Bedard on the block?

[JTrea81]

Put it this way, you have to look at the odds in this case.

If you can get three top prospects for Bedard (two postion players, one pitcher) what are the odds that:

The pitcher and the position players are successful MLers that contribute to a series of playoff runs?

VS.

Bedard has future seasons just like this year or better, we are able to extend him and he doesn't get hurt for the life of that extension?

Given the fragility of pitchers, I would say that the odds are better for the prospects to contribute more to future contention then Bedard by himself.

[Frobby]

Okay. He's a sportscaster, not a blogger. That doesn't really change anything, IMO. Unless we hear from Bedard himself, it's still complete speculation.

Well, here is what Bedard himself had to say:

In a perfect world, Bedard would like to be talking of a long-term contract with the only organization he has ever played for.

"If the numbers made sense - sure," said Bedard. "I like where I am. But to this point, there's been no offer (of a long-term deal)."

http://216.239.51.104/search?q=cache:q9wEKfK-Cl8J:www.canada.com/topics/sports/story.html%3Fid%3D161031c5-f8da-4211-8f1a-9b4e38aabb97%26k%3D75353+bedard+contract+arbitration+long+term&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=4

By the way, as a public service, check out this website, which I found while looking for Bedard quotes on this subject. I expect major rep points for this!

http://216.239.51.104/search?q=cache:ZHrr8lKhAAcJ:www.sportsfrog.com/nighty_cap/+bedard+contract+arbitration+long+term&hl=en&ct=clnk&cd=95

[NewMarketSean]

Sorry, buddy, but this is a classic "I'm losing the argument" tactic. Sure, something else could have happened that would have changed things. No kidding. Tejada could suddenly hit for a 950 OPS for the next 2.5 years too. Should I throw that out as justification against facts in evidence? You can only evaluate trades with known facts. He proved that this trade was a bad idea and he discounted your stance that DCab only looks better than Santana because of "a few bad months" as you put it.

Tejada has never had an OPS over .900... how is he going to do that for 2.5 years straight as he gets older???

[Sports Guy]

Who is basing anything on a few months of poor play? He showed you stats for all three years and proved that DCab was easily as good or better than Santana when looking at their numbers as a whole. He proved that rather convincingly. Stop throwing misinformation out there.

I must have missed that...All i saw was one stat that is definitely skewed by this year.

Sorry, buddy, but this is a classic "I'm losing the argument" tactic. Sure, something else could have happened that would have changed things. No kidding. Tejada could suddenly hit for a 950 OPS for the next 2.5 years too. Should I throw that out as justification against facts in evidence? You can only evaluate trades with known facts. He proved that this trade was a bad idea and he discounted your stance that DCab only looks better than Santana because of "a few bad months" as you put it.

BTW, you wanted this trade to happen last year...So let's not think that you disliked Santana or something before this year.

The bottom line is if you liked the deal last year, a few bad months of Santana shouldn't change anything, especially since Tejada's has seen his value drop as well.

Look, I've got no axe to grind here, but you are coming across as stubbornly defending the indefensible at this point on that trade. It wasn't a good trade then. It isn't a good trade now. It won't be a good trade in the future IMHO. If it does turn out to be a good move (which is possible since both these guys are very young and Tejada has 2.5 years left on his contract), I'll be the first to admit I was on the wrong side of the fence. Too bad that isn't reciprocated.

Then why did you want it to happen?

And i still think we will look back on this trade and want to make it unless Tejada can be dealt for something else.

Finally, I would like to hear you take a definitive stance once and for all without any rhetoric about might bes or could bes:

Do you still believe that we should have traded Tejada for Santana/Aybar in July 2006?

Would you still make this trade today?

Yes and yes...Again, a few bad months by Santana this year shouldn't change that, especially since Tejada hasn't exactly done anything to make us think he is going to be the player he once was.

Not saying he can't be but the chances are better Ervin Santana bounces back than Miggy IMO.

If we end up being able to trade Miggy for a better package, then great, i will say i am glad we didn't do this trade.

If we get stuck with Miggy the last few years of his contract and we never do anything and all we end up with is one draft pick, i will say we made a mistake not making this trade.

[Frobby]

If we get stuck with Miggy the last few years of his contract and we never do anything and all we end up with is one draft pick, i will say we made a mistake not making this trade.

We are a long way from that. But the bigger mistake was to sign Miggy and not follow it up with another Grade A bat at a power position.

[PaulFolk]

Well, here is what Bedard himself had to say:

Thanks very much, Frobby. Good find. That pretty much confirms what I suspected-- Bedard will stay if the money is right. If it's not, he won't. Folks are making this more complicated than it needs to be.

[AgentOrange]

Sources suggesting Bedard is eager to bolt: 1

Sources suggesting Bedard is eager to stay: 0

Whoops, you might want to re work your numbers...

Sources suggesting Bedard is eager to bolt : 1

Bedard HIMSELF saying he would stay for the right money : 1

The bottom number holds a little more weight than the top, but you can call it a tie if you would like.

[osfan83]

Whoops, you might want to re work your numbers...

Sources suggesting Bedard is eager to bolt : 1

Bedard HIMSELF saying he would stay for the right money : 1

The bottom number holds a little more weight than the top, but you can call it a tie if you would like.

Yes because players never say things like " I would love to stay here" when they don't mean it.

What's he going to say, "I'm counting down the days until I get out of this hell hole."?

[PaulFolk]

Yes because players never say things like " I would love to stay here" when they don't mean it.

What's he going to say, "I'm counting down the days until I get out of this hell hole."?

What reason is there to believe he's lying? I'd put a lot more stock into words straight out of Bedard's mouth than in third-hand speculation from an unknown source.

[osfan83]

What reason is there to believe he's lying? I'd put a lot more stock into words straight out of Bedard's mouth than in third-hand speculation from an unknown source.

Not saying "I know he's lying", but ask most players who are currently under contract with a team if they like playing there and would resign, most would reply the way Bedard did, whether they meant it or not.

[AgentOrange]

Not saying "I know he's lying", but ask most players who are currently under contract with a team if they like playing there and would resign, most would reply the way Bedard did, whether they meant it or not.

Ok, so basically you are speculating that he was full of it when he said that.

Right on.

[Sports Guy]

You've got the wrong guy. I was clearly against this trade last year. I wrote that I didn't like it early and often prior to and after the trade deadline. I started new threads about it in April this year.

I don't know what to say at this point other than I completely disagree. Santana has terrible home/road splits for three straight years. He now can't even get guys out at home. His HR rate is very bad and getting worse.

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/splits?playerId=6280

Aybar looks to be a borderline utility player right now with 548 OPS in 147 at bats this year. His slugging percentage is 268, lol

http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/players/profile?playerId=6522

I came out opposed to this trade last year and now I am thanking God we didn't make the move. I can't believe you would still do it today. WOW

And i can't believe you think Miggy is going to bounce back to an 850ish hitter at this point.

I also can't believe that you don't see that a few bad months shouldn't kill the value of 24 year olds who have immense talent and a lot of upside.

I also can't believe that you don't see how that would have given us more depth to make further deals.

[osfan83]

Ok, so basically you are speculating that he was full of it when he said that.

Right on.

I think he gave the standard athlete answer to that question.

If the O's over pay, I think he might resign, all things being equal my gut tells me he will opt to play for a winner. If the O's are widely considered a playoff team by 2009, then the odds are better he will stay without significatly overpaying.

I think there is no way in hell he signs an extention until 2009 unless we throw crazy money at him.

[Sports Guy]

The post above is in the middle of page 7 and it is the post I quoted in my original response. These stats seem pretty self explanatory to me and they don't focus on this year at all.

I also see a progression of DCab getting worse every year(using FIP) and Santana being bad this year but slightly better before.

You also are neglecting age difference as well.

[Sports Guy]

BTW, Santana has had a command rate of 2:1 every year, including this one.

His K rate is over 7 this year...It has been in the low to mid 6's prior to this year, so that is improving.

The problem with Santana this year(much like DCab) is a horrendous HR rate.

That is where his issue lies. His HR rate last year was ok but the other 2 years of his career, it hasn't been good.

So that is obviously something he needs to work on...reducing the flyballs.

He also doesn't have the walk issues DCab has...His BB rate for his career is 3.19.

So, the K's are getting better and the walks are solid.....He is 17 months younger than DCab as well.

I think there is a very good chance Santana has a better career than DCab does, at least as a starter.