Darvish Trade: Orioles Equivalent

[BohKnowsBmore]

On 12/30/2020 at 8:36 AM, Frobby said:

Davies has a five year track record as a very solid 3/4 starter.    3.79 ERA, 9.7 rWAR.   Means is 2-3 months younger but has been a major leaguer for three fewer seasons than Davies.   I think it’s very fair to say Davies is the more established pitcher and has the higher floor of the two.    Means is less experienced and had his ups and downs last year, but may have more upside than Davies.    If you ignored their salaries/service time, I’d be hard pressed to say which one I’d prefer to have going forward.   But obviously the salary and service time issues loom large  here.  

Yea. That’s a legit argument. Was just weird imo to cite stats that Means is actually better in and say the effect of “well I guess Means is the closest thing we have.”

[Ridgway22]

1 hour ago, BohKnowsBmore said:

Yea. That’s a legit argument. Was just weird imo to cite stats that Means is actually better in and say the effect of “well I guess Means is the closest thing we have.”

The point of the post was the equivalency of the package, this is what we'd be looking at debating in the next couple of years, ie when Houston took on Verlander // Grienke, not to extract, isolate and attack the Davies vs. Means / other component... If the O's were on the cusp, like the Padres are, this is the package we'd be looking to give up.  Would we be okay with it? In the context of the trade, who would be more equivalent to Means // Davies? Cobb? Kremer? Zimmerman? And that is only one component, the prospects are the true currency. For the next 3 years, what is the actual delta between Davies and Means? Is that more or less compensated by the package of prospects and / or the included catcher? 

[BohKnowsBmore]

7 hours ago, Ridgway22 said:

The point of the post was the equivalency of the package, this is what we'd be looking at debating in the next couple of years, ie when Houston took on Verlander // Grienke, not to extract, isolate and attack the Davies vs. Means / other component... If the O's were on the cusp, like the Padres are, this is the package we'd be looking to give up.  Would we be okay with it? In the context of the trade, who would be more equivalent to Means // Davies? Cobb? Kremer? Zimmerman? And that is only one component, the prospects are the true currency. For the next 3 years, what is the actual delta between Davies and Means? Is that more or less compensated by the package of prospects and / or the included catcher? 

When you consider service time / contract they’re even less (far less) comparable as trade pieces 

[drjohnnyfeva]

On 12/29/2020 at 10:39 PM, ThomasTomasz said:

Darvish is an oft-injured pitcher who is 34, and has $60 million left on his contract.  This is a salary dump with some lottery tickets added for the Cubs.  

I think this is accurate.  Hopefully the day of overpaid oft-injured pitchers is a thing of the past, especially for us.  I was so happy when the BoSux signed David Price.  Crippled them to go after other players that could play important bit roles and even starting roles if injuries occurred.  Yu Darivsh, Price, Clayton Kershaw and others will help to get you to the Playoffs IF they remain healthy, but will let you down in the end - as all of them have demonstrated.  Even Verlander, Scherzer, and Smiley in the years when we were Playoff/WS contenders, 2011-2015 couldn't manage completely healthy seasons OR a WS Championship.  So other teams can continue to pay guys crazy money to starters that simply don't pay off...  Who thinks the short season helped Clayton Kershaw this year?  Hand raised here...  Another 30-40 games and Kershaw's arm would have been a noodle again.

As a move to take a guy like these on a salary dump who could, might, maybe be nursed thru a year or two to help an already great club win, it could be a smart move.  I don't know the value of the prospects SD gave up, but I would not really be inclined to give up much and I think a lottery ticket or two analogy is about right.  Arms are made of glass and so are the personalities that possess those arms.  Pitchers are the WR's of baseball... maybe that's a bit too far, but you get my drift.

[Mr. Chewbacca Jr.]

23 hours ago, drjohnnyfeva said:

I think this is accurate.  Hopefully the day of overpaid oft-injured pitchers is a thing of the past, especially for us.  I was so happy when the BoSux signed David Price.  Crippled them to go after other players that could play important bit roles and even starting roles if injuries occurred.  Yu Darivsh, Price, Clayton Kershaw and others will help to get you to the Playoffs IF they remain healthy, but will let you down in the end - as all of them have demonstrated.  Even Verlander, Scherzer, and Smiley in the years when we were Playoff/WS contenders, 2011-2015 couldn't manage completely healthy seasons OR a WS Championship.  So other teams can continue to pay guys crazy money to starters that simply don't pay off...  Who thinks the short season helped Clayton Kershaw this year?  Hand raised here...  Another 30-40 games and Kershaw's arm would have been a noodle again.

As a move to take a guy like these on a salary dump who could, might, maybe be nursed thru a year or two to help an already great club win, it could be a smart move.  I don't know the value of the prospects SD gave up, but I would not really be inclined to give up much and I think a lottery ticket or two analogy is about right.  Arms are made of glass and so are the personalities that possess those arms.  Pitchers are the WR's of baseball... maybe that's a bit too far, but you get my drift.

Idk man - Price, Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer all have rings and they were all huge contributors to their teams. I think those deals paid off. 

Price's record in the WS was 2-0, 1.98 ERA, .951 WHIP. 

Kershaw had a record of 2-0, 2.31 ERA, .857 WHIP in this year's WS - and if you take out his bad game from the 2018 WS where the Astros were stealing signs, his overall WS record is very good.

Scherzer was 1-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.90 WHIP in the 2019 WS. Dueled Greinke in a crazy Game 7 and was absolutely lights out for the WC/NLDS/NLCS.

Verlander's record isn't as shiny, but pitched very well in the 2017 WS, was the MVP for the 2017 ALCS with a 2-0, .56 ERA, .750 WHIP record. 

Sure, the contracts are risky. Somebody can blow their arm up at anytime. But having really good pitchers helps win championships. You gotta play to win.

 

[drjohnnyfeva]

15 hours ago, Mr. Chewbacca Jr. said:

Idk man - Price, Kershaw, Verlander, Scherzer all have rings and they were all huge contributors to their teams. I think those deals paid off. 

Price's record in the WS was 2-0, 1.98 ERA, .951 WHIP. 

Kershaw had a record of 2-0, 2.31 ERA, .857 WHIP in this year's WS - and if you take out his bad game from the 2018 WS where the Astros were stealing signs, his overall WS record is very good.

Scherzer was 1-0, 3.60 ERA, 1.90 WHIP in the 2019 WS. Dueled Greinke in a crazy Game 7 and was absolutely lights out for the WC/NLDS/NLCS.

Verlander's record isn't as shiny, but pitched very well in the 2017 WS, was the MVP for the 2017 ALCS with a 2-0, .56 ERA, .750 WHIP record. 

Sure, the contracts are risky. Somebody can blow their arm up at anytime. But having really good pitchers helps win championships. You gotta play to win.

 

Well, you're not wrong, Chewy.   But you sort of show my point with your numbers... Each one of these guys has exactly one ring.  That's a huge money commitment from a team for one ring.  And if you look at the teams they won with, except maybe the Astros, despite injuries with all of them for parts of seasons, were with large market teams.  Verlander's WS win came after being traded.  So that could be seen as a Darvish-type salary dump...  Scherzer, Price, Kershaw are each 200M players - Price 7yr/197M, Scherzer 7yr/210M, and Kershaw 3yr/93M (ext. 2018).  Price would have had two if he hadn't opted out this year.  But for me, this season will always be asterisked.    

It will be interesting to see if the Steven Strasburg and Patrick Corbin deals pay off.  The Nats have devoted a whopping 75M to SP this year (Scherzer/Stras/Corbin) anything short of winning a WS with that kind of money devoted to 3 pitchers would be a failure, imo.  I'm not against acquiring a salary-dump contract for a year or two.  I just don't think the value of these contracts are ever truly realized.