Vavra on move to CF

[owknows]

31 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

Road splits. .224 average. .636 OPS.   It doesn't matter how good your eye is if you don't hit.  He did manage a .320 OBP on the road.  A definite red flag.  Again, what worries me is that it wasn't just him.

2018 Minor League Ballpark Factors (if I'm reading the data correctly) suggests that Asheville was one of the top 5 parks in all of baseball on the offensive side in the entire minor leagues.   I might be nothing but I got a bad feeling on his one.

 

https://www.baseballamerica.com/stories/minor-league-park-factors-2019/

Yeah... I think I'd have an easier time with this if he hit for any appreciable power. He's not really a monster power guy. He hits for average and he walks. Not sure how ballpark helps him here.

I noted also that he seems to have the same trait at every level (and even in college)... High OBP across the board.

I'd tend to put more stock in his historical performance than I would in 170 road at bats in the Sally.

That said... there is an notable difference in his home/road splits. But it isn't attributable to the typical cause (short porch and power).

Is he seeing the ball better in Asheville?

Maybe home psychology in an unfamiliar league?

I dunno...  but I wouldn't be too concerned about it til I see it again. He's got too much history in the bank.

 

[Roll Tide]

2 hours ago, wildcard said:

I like Mullins vs right-handed pitching.  I think bunting and stealing are  good parts of his game.  I like Hays and his potential but he seems injury prone.   

Vavra's reputation is not being a very good defensive 2B.   I think Elias believes playing CF will improve his ability to make the major league.....with the O's or someone else.   Elias seems sensible about putting minor leaguers in spots that help them make the majors.   He did it with Mountcastle and now it sounds like he is doing it with Vavra.

Interesting .... Looking at the scouting report he has graded 50 Arm, field, & Speed. Seems like he'd have average tools out there at best.  Hayes had a 60 Arm, 55 Run, and 50 field.

 

[owknows]

8 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

.640 slugging at home.  .316 on the road.    I get what you're saying but his overall numbers are greatly helped by the numbers he put up at home and it did help his power which seemed minimal on the road but pretty darn good (24 doubles 8 homers in 200 AB's) at home.

He obviously hit better at home. (including home runs).  That much was conceded. But he hit better at home across the board. (and had a substantially higher number of walks). 

It wasn't just his power numbers. It was everything.

Therefore I think it's safe to conclude that the difference in home/road splits is not attributable to what is typically blamed for this... (power hitter with a short porch).

It would seem to have some other cause

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, RZNJ said:

.640 slugging at home.  .316 on the road.    I get what you're saying but his overall numbers are greatly helped by the numbers he put up at home and it did help his power which seemed minimal on the road but pretty darn good (24 doubles 8 homers in 200 AB's) at home.

There is no doubt that you have to question his stats.

At this point, I think you have to rely on scouting reports more than stats and then see how those reports translate to more neutral parks in 2021.

[HowAboutThat]

3 hours ago, wildcard said:

I like Mullins vs right-handed pitching.  I think bunting and stealing are  good parts of his game.  I like Hays and his potential but he seems injury prone.   

Vavra's reputation is not being a very good defensive 2B.   I think Elias believes playing CF will improve his ability to make the major league.....with the O's or someone else.   Elias seems sensible about putting minor leaguers in spots that help them make the majors.   He did it with Mountcastle and now it sounds like he is doing it with Vavra.

Although I appreciate the larger point, it’s pretty obvious that Mountcastle is not going to succeed anywhere except possibly first base. I hope that you are correct and that is where he ends up. It was infuriating to watch Trumbo lumbering  around right field like a kid lost at the mall.

[Can_of_corn]

41 minutes ago, Philip said:

Although I appreciate the larger point, it’s pretty obvious that Mountcastle is not going to succeed anywhere except possibly first base. I hope that you are correct and that is where he ends up. It was infuriating to watch Trumbo lumbering  around right field like a kid lost at the mall.

I think that says more about your definition of succeed than it does anything about Mountcastle.

[Moose Milligan]

50 minutes ago, Philip said:

Although I appreciate the larger point, it’s pretty obvious that Mountcastle is not going to succeed anywhere except possibly first base. I hope that you are correct and that is where he ends up. It was infuriating to watch Trumbo lumbering  around right field like a kid lost at the mall.

I think Mountcastle looked decent in LF last year and I was very vocal about his defensive shortcomings.  He's not a bad athlete.  I'm not sure why you think he's not going to succeed anywhere except first.

[Can_of_corn]

8 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

I think Mountcastle looked decent in LF last year and I was very vocal about his defensive shortcomings.  He's not a bad athlete.  I'm not sure why you think he's not going to succeed anywhere except first.

Because only gold glove level defense is acceptable.

[foxfield]

15 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Because only gold glove level defense is acceptable.

 

Is that so bad?  It propelled the Orioles to some fairly lofty heights in the 60's and 70's.

[Can_of_corn]

6 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

Is that so bad?  It propelled the Orioles to some fairly lofty heights in the 60's and 70's.

Yea that Boog Powell was a wizard with the glove. 

[ChosenOne21]

4 hours ago, Tony-OH said:

As my scouting report eluded, few think he can stick on the grass as an everyday player due to his defensive shortcoming, particularly the arm. If he can play center field affectively, his value goes up because the bat has the potential to play well.

If he doesn't have enough arm for 2B, how does he have enough arm for CF?

[Moose Milligan]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Yea that Boog Powell was a wizard with the glove. 

Might not have been the best to the left and right, but could he pick it?  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Moose Milligan said:

Might not have been the best to the left and right, but could he pick it?  

Don't recall seeing him play so I can't really say.  But he wasn't GG level since he didn't win any. 

[Sports Guy]

13 minutes ago, foxfield said:

 

Is that so bad?  It propelled the Orioles to some fairly lofty heights in the 60's and 70's.

Yes it is bad because it’s a lineup configuration that doesn’t have a basis in reality unless you are ok with garbage hitters.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Yes it is bad because it’s a lineup configuration that doesn’t have a basis in reality unless you are ok with garbage hitters.

Or really good players that are difficult to acquire and quickly get expensive.