrieta 1.14, 7 HR

Arrieta has more of a tendency to keep the ball on the ground and in the park. I think both Tillman and Hernandez need to work on that. It may be hard for them to work on it at Norfolk, which rewards fly ball pitchers and thus won't discourage them from continuing to rely on fly outs.

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Remember that BB rate is only one component of command. The other is where are your strikes going.

GO/AO

Hernandez 0.74, 10 HR

Tillman 0.82, 10 HR

Arrieta 1.14, 7 HR

Arrieta has more of a tendency to keep the ball on the ground and in the park. I think both Tillman and Hernandez need to work on that. It may be hard for them to work on it at Norfolk, which rewards fly ball pitchers and thus won't discourage them from continuing to rely on fly outs.

Would it be beneficial to move the fences in? Do the Orioles have any imput on the matter. You would think it would benefit not only the pitcher in developing them, but also our hitter would benefit also.

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Remember that BB rate is only one component of command. The other is where are your strikes going.

GO/AO

Hernandez 0.74, 10 HR

Tillman 0.82, 10 HR

Arrieta 1.14, 7 HR

Arrieta has more of a tendency to keep the ball on the ground and in the park. I think both Tillman and Hernandez need to work on that. It may be hard for them to work on it at Norfolk, which rewards fly ball pitchers and thus won't discourage them from continuing to rely on fly outs.

I think GB:FB ratio is something very difficult to work on unless you're talking about the development of a specific pitch type. I'm not sure Hernandez or Tillman throw a 2-seam fastball to induce grounders.

I don't think you see a pitcher dramatically improve their GB% unless the pitcher has added a new pitch to their repertoire.

As for homeruns, they are strongly correlated with the number of homeruns given up, so naturally Hernandez is going to give up more homeruns. But if you look at the percentage of FBs that become HRs for each pitcher:

Arrieta - 6.5%

Tillman - 6.2%

Hernandez - 6%

I don't see a big issue here. And I don't think the ballpark would dissuade a pitcher from throwing ground balls. In fact, I don't really think a pitcher intentionally tries to throw ground balls. It depends on the pitch a pitcher throws. If a pitch is not designed to induce a ground ball, I'm not sure you can work on getting ground balls. You can work on keeping the ball down in the zone, but if there was an indication of Hernandez getting hit hard because he was leaving the ball up, it doesn't really show up in the numbers.

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I'd say my projection would be Matusz, Arrieta, Spoone, Erbe and one of Clark/Renshaw/Bascom.

Spoone is out most of the season. Like I said, I would expect Patton at Bowie to help him acclimate back.

When will Spoone be coming back from his injury? If he wasn't hurt and was able to perform would he be starting at Norfolk?

Spoone Has Surgery

Right-handed pitching prospect Chorye Spoone had surgery earlier this month to repair a slight Slap tear in his right shoulder and will likely miss a sizable part of the 2009 season. It's the latest blow to an organization that has lost several of its top young arms pitchers for extended periods because of serious injuries.

"It should be closer to midseason when he'll be ready to pitch in games," said David Stockstill, the Orioles director of player development. "We're very hopeful about his long-term [recovery]. There's been nothing said by the doctors or anybody else that we shouldn't be. We'll just let him go through rehab and the throwing program, and when he's ready to pitch in games, we'll put him in there."

So Spoone will be back by the All Star Game at the earliest.

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Spoone is out most of the season. Like I said, I would expect Patton at Bowie to help him acclimate back.

Spoone Has Surgery

So Spoone will be back by the All Star Game at the earliest.

I doubt they move Patton back to Double-A. As for Spoone, he may be back by mid-season if all goes well. Without Spoone, this may give an opportunity to Bascom a bigger opportunity to move up despite a poor 2008.

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