Jump to content

What do you think the opening day rotation will be for Bowie?


MarkakisFan21

Recommended Posts

While that could happen, the difference between the walk rates of Hernandez (71 in 141 IP) and Tillman (65 in 135 IP) is negligible. I think if DH gets held back it will be because the O's want him to continue to refine his change-up and reduce his fly ball ratio.

I believe Tillman showed much better progress as the year went on - including a strong August from a lower walk perspective.

I'm not saying I would hold DH back, I'm saying DH is a better candidate to be held back than Tillman, IMO.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I believe Tillman showed much better progress as the year went on - including a strong August from a lower walk perspective.

I'm not saying I would hold DH back, I'm saying DH is a better candidate to be held back than Tillman, IMO.

What makes you think that Tillman will be at Bowie? There is no reason for him and DHernandez too repeat AA. They both had great years and they need to be challenged, and AAA ball will do that. Tillman and Hernandez will be at Norfolk.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Dont forget he is pitching in the HWL this winter so it is extra experience to base a promotion on, though IMO he will probably earn himself a spot at Frederick again with a poor HWL.

I believe Matusz is heading to the Arizona Fall League, which some say has higher caliber players than AA. If he pitches well in the AFL I fully expect him to open up in Bowie.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

What makes you think that Tillman will be at Bowie? There is no reason for him and DHernandez too repeat AA. They both had great years and they need to be challenged, and AAA ball will do that. Tillman and Hernandez will be at Norfolk.

Agree with this. There is no point to hold either back.

If you want to hold either back, why not just leave Arrieta at Frederick? His BB% was 11 at Frederick (Tillman was at 11.2, Hernandez was at 11.9). Or if you want Hernandez to work on his FB%, why not just leave Tillman back as well? Hernandez's FB% was 37, Tillman's was 40.

My point is, both have succeeded at AA and there is no reason to hold either back. The standards for promotion shouldn't be so high where one specific peripheral stat is reason to not promote somebody.

Now, I know some people aren't calling for anybody to be held back and are just suggesting players that should be held back in case the organization does make that decision. But in reality, neither should be held back. I do understand somebody might get caught in a numbers-crunch...but it shouldn't be for somebody like Brian Burress for example.

If a player does end up struggling, then you can send them back, but players need to be challenged. The only reason I could see leaving a player back (besides a numbers-crunch) is if the organization views the environment at Bowie to be more challenging than the environment at Norfolk and that may actually be the case because of the park they play in.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

DHernandez walked a batter every other inning. Do you really believe there is "no reason" to keep him at Bowie?

Didn't you read this post by NaVoa:

If you want to hold either back, why not just leave Arrieta at Frederick? His BB% was 11 at Frederick (Tillman was at 11.2, Hernandez was at 11.9). Or if you want Hernandez to work on his FB%, why not just leave Tillman back as well? Hernandez's FB% was 37, Tillman's was 40.
the difference between the walk rates of Hernandez (71 in 141 IP) and Tillman (65 in 135 IP) is negligible.

If you hold Hernandez back then you hold back Tillman and Arrieta. All of them had command issues. Why the emphasis on Hernandez's command issues, when it's obvious we have several pitchers with the same problem.

Hernandez 4.53(BB/9)

Tillman 4.31(BB/9)

Arrieta 4.06(BB/9)

All 3 walked a batter every other inning.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

If you hold Hernandez back then you hold back Tillman and Arrieta. All of them had command issues. Why the emphasis on Hernandez's command issues, when it's obvious we have several pitchers with the same problem.

Hernandez 4.53(BB/9)

Tillman 4.31(BB/9)

Arrieta 4.06(BB/9)

All 3 walked a batter every other inning.

Remember that BB rate is only one component of command. The other is where are your strikes going.

GO/AO

Hernandez 0.74, 10 HR

Tillman 0.82, 10 HR

Arrieta 1.14, 7 HR

Arrieta has more of a tendency to keep the ball on the ground and in the park. I think both Tillman and Hernandez need to work on that. It may be hard for them to work on it at Norfolk, which rewards fly ball pitchers and thus won't discourage them from continuing to rely on fly outs.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Remember that BB rate is only one component of command. The other is where are your strikes going.

GO/AO

Hernandez 0.74, 10 HR

Tillman 0.82, 10 HR

Arrieta 1.14, 7 HR

Arrieta has more of a tendency to keep the ball on the ground and in the park. I think both Tillman and Hernandez need to work on that. It may be hard for them to work on it at Norfolk, which rewards fly ball pitchers and thus won't discourage them from continuing to rely on fly outs.

Would it be beneficial to move the fences in? Do the Orioles have any imput on the matter. You would think it would benefit not only the pitcher in developing them, but also our hitter would benefit also.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Remember that BB rate is only one component of command. The other is where are your strikes going.

GO/AO

Hernandez 0.74, 10 HR

Tillman 0.82, 10 HR

Arrieta 1.14, 7 HR

Arrieta has more of a tendency to keep the ball on the ground and in the park. I think both Tillman and Hernandez need to work on that. It may be hard for them to work on it at Norfolk, which rewards fly ball pitchers and thus won't discourage them from continuing to rely on fly outs.

I think GB:FB ratio is something very difficult to work on unless you're talking about the development of a specific pitch type. I'm not sure Hernandez or Tillman throw a 2-seam fastball to induce grounders.

I don't think you see a pitcher dramatically improve their GB% unless the pitcher has added a new pitch to their repertoire.

As for homeruns, they are strongly correlated with the number of homeruns given up, so naturally Hernandez is going to give up more homeruns. But if you look at the percentage of FBs that become HRs for each pitcher:

Arrieta - 6.5%

Tillman - 6.2%

Hernandez - 6%

I don't see a big issue here. And I don't think the ballpark would dissuade a pitcher from throwing ground balls. In fact, I don't really think a pitcher intentionally tries to throw ground balls. It depends on the pitch a pitcher throws. If a pitch is not designed to induce a ground ball, I'm not sure you can work on getting ground balls. You can work on keeping the ball down in the zone, but if there was an indication of Hernandez getting hit hard because he was leaving the ball up, it doesn't really show up in the numbers.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

I'd say my projection would be Matusz, Arrieta, Spoone, Erbe and one of Clark/Renshaw/Bascom.

Spoone is out most of the season. Like I said, I would expect Patton at Bowie to help him acclimate back.

When will Spoone be coming back from his injury? If he wasn't hurt and was able to perform would he be starting at Norfolk?

Spoone Has Surgery

Right-handed pitching prospect Chorye Spoone had surgery earlier this month to repair a slight Slap tear in his right shoulder and will likely miss a sizable part of the 2009 season. It's the latest blow to an organization that has lost several of its top young arms pitchers for extended periods because of serious injuries.

"It should be closer to midseason when he'll be ready to pitch in games," said David Stockstill, the Orioles director of player development. "We're very hopeful about his long-term [recovery]. There's been nothing said by the doctors or anybody else that we shouldn't be. We'll just let him go through rehab and the throwing program, and when he's ready to pitch in games, we'll put him in there."

So Spoone will be back by the All Star Game at the earliest.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Spoone is out most of the season. Like I said, I would expect Patton at Bowie to help him acclimate back.

Spoone Has Surgery

So Spoone will be back by the All Star Game at the earliest.

I doubt they move Patton back to Double-A. As for Spoone, he may be back by mid-season if all goes well. Without Spoone, this may give an opportunity to Bascom a bigger opportunity to move up despite a poor 2008.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

  • Posts

    • The Angels have a pretty good lineup. Just a combo of old and young. It’s actually a good thing that Trout hit the bomb and Hyde/Burnes didn’t have to deal with the No No.  This dude is a stud. Talk about the perfect dude to have around our young pitchers. Especially Grayson. 
    • Condolences to you and your family.  
    • My father passed away earlier this month. I am on spring break so yesterday I had to drive to the eastern Shore first to get an original copy of his will from his lawyer, then go to Worcester County court house and open the estate, then stop at his bank in Millsboro, DE to settle his accounts there and setup his estate account. Starting at 6am I made a loop from Baltimore-Ocean City-Snow Hill-Millsboro-Baltimore. I made it home just as Burnes was finishing the first inning.  My Dad loved baseball, it was one of those things that we could actually talk about in that completely stereotypical father-son way. Part of me wants to believe that one was for him. 
    • Yeah, no way that happens. They’re really bad. I’ll be surprised if they win 70. 
    • Comcast has been doing this with all the regional sports networks around the country. They know that live sports are the major drivers of subscriptions for bloated packages that most people don't consume in any meaningful way.  I share my MIL Xfinity login so I can stream from the MASN app. The app is certainly NOT the best, but any port in a storm. Hopefully new ownership means we can have a direct streaming option sooner than later.  I swear, make a deal with one of the local broadcast affiliates to put the game on one of the alternate areial channels. I know some people might be upset with reruns of the Rifleman being pre-empted during the summer but dang just do it.  All that said, I am old enough to remember the HTS days, when it was a "premium," channel so watching the Orioles on TV was a luxury that I did not have a lot growing up. The more things change... 
    • Good list. I think Gillies and Armbruester have a pretty decent chance, dependent on how they do this year of course. They might even make major league appearances this year, particularly Armbruester. I’d tier them above the rest of the “unlikely” group. 
  • Popular Contributors

×
×
  • Create New...