Cobb to Angels

[scOtt]

12 hours ago, Philip said:

Me too. After I posted my comment I saw he got seven at bats last season and three hits. It’s almost a 500 batting average. I’ll take that every day of the week.

I hope his defense is acceptable.

I know your first part is a joke. I was looking at his defensive numbers. He made a lot of errors since he shifted to 2B (I know E's aren't the end all...) I chalk it up to growing pains/learning experience. His Range Factor is more than double at 2B than all of the OF positions tho. (And he could still be a viable option for emergency CFer.)

I don't know RF and esp. at 2B. Is 4.5-ish good? Great? Meh?

[scOtt]

11 hours ago, NCRaven said:

Oh, and posters on the AnglesWin.com fan forum would be very comfortable posting on the Orioles.  This is not a popular move in Lala land.

Someone actually posted "but what is his spin rate?"  I laughed out loud.

Playing 2B... I hope it's very low!

[sportsfan8703]

Elias has done a great job at building the quality of our infield prospects. We have a slew of OF prospects and young OF on the current roster. We have the best C prospect in the game.

Elias has another draft with a high draft pick. It will interesting to see if he goes position player heavy again at the top of the draft. 

This may be too optimistic, but this eases “some” of my stress about Elias passing on Austin Martin. 

[sportsfan8703]

Deleted

Edited February 2, 2021 by sportsfan8703
Double post

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, scOtt said:

I know your first part is a joke. I was looking at his defensive numbers. He made a lot of errors since he shifted to 2B (I know E's aren't the end all...) I chalk it up to growing pains/learning experience. His Range Factor is more than double at 2B than all of the OF positions tho. (And he could still be a viable option for emergency CFer.)

I don't know RF and esp. at 2B. Is 4.5-ish good? Great? Meh?

So, range factor is nothing more than total chances per 9 innings or total chances per game.   It’s a very flawed stat because it says nothing about how many opportunities you actually had.   For example, a fielder playing behind a high strikeout pitcher is going to have fewer chances than a fielder playing behind a low strikeout pitcher.    Whether the opposing lineup is predominantly left-handed or right-handed, and how much foul territory there is at the ballpark, and the size of the outfield all impact range factor.   

Saying that, here was last year’s major league average at the various positions (all per 9 innings):

1B 8.17

2B 4.01

3B 2.57

SS 3.78

LF 1.80

CF 2.53

RF 2.07

[wildcard]

26 minutes ago, Frobby said:

So, range factor is nothing more than total chances per 9 innings or total chances per game.   It’s a very flawed stat because it says nothing about how many opportunities you actually had.   For example, a fielder playing behind a high strikeout pitcher is going to have fewer chances than a fielder playing behind a high strikeout pitcher.    Whether the opposing lineup is predominantly left-handed or right-handed, and how much foul territory there is at the ballpark, and the size of the outfield all impact range factor.   

Saying that, here was last year’s major league average at the various positions (all per 9 innings):

1B 8.17

2B 4.01

3B 2.57

SS 3.78

LF 1.80

CF 2.53

RF 2.07

I think a fielder playing behind a high strikeout pitcher is going to have about the same number of chances as a fielder  playing behind a high strikeout .

[Frobby]

8 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think a fielder playing behind a high strikeout pitcher is gone to have about the same number of chances as a fielder  playing behind a high strikeout .

Oops.  Thanks for catching that, I’ve fixed it.   

[Sports Guy]

We still don’t know how much the team saved on this deal but it should allow them to spend some money on one starter and a guy like Franco for third base.

 

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

We still don’t know how much the team saved on this deal but it should allow them to spend some money on one starter and a guy like Franco for third base.

 

I think you will be disappointed.    They probably spend no more than they did for LeBlanc and Milone last year and probably don't offer Franco any more than 1.5m like they did with Galvis.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

You don’t seriously think he’s a 5-7 WAR player, right?   If he produced 3 WAR I’d be really happy.  

Santander's +8 fielding runs in RF is the 4th-highest total in modern Orioles history.  In 37 games. Probably not something we can count on going forward.

[wildcard]

11 hours ago, Frobby said:

You don’t seriously think he’s a 5-7 WAR player, right?   If he produced 3 WAR I’d be really happy.  

Santander has to figure out how to stay healthy to put up the higher WAR.

[Sports Guy]

18 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I think you will be disappointed.    They probably spend no more than they did for LeBlanc and Milone last year and probably don't offer Franco any more than 1.5m like they did with Galvis.

Well, I can’t say I would disappointed if they don’t sign bad players.  My disappointment is more that they are willfully employing bad players.

That being said, I would be more than happy if the OD rotation was Means, Kremer, Akin, Baumann and Zimmerman.  Part of me says, just go with that and forget adding anyone but I do think adding someone who can eat innings for at least 3 months would be valuable to the team, even if those innings were mediocre.

I only really want Franco to upgrade the defense.  If they can get a different third baseman who is better than Ruiz (not hard to do), I’m good with that.

[Frobby]

11 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Santander has to figure out how to stay healthy to put up the higher WAR.

I don’t believe anyone with a .261 BA/.315 OBP is going to put up anything close to a 5-7 WAR season.    I’m glad he played well for 37 games but he is not going to post 5-7 WAR even if he plays all 162 this year.    His high WAR total last year was largely the result of being ranked +8 runs in the field in that time by the fielding metric that happens to feed rWAR.  That would equate to +32 over a full season.  Never going to happen.  Classic example of a misleading result in a very small sample size.   Meanwhile Fangraphs had him at +4.3 UZR/150 and 0.9 fWAR.   Statcast had him at +1 outs above average. 

The other thing you need to ask yourself: is Santander going to come anywhere close to posting a .314 ISO over 162 games?    My answer is, no way.    

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t believe anyone with a .261 BA/.315 OBP is going to put up anything close to a 5-7 WAR season.    I’m glad he played well for 37 games but he is not going to post 5-7 WAR even if he plays all 162 this year.    His high WAR total last year was largely the result of being ranked +8 runs in the field in that time by the fielding metric that happens to feed rWAR.  That would equate to +32 over a full season.  Never going to happen.  Classic example of a misleading result in a very small sample size.   Meanwhile Fangraphs had him at +4.3 UZR/150 and 0.9 fWAR.   Statcast had him at +1 outs above average. 

The other thing you need to ask yourself: is Santander going to come anywhere close to posting a .314 ISO over 162 games?    My answer is, no way.    

Not in right field.

Could see it for a plus shortstop or catcher.

[BohKnowsBmore]

38 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t believe anyone with a .261 BA/.315 OBP is going to put up anything close to a 5-7 WAR season.    I’m glad he played well for 37 games but he is not going to post 5-7 WAR even if he plays all 162 this year.    His high WAR total last year was largely the result of being ranked +8 runs in the field in that time by the fielding metric that happens to feed rWAR.  That would equate to +32 over a full season.  Never going to happen.  Classic example of a misleading result in a very small sample size.   Meanwhile Fangraphs had him at +4.3 UZR/150 and 0.9 fWAR.   Statcast had him at +1 outs above average. 

The other thing you need to ask yourself: is Santander going to come anywhere close to posting a .314 ISO over 162 games?    My answer is, no way.    

 

34 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Not in right field.

Could see it for a plus shortstop or catcher.

JJ Hardy, as one example, had his best Orioles season by bWAR (4.1) and fWAR (4.5) in 2011. He played in only 129 games and slashed .269/.310/.491. That is in the lower end of the stated 5 - 7 win range if you extend to a full season.