State of the System: Catcher - Grade A-

[Moose Milligan]

48 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Yea, no matter how the rest turn out, barring of course some kid's whose name I don't know turning into an all-star catcher, AR bombing will still be a big blow.

Even if we end up with a playoff team, losing out on an MVP candidate at catcher is still going to hurt.

Oh, so he's an MVP candidate?  Interesting.  What else is in your crystal ball?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Moose Milligan said:

Oh, so he's an MVP candidate?  Interesting.  What else is in your crystal ball?

That would be a logical projection for a consensus 1-1 position player. 

[Moose Milligan]

25 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

That would be a logical projection for a consensus 1-1 position player. 

I'll bet you a 6 pack of your favorite beer that AR is not an MVP candidate (top 3 finish) during his tenure as a Baltimore Oriole.  Feel free to check back in after the Yankees sign him.

[ScGO's]

10 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

The Diamondbacks have this guy Tim Locastro who is almost as fast as Billy Hamilton, can't really hit, but has managed to get himself HBP 27 times in 347 career PA.

In terms of Adley's ascent to All-Star teams and pushing the Orioles towards the top of that chart, Realmuto and Grandal kind of seem like the two daring anyone else to get by.   The grades do seem high in this series - I'm not sure if System means Farm only, or including the major league level.

It represents the whole system, top to bottom, plus the philosophy that goes into building each part of the system, including depth.

[ScGO's]

9 hours ago, Jagwar said:

Really appreciate your reports, keep them coming. 

That being said... I'm not sure that Adley and the Mehs warrant any grade that starts with an "A". The state of catchers in the system doesn't seem strong if it depends solely on one player.  

Agreed entirely, its just he's a really really good prospect.  The depth hurts, and I almost when B+, but the fact that we have 4 decent essentially MLB in catchers Sevy, Sisco, Wynns, and Holladay means we can be uber patient with Rudley IF necessary (hopefully one more season).  The A- grade is almost entirely driven by Adley though.

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, ScGO's said:

Agreed entirely, its just he's a really really good prospect.  The depth hurts, and I almost when B+, but the fact that we have 4 decent essentially MLB in catchers Sevy, Sisco, Wynns, and Holladay means we can be uber patient with Rudley IF necessary (hopefully one more season).  The A- grade is almost entirely driven by Adley though.

Holladay really isn't.  He doesn't have a MLB bat.  He only looks decent if you are comparing him to Davis.

[Frobby]

15 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

That would be a logical projection for a consensus 1-1 position player. 

Got me curious.   There have been 25 no. 1 picks who were position players.   Ten of them had at least one season where they finished top 5 in the MVP voting.   Seven of them won an MVP:

ARod 3/6

C. Jones 1/2

Griffey 1/5

Mauer 1/2

Gonzalez 0/1

Strawberry 0/2

Upton 0/1

Harper 1/1

Hamilton 1/2

Burroughs 1/1

Obviously you can debate how many of the 25 were “consensus,” and how many were on this list.   Also, you could go broader than Top 5 for who was an MVP candidate.   But just leaving this as it is, 10 out of 25 isn’t bad.

[Aristotelian]

I don't see how you can give the whole system an A- on the strength of one player who has yet to play an actual minor league season. We do have the top prospect in the game at that position but our actual MLB catchers are below average and we've don't have anyone after AR. I'd say more like B.

[Jagwar]

10 hours ago, ScGO's said:

Agreed entirely, its just he's a really really good prospect.  The depth hurts, and I almost when B+, but the fact that we have 4 decent essentially MLB in catchers Sevy, Sisco, Wynns, and Holladay means we can be uber patient with Rudley IF necessary (hopefully one more season).  The A- grade is almost entirely driven by Adley though.

I understand what you mean. Rutschman is a special talent and the grade should reflect that. 

I'm thinking it's like me having 5 cars. One of them is a brand new Ferrari, and the other 4 are economy cars my cousin built in his garage. The Ferrari is the envy of the town, but I'm not sure that the other 4 cars are even going to start when I turn the key. 

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 10/1/2020 at 9:11 AM, Moose Milligan said:

Where have YOU been, Phillpe?

https://blogs.fangraphs.com/2020-positional-power-rankings-catcher/

 

 

On 10/1/2020 at 10:37 AM, Moose Milligan said:

You said our catchers hit better than average.  That graph, along with Severino's sub-100 OPS+ and Sisco's slightly over 100 OPS+ should lead you to believe that our catchers, at best, hit average.  

There are three issues you have with this statement:

1) the chart you are citing is a pre-2020 season projection, not actuals

2) a chart of WAR would be both offense and defense, above average offense with bad defense could absolutely generate that result (ignoring that it's a projection)

3) 100 OPS+ is above average for a catcher, in 2020 average catcher OPS+ was 91, only surpassing 2B (88). In 2019, catcher OPS was 90 and trailed all other positions. So an OPS+ above 100 would be well above average for a catcher.

 

EDIT - Re: point #1, for reference on actual season results, O's catchers were tied for #10 in MLB for bWAR and tied for #25 in fWAR.

[DrungoHazewood]

6 hours ago, Jagwar said:

I understand what you mean. Rutschman is a special talent and the grade should reflect that. 

I'm thinking it's like me having 5 cars. One of them is a brand new Ferrari, and the other 4 are economy cars my cousin built in his garage. The Ferrari is the envy of the town, but I'm not sure that the other 4 cars are even going to start when I turn the key. 

I think we have a deposit down on a 2022 Ferrari.  Hopefully it all works out when it's finally delivered, but we ain't driving it yet.  The other four are 2018 Camry someone backed into a pole, a 2018 Skoda Yeti, a 2015 Nissan Versa, and a 2016 Mitsubishi Mirage with a primer colored  fender.  They'll probably get us to work, but we're not taking them to Cars and Coffee.