TB on the verge of a dynasty?

[oriole_way]

or at least a mini dynasty?

While anything can happen in a best of 7 format, I still feel that TB should win this World Series.

And while the Rays play in the same division as the Yankee$ and Red $ox, I do believe that we've yet to see the best of them. I believe that all or most of their core players are relatively young and are years away from free agency, so there is really no reason why they can't keep that team together. Offensively, they were able to withstand key injuries this year like those suffered by Crawford and Longoria. They didn't suffer any significant injuries to their starting pitching staff this year, but with the depth of their pitching staff, I can see them withstanding injuries in coming years. We haven't yet seen the best of many of their core players, such as Upton, Price, Longoria etc. And I believe that they have the FO/ownership (Friedman) in place who will be able to do a good job with the small things (like having a decent bench, good role players, or a good bullpen) that are important to win.

I can't say that they will be a force for the next decade. Their payroll will eventually skyrocket if they try to keep the core of this team intact and they won't be drafting at the top anymore. But they should be very good for at least the next 3-5 years.

[geschinger]

The beauty of their situation is that they've built an incredible foundation (something the O's should try an emulate) that could allow them to compete and keep payroll down.

Friedman has shown a lot of courage trading quality players. They'll have the flexibility to raise their payroll to sign a couple of their key guys to extensions. But they can also trade some of them to reload... As their next wave of pitching develops I could see them trading a Kazmir type player for a several more solid prospects to keep the foundation well stocked.

[scOtt]

They have a lot of young studs...

I was especially impressed, first with Maddon even considering it... but with David Price coming in for the ninth in a seventh game. And then coming in and throwing heat and filth! Buh-bye Red Sox!

:rofl:

[ElToro75]

or at least a mini dynasty?

While anything can happen in a best of 7 format, I still feel that TB should win this World Series.

And while the Rays play in the same division as the Yankee$ and Red $ox, I do believe that we've yet to see the best of them. I believe that all or most of their core players are relatively young and are years away from free agency, so there is really no reason why they can't keep that team together. Offensively, they were able to withstand key injuries this year like those suffered by Crawford and Longoria. They didn't suffer any significant injuries to their starting pitching staff this year, but with the depth of their pitching staff, I can see them withstanding injuries in coming years. We haven't yet seen the best of many of their core players, such as Upton, Price, Longoria etc. And I believe that they have the FO/ownership (Friedman) in place who will be able to do a good job with the small things (like having a decent bench, good role players, or a good bullpen) that are important to win.

I can't say that they will be a force for the next decade. Their payroll will eventually skyrocket if they try to keep the core of this team intact and they won't be drafting at the top anymore. But they should be very good for at least the next 3-5 years.

I think it's possible, but let's not put the cart before the horse here. Let's see how they play in the World Series before we start tossing around the "D" word.

What they have done, is laid out a very impressive blueprint for small market teams to be able to compete with the "big guns" (Yankees, Red Sox, Cubs, Mets, Etc.). I'm sure other small market teams GM's have been watching the Rays season pretty closely, on and off the field. If they follow the Rays' blue print then MLB could be much more competitive across the board in the future.

[Mackus]

Depends on how the area responds to the team. If they start supporting them and the Rays can stop being a small-market team, they'll be able to keep the talent they have and be a very good team for a long time.

If not, they'll slowly lose the top talent they have and won't have the resources to supplement through free agency and they'll come back down.

They'll be an excellent team for the next 3-4 years regardless of what the fans do, though. How long after that will come down to finances and if they can keep having success through the draft while having later picks.

[Frobby]

My biggest question with Tampa relates to the bullpen. There are an awful lot of guys there who were far better in 2008 than they had been previously.

Wheeler (age 30) had a 3.12 ERA this year but is a 3.96 ERA career pitcher who had a 5.30 ERA in 2007.

Balfour (age 30) had a 1.54 ERA this year but is a 3.93 ERA career pitcher who had a 7.66 ERA in 2007.

Howell (age 25) had a 2.22 ERA this year but is a 4.90 ERA career pitcher who had a 7.59 ERA in 2007. He was converted to a reliever this year.

Those three guys threw 214 innings of very effective relief in 2008. If that slips dramatically in 2009 you could see chinks in Tampa's armor. Granted, they have a lot of young pitchers who can step in if any of these guys fail, as Price did in the Red Sox series.

One other thing: Tampa's starting five started 154 games this year. They were incredibly fortunate on the health front. Chances are they won't be so lucky in the future.

[nadecir]

My biggest question with Tampa relates to the bullpen. There are an awful lot of guys there who were far better in 2008 than they had been previously.

Wheeler (age 30) had a 3.12 ERA this year but is a 3.96 ERA career pitcher who had a 5.30 ERA in 2007.

Balfour (age 30) had a 1.54 ERA this year but is a 3.93 ERA career pitcher who had a 7.66 ERA in 2007.

Howell (age 25) had a 2.22 ERA this year but is a 4.90 ERA career pitcher who had a 7.59 ERA in 2007. He was converted to a reliever this year.

Those three guys threw 214 innings of very effective relief in 2008. If that slips dramatically in 2009 you could see chinks in Tampa's armor. Granted, they have a lot of young pitchers who can step in if any of these guys fail, as Price did in the Red Sox series.

One other thing: Tampa's starting five started 154 games this year. They were incredibly fortunate on the health front. Chances are they won't be so lucky in the future.

It will be interesting to see what the Rays do with all that pitching depth. For example, where does David Price fit in next year? The Rays could afford a an injury or two to their staff and still be fine. Some of that starting depth in the high minors (Niemann, Davis, Talbot) could go to the pen, or fill in for an injured starters. Pitching depth doesn't seem to be a problem for the Rays.

Buster Olney thinks the Rays offense is better than it showed this season. From his blog:

So why did the Rays score only 774 runs, just ninth best in the league?

Bad luck, mostly. The Rays finished with the fourth-best on-base percentage and the eighth-best slugging percentage, and that was with only two of their key hitters playing 140 or more games, and with B.J. Upton playing all season but suffering much of the time from a shoulder injury (from which he seems to have really, really healed). On balance, I suspect that right now Tampa's offense is the fifth-best in the American League.

Tim Marchman writes this about the Rays defense:

What makes the Rays so good? Start with defense. The Rays ranked first in baseball in defensive efficiency this year, which measures how many balls in play they turn into outs. Jason Bartlett, a great-field/no-hit shortstop of a kind that's been out of fashion for at least a decade, showed how they do it in the second inning, materializing from the ether behind second base to rob Mark Kotsay of a base hit. You won't see ostentatious dives from the Rays, but you will see them in areas of the field they have no business being in. Bartlett, left fielder Carl Crawford, first baseman Carlos Pena, and second baseman Akinori Iwamura all rated among the top three in the league at their positions in making plays outside of their zones—that is, ranging beyond the space they're supposed to cover to corral balls that would otherwise go for hits. With all those great fielders, the Rays play like they have 10 men on the field.

I don't think there is much doubt given the Rays' youth and depth, they will be good for a while to come.

[aggro5288]

They have a lot of young studs...

I was especially impressed, first with Maddon even considering it... but with David Price coming in for the ninth in a seventh game. And then coming in and throwing heat and filth! Buh-bye Red Sox!

:rofl:

This was a no brainer to me. Price should have been in earlier in that game, and should have come in when Kazmir came out in game 5 with them up 7-0. I would take Price over any player they have in the bullpen right now, even though their bullpen has been decent.

[Frobby]

It will be interesting to see what the Rays do with all that pitching depth. For example, where does David Price fit in next year? The Rays could afford a an injury or two to their staff and still be fine. Some of that starting depth in the high minors (Niemann, Davis, Talbot) could go to the pen, or fill in for an injured starters. Pitching depth doesn't seem to be a problem for the Rays.

Buster Olney thinks the Rays offense is better than it showed this season....

Tim Marchman writes this about the Rays defense....

I don't think there is much doubt given the Rays' youth and depth, they will be good for a while to come.

I agree with everything you wrote here. I was particularly amazed at how much the Rays' defense improved in one season, which obviously helped the pitchers a great deal. They should be good for a long time, but I could still imagine a scenario where their pitching slips somewhat. All it takes is for a few guys to not do as well as they did the previous year; they don't have to collapse completely.

[DrungoHazewood]

I agree with everything you wrote here. I was particularly amazed at how much the Rays' defense improved in one season, which obviously helped the pitchers a great deal. They should be good for a long time, but I could still imagine a scenario where their pitching slips somewhat. All it takes is for a few guys to not do as well as they did the previous year; they don't have to collapse completely.

I think their pitching will slip, if only because of regression to the mean. Most teams that lead the league in anything do so because they have any number of players who're either having career years or are abnormally healthy.

But they have set themselves up well for keeping their "true" talent level in the 85-90 win range that makes them contenders. The key to long-term success is money, the continued success of the farm (which will regress somewhat because of draft position), and the willingness to trade key players before they get expensive and/or decline.

[Migrant Redbird]

The Rays have had the benefit of a lot of high draft picks in recent years. First rounders are more likely to make it to the majors than those drafted in subsequent rounds, but the real blue chippers, the "can't miss" (even though they sometimes do) are the first half dozen or so in each year's first round.

Since 1998, the lowest of the Rays' 1st round draft picks has been an 8th overall, Wade Townsend in 2005. In addition to that, the Rays have had 4 #1 overall picks (Beckham, Price, Young, Hamilton); a #2 overall (Upton), 2 #3 overall picks (Longoria, Brazelton), a #4 (Niemann), and a #6 (Baldelli). Of those picks, Price, Upton, Longoria, and Baldelli are still with them and Young was used to acquire Garza from the Twins.

I attempted to summarize the Rays 1st round picks since they began and compare those with the Orioles, Yankees, and Cardinals.

        1ST RD PICKS           RAYS         ORIOLES          YANKEES        CARDINALSYEAR   POS  PICK        POS    PICK      POS    PICK      POS    PICK2008    1   Beckham      4   Matusz       28   Cole        13   Wallace                                         44   Bleich      39   Lynn2007    1   *Price       5   Wieters      30   Brackman    18   Kozma                                                           36   Mortensen 2006    3   *Longoria    9   Rowell       NP  (Damon)      30   Ottavino                       32   Beato        21   *Kennedy    42   *Perez                                         41   *Chamberlain2005    8   Townsend    13   Snyder       17   Henry       28   Rasmus                       48   *Olson                        30   Greene                                                          43   McCormick                                                          46   Herron2004    4   Niemann      8   Townsend     23   *Hughes     19   Lambert                                         37   Poterson                                         41   Marquez2003    1   *Young       7   *Markakis    27   E.Duncan    28   *Barton2002    2   *BJ Upton    4   *Loewen      NP  (Giambi)     NP  (Isringhausen)2001    3   *Brazelton   7   C. Smith     NP  (Mussina)    28   Pope                       19   *Fontenot    23   *Griffin                            31   Bass         34   *Sardinha2000    6   *Baldelli   14   Hale         28   Parrish     13   Boyd                       32   Johnson                       24   Williams1999    1   *Hamilton   13   Paradis      27   Walling     NP  (E. Davis)                       18   Stahl                         30   Caple                       21   *Bigbie                       36   Stocks                       23   Reed                          46   *C. Duncan                       34   Cenate                       44   Rice                       50   *Roberts1998   NP               26   Elder        24   Brown        5   *JD Drew                                         43   Prior       32   Diggins1997   31   *Standridge 22   *Werth       24   Godwin      20   *Kennedy                       26   *McDonald    40   Bradley                       36   Ndungidi1996   29   Wilder      NP                20   *Milton)     3   *Looper* indicates that player signed and reached the major leagues; does not include players who weren't signed, even if they eventually ended up in the majors, e.g., Mark Prior's being drafted by Yankees in 1998.

The O's have also had a lot of high picks, although not nearly as many as the Rays.

To summarize the table above, the number of 1st round picks that have reached the majors for the 4 teams above are:

Rays: 8/12 = 67%

Orioles: 8/25 = 32%

Yankees: 6/18 = 33%

Cardinals: 6/22 = 27%

That's a pretty dramatic difference between the Rays' success on 1st rounders and that of other teams drafting lower in the round. It's not the only thing which elevated the Rays to being among the league elite (Crawford was a 2nd round pick; Dukes was a 3rd rounder; Seth McClung and Aubrey Huff were 5th rounders; and Toby Hall was a 9th rounder in 1997), but it obviously was a major factor.

[scOtt]

Rays: 8/12 = 67%

Orioles: 8/25 = 32%

Yankees: 6/18 = 33%

Cardinals: 6/22 = 27%

That's a pretty dramatic difference between the Rays' success on 1st rounders and that of other teams drafting lower in the round. It's not the only thing which elevated the Rays to being among the league elite (Crawford was a 2nd round pick; Dukes was a 3rd rounder; Seth McClung and Aubrey Huff were 5th rounders; and Toby Hall was a 9th rounder in 1997), but it obviously was a major factor.

I wonder how much of that depends on the fact that til this year, the Rays... sucked. What did they have to lose? Not saying that I'm not salivating on many of their picks, just that they have had more freedom to bring more of those prospects up. Get their feet wet, earlier, as it were.

[Migrant Redbird]

I wonder how much of that depends on the fact that til this year, the Rays... sucked.

Duh!.... That was the essence of my post.

In the last 10 years, all 10 of the Rays' picks were #8 overall or higher, including 4 #1 overall picks. You don't get picks that high without being a consistently really bad team, unless you got a compensation pick when another very bad team signed one of your free agents. The Rays haven't been around long enough for any of their draft picks to become eligible for free agency and their payroll hasn't been high enough for them to have very many players acquired in trade or free agency that would merit compensatory picks.

... What did they have to lose? Not saying that I'm not salivating on many of their picks, just that they have had more freedom to bring more of those prospects up. Get their feet wet, earlier, as it were.

Those "glory days" are probably over for a few years, which is the point of this thread.

[Frobby]

Duh!.... That was the essence of my post.

In the last 10 years, all 10 of the Rays' picks were #8 overall or higher, including 4 #1 overall picks. You don't get picks that high without being a consistently really bad team, unless you got a compensation pick when another very bad team signed one of your free agents. The Rays haven't been around long enough for any of their draft picks to become eligible for free agency and their payroll hasn't been high enough for them to have very many players acquired in trade or free agency that would merit compensatory picks.

Those "glory days" are probably over for a few years, which is the point of this thread.

I think he was making a different point -- that some of the Rays' 1st round picks made it to the majors not because they had turned out well, but because the guys in front of them were not very good. They might not have gotten that opportunity if they had been playing in the Yankee organization, for example.

Obviously nobody is saying that about the picks who turned out to be stars. Maybe you could argue the point as to Brazelton and Standridge.

[Migrant Redbird]

I think he was making a different point -- that some of the Rays' 1st round picks made it to the majors not because they had turned out well, but because the guys in front of them were not very good.

Thanks! I didn't read it quite that way.

They might not have gotten that opportunity if they had been playing in the Yankee organization, for example.

Obviously nobody is saying that about the picks who turned out to be stars. Maybe you could argue the point as to Brazelton and Standridge.

Good points. Brazelton and Standridge have marginal ML careers and might never have made it to the majors with a stronger team.

For an example, using another former Devil Ray, Adrian Gonzalez's little brother, Edgar, had an .822 career OPS through his first 8 minor league seasons, yet was unable to make it to the major leagues with the Rays, Rangers, Nationals, Marlins, or Cardinals. The Cardinals, despite a thin pool of candidates to fill a weak 2nd base position, let Edgar go at the end of the 2007 season, even though he led the Memphis Redbirds with a .308 BA, 8 home runs, and 53 RBIs. While I've never seen him play, apparently Edgar is mediocre on defense and the Cardinals didn't feel he could play at the ML level. He got the chance with the Padres last May, and proceeded to hit .274/.329/.385/.714 with 7 home runs in 325 at bats as a 29 year old rookie.