Bedard on the block?

[Sports Guy]

I'll just assume that these are rhetorical questions, because I've already acknowledged all of this in my post. And besides his slugging percentage hasn't drastically declined. If you take out 2004 when it was 534(his career high), it's stayed pretty consistent...unless you thought he was going to slug that high yearly. And his OPS+ has been higher and relatively consistent since joining the Orioles.

I just really don't see how he's declining aside from defense.

Slugging since he has come to Baltimore:

2004: 534

2005: 515

2006: 498

2007: 423

Do you notice a trend? BTW, pointing out his slugging numbers in that horrible hitters park in Oakland makes little sense right now.

Now, let me be clear that i do not think Tejada is a 423 slugging guy. I think he is more around a 440-475 slugging guy right now.

But it is declining and as he gets more into his 30s, it could decline very quickly.

And yes, his defense is worse but i don't think it is as bad as some on here think it is.

[Baltimoron]

BTW, let's not pretend that Anaheim's park is some great pitchers park.

I'm being leveled, right?

It suppressed home runs 8% below league average from 2003-2006. Hmm, I wonder if that's why such an extreme flyball pitcher like E.Santanna has such divergent home and road numbers.

For example, coming into this year he has thrown 70 more career innings at home and allowed 9 fewer hrs.

This year he has about the same number of home/road innings (52.1 - 51.1), yet has allowed 6 homers at home and 17 on the road.

Dude would get slaughtered in OPACY.

[Sports Guy]

I'm being leveled, right?

It suppressed home runs 8% below league average from 2003-2006. Hmm, I wonder if that's why such an extreme flyball pitcher like E.Santanna has such divergent home and road numbers.

For example, coming into this year he has thrown 70 more career innings at home and allowed 9 fewer hrs.

This year he has about the same number if home/road innings (52.1 - 51.1), yet has allowed 6 homers at Home and 17 on the road.

Dude would get slaughtered in OPACY.

Yea, the #1 thing he has to improve on is the flyball rate...I don't doubt or question that for 1 second.

However, isn't there something to be said with him getting better with age and of course, Mazzone?

[Frobby]

Yea, the #1 thing he has to improve on is the flyball rate...I don't doubt or question that for 1 second.

However, isn't there something to be said with him getting better with age and of course, Mazzone?

I don't even know who LA's pitching coach is, but I'd have to say he has done a pretty good job. They've been 3rd in ERA three years running and in the top 6 for 7 years in a row.

[Sports Guy]

I don't even know who LA's pitching coach is, but I'd have to say he has done a pretty good job. They've been 3rd in ERA three years running and in the top 6 for 7 years in a row.

I believe it was Bud Black and he is now the manager in SD??

Not sure who it is now.

[Pedro Cerrano]

I don't even know who LA's pitching coach is, but I'd have to say he has done a pretty good job. They've been 3rd in ERA three years running and in the top 6 for 7 years in a row.

'Twas Bud Black 'till he went to SD. Not sure who it is now.

[JTrea81]

I don't even know who LA's pitching coach is, but I'd have to say he has done a pretty good job. They've been 3rd in ERA three years running and in the top 6 for 7 years in a row.

None other than Rick Honeycutt...

[orioole28]

Beddard is a great pitcher, but, He's only had 1 complete game in his career, He has never one 20 and don't forget, He's a FA in two years. I'm sure his agent will strongly advise him NOT to sign an extension( I would). Why sign now when your value will just increase? As far as a "Hometown Discount", remember He's from Canada. He gives the impression he really doesn't want to be here. There is no reason NOT to trade him now. A player that a team will control for 2 years is more valuable than a 1 year rental.

Cabrera for

Dodgers- Loney, Kemp, Kershaw( any 2)

DBacks- Jackson & Quenton

Mets- Pelfrey, Milliedge, and or Gomez

RedSox- Bucholz & Gabbard

Braves- Saltalammachia and Escobar

The Dodgers would NEVER give up Loney and Kemp. Those 2 players are no longer prospect. The are now and forever on the 25man roster. They will never be option back to AAA. They have arrived!!!

[Sports Guy]

I'm going to quote this post one more time in hopes that SG may eventually stop completely misrepresenting what is being argued. This is the third time and you still haven't addressed it at all.

I did address it...I point out that DCab, by FIP, has progressive gotten worse...Santana was slightly better from 2004 to 2005 and terrible this year. And speaking of points that aren't being addressed...Do you plan on mentioning the age difference anytime soon or do you continue to not mention it because it hurts your case?

I don't personally think Cabrera's chances for future success are better than Santana's. However, that isn't the point. I wouldn't trade Tejada for Cabrera/Aybar or Santana/Aybar.

It isn't the point when you talk the Miggy trade but the Santana/DCab comparison was brought up.

BTW, I love how you've just completely ignored Aybar in this whole thread. Kind of tough to make even a bad argument for him at this point, isn't it?

I have ignored him because he has barely been mentioned...However, as awful as he has looked this year, i still think he can give us what CPat gave us last year, but at SS and not CF. I think he can be a 5-8 win type player with his defense, speed and gap power.

[Eight]

If the Orioles had a pitcher with Santana's stuff, who has had sub 4.50 ERA's, good BB and command rate, improving K rate and wasn't even 25, you would be all over him.

Can you point me to this pitcher?

Santana ranks 29th/38 AL qualifiers in BB rate. He ranked 33rd/39 among AL qualifiers in 2006. In 2005, he would have ranked 40th/45 among AL qualifiers if he had enough innings to qualify.

He ranks 21/35 among AL qualifiers in K/BB. He ranked 28/39 among AL qualifiers in K/BB in 2006. He would have ranked 29/44 among AL qualifiers in 2005 if he had enough innings to qualify.

Given that he's never once finished in the top half of qualifiers in his league in either K/BB or BB/9 it would be either disingenuous or erroneous to say Santana's numbers in these areas are good.

His K/9 trend has been 6.66 -> 6.22 ->7.11. Given the drop last year, we can hardly say he's improving with any reasonable confidence. Especially since, as you've pointed out, those numbers accrued this year are skewed by the small sample size.

And of course he had just one sub 4.50 ERA. In the other two seasons - comprising well over half of his career innings - he's had a 5.35 ERA. So let's not dwell too long on that one league average season which is, in the big scheme of things, another relatively small sample size.

And this analysis doesn't even touch on his ghastly ground ball rate, which, just for fun rates 38/39, 36/39, and 41/45 among AL qualifiers in his three seasons.

I'm not sure where the statistical evidence is that he's been anymore than a middling pitcher in his three seasons. I can't speak for any other posters, but I certainly wouldn't be all over a pitcher who happens to be an extreme flyball pitcher with neither average control (as measured by BB/9) or average command (as measured by K/BB).

[Sports Guy]

Can you point me to this pitcher?

Santana ranks 29th/38 AL qualifiers in BB rate. He ranked 33rd/39 among AL qualifiers in 2006. In 2005, he would have ranked 40th/45 among AL qualifiers if he had enough innings to qualify.

He ranks 21/35 among AL qualifiers in K/BB. He ranked 28/39 among AL qualifiers in K/BB in 2006. He would have ranked 29/44 among AL qualifiers in 2005 if he had enough innings to qualify.

Given that he's never once finished in the top half of qualifiers in his league in either K/BB or BB/9 it would be either disingenuous or erroneous to say Santana's numbers in these areas are good.

His K/9 trend has been 6.66 -> 6.22 ->7.11. Given the drop last year, we can hardly say he's improving with any reasonable confidence. Especially since, as you've pointed out, those numbers accrued this year are skewed by the small sample size.

And of course he had just one sub 4.50 ERA. In the other two seasons - comprising well over half of his career innings - he's had a 5.35 ERA. So let's not dwell too long on that one league average season which is, in the big scheme of things, another relatively small sample size.

And this analysis doesn't even touch on his ghastly ground ball rate, which, just for fun rates 38/39, 36/39, and 41/45 among AL qualifiers in his three seasons.

I'm not sure where the statistical evidence is that he's been anymore than a middling pitcher in his three seasons. I can't speak for any other posters, but I certainly wouldn't be all over a pitcher who happens to be an extreme flyball pitcher with neither average control (as measured by BB/9) or average command (as measured by K/BB).

You don't think a BB rate of 3.2 is solid? Especially for a pitcher of his age?

I am not sure what league average is but that is a pretty good career rate for a guy who isn't 25 yet.

[Sports Guy]

Can you point me to this pitcher?

Santana ranks 29th/38 AL qualifiers in BB rate. He ranked 33rd/39 among AL qualifiers in 2006. In 2005, he would have ranked 40th/45 among AL qualifiers if he had enough innings to qualify.

He ranks 21/35 among AL qualifiers in K/BB. He ranked 28/39 among AL qualifiers in K/BB in 2006. He would have ranked 29/44 among AL qualifiers in 2005 if he had enough innings to qualify.

Given that he's never once finished in the top half of qualifiers in his league in either K/BB or BB/9 it would be either disingenuous or erroneous to say Santana's numbers in these areas are good.

His K/9 trend has been 6.66 -> 6.22 ->7.11. Given the drop last year, we can hardly say he's improving with any reasonable confidence. Especially since, as you've pointed out, those numbers accrued this year are skewed by the small sample size.

And of course he had just one sub 4.50 ERA. In the other two seasons - comprising well over half of his career innings - he's had a 5.35 ERA. So let's not dwell too long on that one league average season which is, in the big scheme of things, another relatively small sample size.

And this analysis doesn't even touch on his ghastly ground ball rate, which, just for fun rates 38/39, 36/39, and 41/45 among AL qualifiers in his three seasons.

I'm not sure where the statistical evidence is that he's been anymore than a middling pitcher in his three seasons. I can't speak for any other posters, but I certainly wouldn't be all over a pitcher who happens to be an extreme flyball pitcher with neither average control (as measured by BB/9) or average command (as measured by K/BB).

So then i guess you are done with DCab then, right?

[Sports Guy]

We already own DCab. We aren't being asked to trade a perennial all star for him. That is a huge difference. If I could get Santana for someone like Corey Patterson, I would take that chance, but there is no freaking way that Santana/Aybar is worth Tejada.

As of this second, assuming health for Miggy, you are correct.

Will that be the case over the next 5 years? I don't think so.

[Sports Guy]

We already own DCab. We aren't being asked to trade a perennial all star for him. That is a huge difference. If I could get Santana for someone like Corey Patterson, I would take that chance, but there is no freaking way that Santana/Aybar is worth Tejada.

This doesn't matter...We are also talking Santana vs DCab...You keep posting the stats that compared them...So are you talking about the comparison, the trade or both?

[Sports Guy]

VaTech...FWIW, if we can deal Miggy for a good(perhaps better) package, we win the WS or Santana and Aybar totally suck for the next 3-5 years, i will then say that the Orioles were right in not doing that deal...Or should i say, PA wa right.

Right now, i still think we are better off, future wise, with Santana and Aybar.

And that is even assuming we keep Santana and not flipping him in another deal or his presence allowing us to make it easier to trade someone else.