White Sox looking for a LH OFer

[Frobby]

53 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

If you told me I could get a 22 year old Santander with more control and less salary for a 26 y/o Santander with an injury history, I make that deal all day long.

But more than this, anytime you make a trade for prospects, it’s always a risk on whether those players pan out as good as the player you trade.  That’s the nature of the deal.

Bur you make your evaluations on both sides and if you like the players you get, you make the move.

What’s your guess about how much WAR Santander will produce in the next four years?    For purposes of my question, assume we play all 162 games this year and next.    

I’d guess in that window he’s a 6-10 WAR player.

The average team graduates approximately 1.5 players per year who will exceed 6 WAR.   How many of those were ranked in the 6-12 range?    Hard to say, but I’d say most were not.   So, I’d be a bit disinclined to trade Santander for that type of return.   
 

[Sports Guy]

8 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What’s your guess about how much WAR Santander will produce in the next four years?    For purposes of my question, assume we play all 162 games this year and next.    

I’d guess in that window he’s a 6-10 WAR player.

The average team graduates approximately 1.5 players per year who will exceed 6 WAR.   How many of those were ranked in the 6-12 range?    Hard to say, but I’d say most were not.   So, I’d be a bit disinclined to trade Santander for that type of return.   
 

I don’t think he will be here for 4 years but if he was, I think your estimate is fair and logical.  That equates to a 1.5-2.5 WAR player a year.  Soon he will be making in that 6-15M a year range in his arb raises and FA years.  No way am I paying that money for that production.

On top of that, you have the younger COer coming up. 

[Roll Tide]

27 minutes ago, Frobby said:

What’s your guess about how much WAR Santander will produce in the next four years?    For purposes of my question, assume we play all 162 games this year and next.    

I’d guess in that window he’s a 6-10 WAR player.

The average team graduates approximately 1.5 players per year who will exceed 6 WAR.   How many of those were ranked in the 6-12 range?    Hard to say, but I’d say most were not.   So, I’d be a bit disinclined to trade Santander for that type of return.   
 

I'm guessing 8 .....But I could easily see something like  10-12

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

It should be obvious that any trade of a player like this that we discuss is always predicated on the return.  Just because you think his value is more to us than the rest of the league doesn’t make it so.  Just as my opinion of it doesn’t matter either.

 

I’m not sure what we’re arguing about. If the return is good, then of course we trade him. If the return is not good, then of course we don’t. I think at most, you and I are disagreeing on what would constitute a good return. And we can’t even discuss that until a trade is made. I would Much rather find a taker for Stewart, because it would be difficult to replace our best outfielder if he is traded.

[HowAboutThat]

1 hour ago, Sports Guy said:

I don’t think he will be here for 4 years but if he was, I think your estimate is fair and logical.  That equates to a 1.5-2.5 WAR player a year.  Soon he will be making in that 6-15M a year range in his arb raises and FA years.  No way am I paying that money for that production.

On top of that, you have the younger COer coming up. 

If he continues to improve and produce, trade him after his second year of arbitration. That’s when his value is maximized.If he continues to improve and produce, trade him after his second year of arbitration. That’s when his value is maximized.

[Roll Tide]

13 minutes ago, Philip said:

I’m not sure what we’re arguing about. If the return is good, then of course we trade him. If the return is not good, then of course we don’t. I think at most, you and I are disagreeing on what would constitute a good return. And we can’t even discuss that until a trade is made. I would Much rather find a taker for Stewart, because it would be difficult to replace our best outfielder if he is traded.

I would trade him today for 3  of the White Sox top 20!    Steiver/Kelly, Flores JR, and Yolbert Sanchez. If I could send a 2nd guy as filler and get Burger I'd do that also.

 

 

[hoosiers]

21 minutes ago, Philip said:

If he continues to improve and produce, trade him after his second year of arbitration. That’s when his value is maximized.If he continues to improve and produce, trade him after his second year of arbitration. That’s when his value is maximized.

No, after second year of arb, the salary gets closer to market value.  A player's max trading value is earlier in the pre-FA process when production of a 1-2 war player far exceeds the cost.

[NCRaven]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

What’s your guess about how much WAR Santander will produce in the next four years?    For purposes of my question, assume we play all 162 games this year and next.    

 

If we extend him for 7 years and $150 million, he will immediately go in the tank and produce -55 WAR.  History repeats itself.

[oriole]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Perhaps...but Santander works for a lot of teams.

I mean with the White Sox since this thread seems primarily focused on them. Santander could be traded anywhere for all I care. But I expect whoever is coming back to have a higher ceiling and more control than Santander. I still don’t believe anyone would be interested in giving that up after one good year. 

[HowAboutThat]

2 hours ago, hoosiers said:

No, after second year of arb, the salary gets closer to market value.  A player's max trading value is earlier in the pre-FA process when production of a 1-2 war player far exceeds the cost.

Well, I don’t know where is the exact divider is between maximum value to the old team and maximum value to the new team, But I’m sure it changes from player to player, and whatever that point is, that’s when they should trade send tender, or anyone, for that matter. 
@Roll Tide I don’t know whether your suggestion was serious or in jest, but anybody who offered me three players from their top 20, I’d look at that long and hard.

But I’m pretty sure the White Sox wouldn’t go for that. Unless it’s on a Monday after a long hard weekend of heavy drinking.

Edited December 8, 2020 by Philip

[Frobby]

4 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

See I think you can get that.  You aren’t likely to get a top guy but if you can get 2 guys in the 6-12 range, especially in a deep system, that’s a good return imo.

I wouldn’t trade him for those types of prospects in a poor system though.

OK, so our system is now considered pretty good and pretty deep.    Our 6-12 (per Tony):  Hall, Baumann, Westburg, Kremer, Akin, Lowther, Diaz.   If we didn’t have them already, would you trade Santander for two of those?   (Note: I think most other rankings have Hall in the top 5.)

[LookinUp]

3 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Perhaps...but Santander works for a lot of teams.

I think who he works for and who actually comes with an offer like you would accept, right now, is not the same. I tend to agree that he has the capability to be a piece that people want down the stretch. If he proves that in the first half of 2021, I think we get much better offers.

I also think that us not trading Santander does not mean that we're not willing to trade him. I think it's a large bridge to assume those offers are coming in.

[Roll Tide]

25 minutes ago, Philip said:

Well, I don’t know where is the exact divider is between maximum value to the old team and maximum value to the new team, But I’m sure it changes from player to player, and whatever that point is, that’s when they should trade send tender, or anyone, for that matter. 
@Roll Tide I don’t know whether your suggestion was serious or ingest, but anybody who offered me three players from their top 20, I’d look at that long and hard.

But I’m pretty sure the White Sox wouldn’t go for that. Unless it’s on a Monday after a long hard weekend of heavy drinking.

Well ... The players I proposed were 6, 16 , and 18. Even Honestly Sanchez is nothing more than a lottery ticket. Played 3 years in Cuba (.650, 750, 650 OPS) amd 2019 in the DSL at +.800 ish in 111 ABS. Flores has a low ceiling due to his best pitch being a 55 rated change. So the real get us Steiver or Kelly. If you think Santander has arrived you make the deal if your Chicago

[scOtt]

I have posted before, We have a glut of decent to good OFers right now. Enough to push our roster to the limits on getting them all enough ABs and playing time. SOMEbody needs to get traded. Santander is at the top of my list. Kind of superfluous to US... but somebody who has shown could really help another team out.

WE could afford to lose him for one GOOD prospect in return.

 

 

Or we could just cut Chris Davis... but that ain't happ'nin'...

[Sports Guy]

2 hours ago, Philip said:

If he continues to improve and produce, trade him after his second year of arbitration. That’s when his value is maximized.If he continues to improve and produce, trade him after his second year of arbitration. That’s when his value is maximized.

His value isn’t maximized when he only has one year left of service time.