Should Adley Rutschman play in the majors in 2021?

[Ruzious]

41 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I have a better idea.   Instead of me explaining why he needs three months at AA.  You explain why he doesn't.    He has played a total of 37 minor league games.   A normal progression for AA is to play until mid season and then management determines if the player is ready for AAA.

Maybe this is the issue you don't understand. 

The goal is NOT to learn how to hit AA pitching. 

The goal IS to learn how to hit major league hitting.

[Can_of_corn]

7 minutes ago, wildcard said:

When you resort to character  assassination it time to stop the conversation.

Poor naive soul counts as character assassination now?

Sorry I had no idea.

 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, Ruzious said:

Maybe this is the issue you don't understand. 

The goal is NOT to learn how to hit AA pitching. 

The goal IS to learn how to hit major league hitting.

If we learned anything from Manny if was that the O's are probably not go to sign Adley to an expensive long term contract.   Not in the O's mid market.   So the O's are only going to have Adley for 6 years.   Maybe less if they trade him for prospects before he becomes a FA.

So the O's will want to get the best 6 years they can get.  They don't want him to learn to hit in majors.  They want him as prepared has possible to hit in the majors before he gets there.   That is best way to make him productive all the time is in the majors with them.

[Legend_Of_Joey]

At this point, I couldn’t care any less. Why?

Since even before Day 1, people have been on this guy like a horny person at closing time of the bar.

If he comes up and turns into Barry Bonds (minus the extra help,) this board might explode in ecstasy. If he comes up and has anything less than a Hall of Fame career with a 1.000 average and a home run every at bat, this board might explode in rage.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, wildcard said:

If we learned anything from Manny if was that the O's are probably not go to sign Adley to an expensive long term contract.   Not in the O's mid market.   So the O's are only going to have Adley for 6 years.   Maybe less if they trade him for prospects before he becomes a FA.

So the O's will want to get the best 6 years they can get.  They don't want him to learn to hit in majors.  They want him as prepared has possible to hit in the majors before he gets there.   That is best way to make him productive all the time is in the majors with them.

So it's about the service clock after all?

Why didn't you just admit that in the first place?

 

[Sports Guy]

1 minute ago, wildcard said:

If we learned anything from Manny if was that the O's are probably not go to sign Adley to an expensive long term contract.   Not in the O's mid market.   So the O's are only going to have Adley for 6 years.   Maybe less if they trade him for prospects before he becomes a FA.

So the O's will want to get the best 6 years they can get.  They don't want him to learn to hit in majors.  They want him as prepared has possible to hit in the majors before he gets there.   That is best way to make him productive all the time is in the majors with them.

What we learned from Manny is that the prior regime tried to sign Manny and were 10M apart and screwed it up.

That doesn’t mean they will do the same with Adley.

Btw, if we are going with the idea of “if we learned from a Manny” is that they don’t necessarily care if “you are ready” either.  

Your criteria is a constant moving target, which is why it’s wrong.

[Sports Guy]

What is the Os prospects struggle in 2021 and the team isn’t trying to win in 2022?  Do we keep Adley in the minors for another season?

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Sports Guy said:

What is the Os prospects struggle in 2021 and the team isn’t trying to win in 2022?  Do we keep Adley in the minors for another season?

I think some folks would be in favor of it, at least until they got the seventh season...well might as well wait for super 2...

He has to prove himself!

[Just Regular]

Was Wieters' minor league development appropriate?

That would correspond with a Memorial Day callup.   Wieters was "only" .900 OPS in 40 AAA games that year.

We'll never know the xwOBA of Adley's Bowie batted balls from 2020, but the club does.  

Wieters' masterful AA batting record maybe a little bit relevant here.   I think by the end we learned his bat perhaps wasn't quite quick enough to beast out in MLB, but he sure could in the Eastern League.   

To some extent, the time push/pull boils down to:

-do we care more how good he is in his first MLB month, whenever it is, or do we care more how good he can get by OD 2022?   I don't really care how many times Gerrit Cole strikes him out this year, I don't figure that to break him.   I care a pretty good amount how competitive a match he can make that next year, and even this September.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, OrioleDog said:

Was Wieters' minor league development appropriate?

That would correspond with a Memorial Day callup.   Wieters was "only" .900 OPS in 40 AAA games that year.

We'll never know the xwOBA of Adley's Bowie batted balls from 2020, but the club does.  

Wieters' masterful AA batting record maybe a little bit relevant here.   I think by the end we learned his bat perhaps wasn't quite quick enough to beast out in MLB, but he sure could in the Eastern League.   

To some extent, the time push/pull boils down to:

-do we care more how good he is in his first MLB month, whenever it is, or do we care more how good he can get by OD 2022?   I don't really care how many times Gerrit Cole strikes him out this year, I don't figure that to break him.   I care a pretty good amount how competitive a match he can make that next year, and even this September.

From what I recall folks in the industry and outside both saw him being sent to AAA more a matter of gaming his service time over him needing more development.

He got promoted shortly after the projected sup 2 cutoff.

[Sports Guy]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

I think some folks would be in favor of it, at least until they got the seventh season...well might as well wait for super 2...

He has to prove himself!

If your answer is 2021 is an irrelevant year and we shouldn’t use him for an irrelevant year and 2022 ends up being an irrelevant year, then your answer has to be to keep him down another year.  If it’s not, why should we consider your answer now as anything relevant to discuss?

[DrinkinWithFermi]

1 hour ago, Can_of_corn said:

Was Manny's bat ready for ML pitching when he was promoted?

Was Schoop's?

No, and the results were pretty "meh" for their first few seasons.

Manny 2012-2014: .278/.313/.434, 103 OPS+

Jonny 2014-2016: .250/.282/.427, 90 OPS+

That doesn't automatically mean that they would have fared better initially with more development time in the minors, of course, but I also don't think it's all that unreasonable to think that they might have.

[Just Regular]

As much as Wieters and Rutschman are near twin blue chips, it is kind of funny the contrast due to circumstance how PECOTA or any given algorithm beholds them.

One other note on Minors v. Majors, for all the coaching focus they did get, I doubt Rutschman, Yusniel, Gunnar or anyone really had opponents sit in their kitchen last summer.   Even a guy like Baumann, who I imagine is a freight train like that, I think probably exercised some caution there.   If Bruce Zimmermann wants to be the hometown darling until better guys leapfrog, he definitely doesn't want to mess with hand bones.

Any hitter that's going to make it will have to cope with that.   Apart from the unique developmental experience of facing MLB pitching, I think AA is more dotted with any schmoe who did his Driveline and can attain AA with his new 97, even though he isn't quite sure where it is going.   You bet his adrenaline runs hottest facing "Adley Rutschman" (and "Wander Franco") too.

I agree with the blip Rutschman needs to show us he can play, but I hope that standard is more like three weeks than three months.   My prior is expectation he's already better than the Eastern League, and a small stamp can serve.   It looks like Week 9 Series 2 with Akron is the first Baysox repeat opponent, so no I don't hope we need to discover if Rutschman can "handle how the league is adjusting to him".   Some Sundays he might get to see what the Tuesday Night Ace does.

[Can_of_corn]

12 minutes ago, DrinkinWithFermi said:

No, and the results were pretty "meh" for their first few seasons.

Manny 2012-2014: .278/.313/.434, 103 OPS+

Jonny 2014-2016: .250/.282/.427, 90 OPS+

That doesn't automatically mean that they would have fared better initially with more development time in the minors, of course, but I also don't think it's all that unreasonable to think that they might have.

The question, to me, isn't if they would have fared better initially.  It's if more time in the minors would have been beneficial overall?  Was being in the majors in 2012 an advantage or disadvantage for Machado's overall career?  I'd say it was an advantage.

[interloper]

I don't understand the rush. The guy has barely picked up a wooden bat in the minors yet. 130 AB split between rookie and A-ball that tells us almost as much as if he had 0 ABs. I mean it's an absolutely meaningless amount of AB, especially considering it was split between levels and he was sick part of that year and then sat out all of last year. 

It sure sounds like he's a ML-ready prospect or whatever, but can we get him through a year of AA first? Bring him up in 2022 if he destroys the league, but anyone who is not fully expecting him to slightly disappoint the frankly outrageous expectations this year isn't really doing it right IMO.