Orioles & Stadium Authority agree on TWO year extension of OPACY lease

[baloriole4]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Marlins new ballpark was approved in February 2008. 

And the market and economy didn't tank until the summer of 2008 (either August or September 2008), so if Marlins Park was approved in February 2008 as you mention, that was before that economic downturn

[Can_of_corn]

4 hours ago, baloriole4 said:

And the market and economy didn't tank until the summer of 2008 (either August or September 2008), so if Marlins Park was approved in February 2008 as you mention, that was before that economic downturn

https://www.thebalance.com/2007-financial-crisis-overview-3306138

The writing was on the wall in 2007.  Also in January 2008 the economy lost 17,000 jobs. 

[wildcard]

The O's probably want improvement to the Yard and the MSA is not in a position with the economy being what it is to commit to those improvements.   Kicking the can down the street two years hopefully gets passed the Pandemic.

Its doesn't have to be O's that want the delay.   

[VaBird1]

26 minutes ago, wildcard said:

The O's probably want improvement to the Yard and the MSA is not in a position with the economy being what it is to commit to those improvements.   Kicking the can down the street two years hopefully gets passed the Pandemic.

Its doesn't have to be O's that want the delay.   

The stadium is the best part of an Orioles game since 2016.

[DrungoHazewood]

11 hours ago, eddie83 said:

Going to be difficult for any city to justify building a brand new ballpark in these economic times. 

 

11 hours ago, eddie83 said:

True. That said I find it hard to fathom a city building a new stadium with the current economic landscape.  

I find it hard to believe that anyone is in favor of increasing taxes so that they can hand billionaires free places to do business.  I guess that's why most of the plans are structured around things like tourism taxes and lotteries, not straight up tax increases. 

But Corn is right, economic sense is almost never the determining factor here.  It's running enough ballot initiatives with enough hand-waiving until one finally gets 50.1% of the vote.

9 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

You can follow the AAA Orioles.  Maybe they will be the Nat's affiliate?

Exactly what I was thinking.  That would be the ultimate Lerner revenge for MASN, wouldn't it?  Probably been a while since a team's affiliate had a nicer ballpark than their parent organization.

I'm pretty sure I'd never go to OPACY to watch someone else's affiliate.  I would if they got an Atlantic League team.  It would be fun to have 10 times the revenues of everyone else in the league for once.

[LookitsPuck]

I don't think the Orioles relocating is realistic. At all. All of these problems: MASN, the pandemic, losing seasons are all leading people to worry that a relocation happens. That's understandable from a psychological standpoint, but it doesn't pass any form of the logical test.

First and foremost, every single franchise is facing some sort of economic hardship because of the pandemic. Put quite frankly, losing turnstile revenue (which includes: ticket sales, food, merchandise, parking) is a major hit. The fact that we're in 2021 and this pandemic is still raging and we're lagging as all get-out (Maryland is #44 out of 50 states, which is an embarrassment), means there's going to be more economic hardship for these ballclubs. Season ticket sales are now at a much larger standstill in back to back years, after already being hit hard because season ticket purchasers don't want to see a losing team.

So, my point in all of this: this is an issue everywhere. Clubs are finding ways to cut costs. Some of them have been more exorbitant in spending, and those are most likely teams that are *winning*. But small and mid-market teams? Not so much. And I don't anticipate this to get any better, any time soon. Certainly not until we start seeing stadiums open up for 75%+ capacity. To that end, why on Earth would *any* ballclub lock in much longer extension than 2 years? 2 years gives a club time to evaluate the economic landscape due to pandemic. It doesn't mean that they're using these 2 years to eventually setup a relocation package.

Nashville isn't a particular exciting place for a ball club. They have a slightly larger population than Baltimore, but they don't have nearly the same metro population as Baltimore does. And the other thing: a ball club that relocates in the middle of losing seasons, under new management, during a pandemic is going to hemorrhage fans. There's no ifs, ands or buts around it. You can kiss a significant portion of the Baltimore Orioles fanbase goodbye. And they're also contending against other metro areas: Braves, Cardinals, White Sox, Reds, Indians, etc. You think contending with the Nationals is bad, just wait until you end up dealing with the south and the midwest. That is not a particularly sexy place or circumstance to deal with. At all.

Furthermore, clubs don't relocate in MLB. They just build new stadiums or rename themselves (minor). This isn't the NFL where it's a common occurrence. 

To me, it's this. Any reasonable business would be evaluating *all* leases. I'll just say, my business (which is located out of California) has paid significant lease costs for our office space, but we've only went with 6 month lease extensions while we evaluate better options. But, we are also negotiating costs with our existing landlord. It's 100% in the Orioles best interest to get the best deal with the MSA, and if that means going with a temporary 2 year extension while they work out grander plans for the next 5 years or beyond, that makes more sense than sticking themselves with a 7 year extension (or whatever it'd be). 

Also, why on Earth would any club be building a new stadium, especially in an unknown location with there being severe unknowns on how this pandemic impacts fan behaviour (going vs. watching). It's incredibly risky. It just doesn't make any sense.

My gut is that in 2023, the Orioles and the MSA worked out a longer extension with plans to renovate Camden Yards infrastructure. They're not relocating anywhere.

Now, if you ask me whether or not the Orioles would *sell* their team, that I'm still bearish on. But that is probable. Relocating isn't. I'd bet against both happening, personally. But I'd be comfortable putting money down (significant amounts) that the Orioles don't relocate. Certainly not to Nashville. 

One last thing, winning fixes everything. We've seen the Orioles do well with fans when they win. That's the biggest determinant (outside of a pandemic). Win, make it sustainable, do well with the community, and you'll do great. That's it. 

[LookitsPuck]

7 hours ago, wildcard said:

The O's probably want improvement to the Yard and the MSA is not in a position with the economy being what it is to commit to those improvements.   Kicking the can down the street two years hopefully gets passed the Pandemic.

Its doesn't have to be O's that want the delay.   

Yup. This is a two way street, and it doesn't make sense for either party to give in to any demands for longer than 2 years at this time.

[mojmann]

16 minutes ago, LookitsPuck said:

 

Nashville isn't a particular exciting place for a ball club. They have a slightly larger population than Baltimore, but they don't have nearly the same metro population as Baltimore does.

This is a key point. Metro area means everything. If you look at the latest metropolitan data, the Baltimore metro has about 2.8 million people; Nashville has about 1.9 million. Nashville metro is growing faster (17.5% since 2010) than Baltimore metro (3.3% since 2010), but it's going to take a long time to catch up. (For what it's worth, the Cleveland and Pittsburgh metros actually lost population since 2010, -1.39% and -1.64% respectively.)

What's more, Baltimore is hardly the smallest market in MLB:

St. Louis    2.8M
Baltimore   2.8M
Pittsburgh  2.3M
Cincinnati   2.2M
Kansas City  2.2M
Cleveland  2.1M
Milwaukee  1.6M

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas

In addition, we have 16.1 million people within a 100-mile radius of Camden Yards. That's a marketer's dream. 
Source: https://www.statsamerica.org/radius/big.aspx

   

 

 

[Dipper9]

8 hours ago, VaBird1 said:

The stadium is the best part of an Orioles game since 1992.

Fixed that for ya!

[Tony-OH]

23 hours ago, mojmann said:

This is a key point. Metro area means everything. If you look at the latest metropolitan data, the Baltimore metro has about 2.8 million people; Nashville has about 1.9 million. Nashville metro is growing faster (17.5% since 2010) than Baltimore metro (3.3% since 2010), but it's going to take a long time to catch up. (For what it's worth, the Cleveland and Pittsburgh metros actually lost population since 2010, -1.39% and -1.64% respectively.)

What's more, Baltimore is hardly the smallest market in MLB:

St. Louis    2.8M
Baltimore   2.8M
Pittsburgh  2.3M
Cincinnati   2.2M
Kansas City  2.2M
Cleveland  2.1M
Milwaukee  1.6M

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas

In addition, we have 16.1 million people within a 100-mile radius of Camden Yards. That's a marketer's dream. 
Source: https://www.statsamerica.org/radius/big.aspx

   

 

 

Yeah, but the vast majority of them have other teams they root for in the Phillies, Nats and Yankees, not to mention that DC area, particularly Northern VA is very transient and have a lot of people from other parts of the country there because of government work. You only need to look at the actual attendance to show the issue in Baltimore.

The attendance has fallen every year since 2014 from 2,464,473 to 1,307,807 in 2019, the lowest over a full season since 1978.

Since the Orioles won the World Series in 1983 (37 seasons) they have had winning record only 10 times and have only won the AL East twice over that period. While I grew up with the Orioles being the winningest team in baseball from the 70s through the early 80s, the one thing I'm not sure people really understand how bad this franchise has been for a generations of kids. In fact, I would argue it's now two generations away from kids that grew up believing that the Orioles were one of the best franchises in baseball and were consistently going to challenge for post season.

Add in everything else we've already talked about, and hard for a sport and fan base that relies so much on the past glories to continue to expect a large following.

I run a darn site dedicated to them so I clearly will always be a fan, but even I have to admit that the love of the Orioles in the Baltimore area may never see a rebound in interest unless Elias can rebuild them into a consistent winner once again. Of course the problems of building a consistent winner with the inequalities of the MLB landscape that allows for no salary cap is a whole other conversation.

Due to MLBs reluctance to let teams move, I don't see the Orioles going anywhere, but the days of putting 3 million+ into the stadium during a season will most likely never return.

 

[OriolesMagic83]

I think the Angelos brothers could be trying to minimize future obligations and leave the new owner the option to hold the city hostage.  Not so much to move the team out of state, but to move to Baltimore County.  The Braves moved to Cobb County 20 years after building a downtown stadium.  What is that downtown stadium used for? Flea markets?

[SteveA]

30 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think the Angelos brothers could be trying to minimize future obligations and leave the new owner the option to hold the city hostage.  Not so much to move the team out of state, but to move to Baltimore County.  The Braves moved to Cobb County 20 years after building a downtown stadium.  What is that downtown stadium used for? Flea markets?

Georgia State University football

[MurphDogg]

49 minutes ago, OriolesMagic83 said:

I think the Angelos brothers could be trying to minimize future obligations and leave the new owner the option to hold the city hostage.  Not so much to move the team out of state, but to move to Baltimore County.  The Braves moved to Cobb County 20 years after building a downtown stadium.  What is that downtown stadium used for? Flea markets?

Baltimore County isn't stupid enough to pay for a stadium like Cobb County was. The Cobb County deal was also shady as hell and was rammed through by a commissioner who went on to get crushed in his reelection bid.

[OriolesMagic83]

1 hour ago, MurphDogg said:

Baltimore County isn't stupid enough to pay for a stadium like Cobb County was. The Cobb County deal was also shady as hell and was rammed through by a commissioner who went on to get crushed in his reelection bid.

Yeah, I'm sure there are no shady politicians in Baltimore County.  Plus, as other people have mentioned there are tons of entertainment taxes that can pay for it.  I'm not saying that its likely the O's will move to Baltimore County, but its much more likely than the O's moving. 

[spiritof66]

On 2/9/2021 at 2:47 PM, mojmann said:

This is a key point. Metro area means everything. If you look at the latest metropolitan data, the Baltimore metro has about 2.8 million people; Nashville has about 1.9 million. Nashville metro is growing faster (17.5% since 2010) than Baltimore metro (3.3% since 2010), but it's going to take a long time to catch up. (For what it's worth, the Cleveland and Pittsburgh metros actually lost population since 2010, -1.39% and -1.64% respectively.)

What's more, Baltimore is hardly the smallest market in MLB:

St. Louis    2.8M
Baltimore   2.8M
Pittsburgh  2.3M
Cincinnati   2.2M
Kansas City  2.2M
Cleveland  2.1M
Milwaukee  1.6M

Source: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_metropolitan_statistical_areas

In addition, we have 16.1 million people within a 100-mile radius of Camden Yards. That's a marketer's dream. 
Source: https://www.statsamerica.org/radius/big.aspx 

Yes, Baltimore is not the smallest market in MLB. The problem with the market -- other than the decades of poor decisions dictated by ownership -- is that a team in Baltimore can't generate anywhere near the revenues that teams in New York, Boston and Toronto can. 

I think your last point looks at the situation in the wrong way. The most important factor in a team's ability to generate revenues is the size of the market. IMO, the next most important is the wealth of the people in that market and the presence of large companies and service firms that can afford to, and will, shell out for season tickets. Further down the list of factors, again IMO, is the team's ability to attract fans regionally from outside the metro area. The Cardinals have done that more than anyone other team in MLB, and have been doing it for about 100 years, because St. Louis was for so long both the western-most and southern-most MLB city. Most of the teams in your list of franchises in metro areas smaller than Baltimore have pretty large regional populations to draw from outside their metro areas. There are Indians fans in northern Ohio and Pennsylvania, Cincinnati fans in Indiana and Kentucky, etc.

With the advent of the Nats, the Orioles' prospects for drawing fans regionally from outside the Baltimore metro area are not very good. (When there was no team in Washington, those prospects were extremely good.) The fact that there is such a large population near Camden Yards is more a minus than a plus because of what goes along with all those people:  other, more successful MLB franchises for them to root for. Having all those people within 100 miles doesn't help the Orioles much if they are fans of the Nats, Phils, Yankees or Mets -- except, of course, when the Orioles are playing those teams. Other than to the south, the Orioles' territory is pretty much hemmed in on all sides by other MLB teams.