Jose Iglesias traded to Angels.

[LookinUp]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

Well first of all, I don’t buy into either of these guys being able to be starters for the long term, especially Ben’s nephew.  Maybe Wells could but I think it’s unlikely.  
 

So, my evaluation of all of these guys is that they will be relievers and Pop has the best stuff and most upside of the group.  Plus, he’s a few years younger.

Yep, and for some reason the O's disagree. We won't know until we know.

All I know is there is some reason we didn't protect Pop and some reason we picked these two guys. Those reasons might be completely unrelated.

What's kind of clear to me is they didn't have a strategy of targeting 1 guy in particular. That's important because if the O's were targeting 1 guy in particular, it's possible they would have failed (e.g., he was taken before us). In that case, you might say that they took a gamble by not protecting Pop. But they left 2 spots open and drafted 2 guys. That means they felt that there was an available profile (or just a bunch of players) that they preferred to Pop. They decided the players available in rounds 1 AND 2 of the Rule V draft are more valuable than Pop.

So they don't like Pop anywhere near as much as you do. That's the conclusion I've come to.

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, LookinUp said:

Yep, and for some reason the O's disagree. We won't know until we know.

All I know is there is some reason we didn't protect Pop and some reason we picked these two guys. Those reasons might be completely unrelated.

What's kind of clear to me is they didn't have a strategy of targeting 1 guy in particular. That's important because if the O's were targeting 1 guy in particular, it's possible they would have failed (e.g., he was taken before us). In that case, you might say that they took a gamble by not protecting Pop. But they left 2 spots open and drafted 2 guys. That means they felt that there was an available profile (or just a bunch of players) that they preferred to Pop. They decided the players available in rounds 1 AND 2 of the Rule V draft are more valuable than Pop.

So they don't like Pop anywhere near as much as you do. That's the conclusion I've come to.

Glad to hear it.  I’m still allowed to have the opinion I do though.  

[LookinUp]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

Glad to hear it.  I’m still allowed to have the opinion I do though.  

Sure you are, but I actually think that thought process is important.

There's something about Pop that we didn't like, but we know at least one other team really did like him. I suspect they put him in the category of a replaceable dime a dozen middle reliever who's coming back from an injury and might not even stick on a ML roster for all of 2021. I doubt they hate him. I bet it's more like they just think it's a fair risk to take that we won't lose him for the year. If we do, not a huge loss. If we don't, we'll welcome him back with open arms.

Maybe he's not back to form yet? Seems unlikely given the timelines of his surgery, but with Covid who really knows? In any case, he's clearly not coveted by the front office for some reason. As I said in a post yesterday, I suspect it's because his advanced metrics don't fit the profile they want, and I'm fine with that.

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Sure you are, but I actually think that thought process is important.

There's something about Pop that we didn't like, but we know at least one other team really did like him. I suspect they put him in the category of a replaceable dime a dozen middle reliever who's coming back from an injury and might not even stick on a ML roster for all of 2021. I doubt they hate him. I bet it's more like they just think it's a fair risk to take that we won't lose him for the year. If we do, not a huge loss. If we don't, we'll welcome him back with open arms.

Maybe he's not back to form yet? Seems unlikely given the timelines of his surgery, but with Covid who really knows? In any case, he's clearly not coveted by the front office for some reason. As I said in a post yesterday, I suspect it's because his advanced metrics don't fit the profile they want, and I'm fine with that.

I think the process is pretty simple..the Os gambled that Pop wouldn’t be selected after not pitching for a long time and coming off TJ surgery and they ended up being proved wrong.

And we should all have a problem if they feel every pitcher has to fit into a certain mold, so I hate that thought.

[LookinUp]

Here's another way to look at this. Luke wrote this prospect report in 2019. 
https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/19/orioles-23-prospect-zach-pop-rhp/

It reads like everything you (and I) like. 

But look at the actual thread OP. His grades are 30 (present value), 40 (future value, middle relief), 45 (ceiling, setup). Even with a nice, bullish write-up, he was a 40-45 guy. 

Now I like those guys. I want a lot of them too and I'm sure I would prefer to have that profile to someone else on our 40 man roster. But that write-up was before surgery, so you have to throw in that unknown. 

 

[Sports Guy]

7 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Here's another way to look at this. Luke wrote this prospect report in 2019. 
https://www.orioleshangout.com/2019/11/19/orioles-23-prospect-zach-pop-rhp/

It reads like everything you (and I) like. 

But look at the actual thread OP. His grades are 30 (present value), 40 (future value, middle relief), 45 (ceiling, setup). Even with a nice, bullish write-up, he was a 40-45 guy. 

Now I like those guys. I want a lot of them too and I'm sure I would prefer to have that profile to someone else on our 40 man roster. But that write-up was before surgery, so you have to throw in that unknown. 

 

Yea, this has zero impact on me.  First of all, it’s the opinion of one person.   No one person has infallible positions on anything.  That’s nothing against Luke whatsoever, I enjoyed his stuff a lot and had a lot of Twitter exchanges with him.  Just simply saying that pointing to one scouting report doesn’t carry a ton of weight. Now, that being said, I always got the impression that Pop was a guy that wasn’t likely to be one of your top 3 BP arms. But if he could be your 4th or 5th arm making no money, that’s valuable.  I also think his upside is to be one of those top 3 arms but he’s not near that upside yet.  In that regards, I probably agree with Luke’s assessment of him.  But I like the ceiling of him as well. (Not sure what Luke thought of his ceiling)

Secondly, we have several guys on the roster that just aren’t good or aren’t any part of a future contending team that we could easily drop before Pop.

Lastly, the guys we acquired aren’t anything special.  Ben’s nephew didn’t even pitch that great in A ball, when he was old for the league.  That matters..A LOT.  

 

 

[LookinUp]

2 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Yea, this has zero impact on me.  First of all, it’s the opinion of one person.   No one person has infallible positions on anything.  That’s nothing against Luke whatsoever, I enjoyed his stuff a lot and had a lot of Twitter exchanges with him.  Just simply saying that pointing to one scouting report doesn’t carry a ton of weight. Now, that being said, I always got the impression that Pop was a guy that wasn’t likely to be one of your top 3 BP arms. But if he could be your 4th or 5th arm making no money, that’s valuable.  I also think his upside is to be one of those top 3 arms but he’s not near that upside yet.  In that regards, I probably agree with Luke’s assessment of him.  But I like the ceiling of him as well. (Not sure what Luke thought of his ceiling)

Secondly, we have several guys on the roster that just aren’t good or aren’t any part of a future contending team that we could easily drop before Pop.

Lastly, the guys we acquired aren’t anything special.  Ben’s nephew didn’t even pitch that great in A ball, when he was old for the league.  That matters..A LOT.  

Well I agree that I doubt the guys we picked up fit a profile as special. If they did, they wouldn't likely be available in the Rule V draft.

I really agree with your whole post, so it brings me back to the idea that the O's took that risk on Pop for a reason. 

[Sports Guy]

4 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

Well I agree that I doubt the guys we picked up fit a profile as special. If they did, they wouldn't likely be available in the Rule V draft.

I really agree with your whole post, so it brings me back to the idea that the O's took that risk on Pop for a reason. 

Like most prospects, Pop is unlikely to amount to anything in the majors.  These moves, whether you like them or hate them, will likely have very little future impact on anything. 
 

The issue is if Pop ends up being an above average or better reliever in the majors and none of the rule 5 guys amount to anything.  
 

But to be honest, my bigger issue with this is that you kept the guys like Sulser, Valdez and Lakins on the 40 man over Pop.  Those guys are nothing.  You can literally pick them up for free whenever you want (which is what they did).  
 

There is no argument to keep them over Pop.  Even if you hate Pop as a prospect, you still take his age and stuff over those guys.

[Frobby]

7 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

I think the process is pretty simple..the Os gambled that Pop wouldn’t be selected after not pitching for a long time and coming off TJ surgery and they ended up being proved wrong.

And we should all have a problem if they feel every pitcher has to fit into a certain mold, so I hate that thought.

Something like 5 of the top 7 guys picked were pitchers coming off TJ surgery.    That was interesting.

As to preferring pitchers of a certain type, I don’t mind it, so long as you can find enough quality candidates of that type.   

[weams]

19 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

But I think ownership said cut more costs somewhere.

I am not smart enough to know what Mike Elias may think or want to do. I suspect ownership shared the dire financial circumstances with him. It appears Mike may have chosen to keep his dream team together forgoing additional wins in a partial season. 

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Something like 5 of the top 7 guys picked were pitchers coming off TJ surgery.    That was interesting.

As to preferring pitchers of a certain type, I don’t mind it, so long as you can find enough quality candidates of that type.   

I don’t see how you be ok with that.  It makes zero sense.  Not every pitcher fits a certain mold.  Some are successful with lesser stuff.  Some can be small in stature but also still great.  Some may have a crappy CB and a poor spin rate but has outside control and command of other pitches and are successes.

Its one thing to say I desire a certain type.  That’s fair.  But results matter.  If you start getting rid of guys because they don’t conform to your ideals, you likely miss out on a lot of talent.

Bill Belicheck is a great coach because he adapts year to year and game to game.  One week his team runs the  ball, the next week they throw it.  Whatever the team is weakest at, he exploits it.  Whatever they are good at, he focuses on it and tries to stop it.  He doesn’t say, my team does this well, so we either win or lose this way.  Most coaches don’t do that.  It’s their way or the highway.  BB says, F that, I will adapt.  It’s the same principle here.  

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t see how you be ok with that.  It makes zero sense.  Not every pitcher fits a certain mold.  Some are successful with lesser stuff.  Some can be small in stature but also still great.  Some may have a crappy CB and a poor spin rate but has outside control and command of other pitches and are successes.

Its one thing to say I desire a certain type.  That’s fair.  But results matter.  If you start getting rid of guys because they don’t conform to your ideals, you likely miss out on a lot of talent.

Bill Belicheck is a great coach because he adapts year to year and game to game.  One week his team runs the  ball, the next week they throw it.  Whatever the team is weakest at, he exploits it.  Whatever they are good at, he focuses on it and tries to stop it.  He doesn’t say, my team does this well, so we either win or lose this way.  Most coaches don’t do that.  It’s their way or the highway.  BB says, F that, I will adapt.  It’s the same principle here.  

It reminds me of when Dan overvalued ground ball pitchers.

[orioles22]

As a fan since 1971, it seems kind of hopeless if we can't afford a contract like the one Iglesias had. I am incredibly tired of hearing about money. I had accepted we were rebuilding, but this looks like it was about money. Sell the team to someone who can afford to compete.

[LookinUp]

On 12/11/2020 at 6:05 PM, Sports Guy said:

Its one thing to say I desire a certain type.  That’s fair.  But results matter.  If you start getting rid of guys because they don’t conform to your ideals, you likely miss out on a lot of talent.

You're talking about Minor League performance though. The competition gets significantly as you go from AA to the AL East. If you hitch your wagon to a bunch of Alex Wells types, your overall success rate will be lower.

That's the point of the metrics. Of course they don't want to miss out on atypical success types but, over large samples, they want to hit on the highest percent as possible. The analytics drives us in that direction. You just hope you can find the edge cases too.

[Roll Tide]

On 12/11/2020 at 6:08 PM, Can_of_corn said:

It reminds me of when Dan overvalued ground ball pitchers.

I think there is value in avoiding guys that are wild and erratic.