O’s 17th in payroll but 29th in wins since 2007

[Beef Supreme]

31 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I don’t want to denigrate that 2012 team. They had a huge amount of luck, but by the time they added Manny and McLouth they were a damned good team. And 93 wins is nothing to sneeze at.  
Math tells you that most fan bases should enjoy a stretch of five years that includes three playoff appearances, a division title and no sub-.500 seasons. But it shouldn’t stand out as the only oasis in a 23-year stretch.   

Not sure that "math" tells us anything like that. Maybe talent does. But between injuries and free agency, even talent doesn't guarantee that a good 5-year stretch can't include sub-.500 seasons. Ask the Red Sox fan base:

2016Boston Red Sox .574 1st of 5--Lost ALDS
2015Boston Red Sox .481 5th of 5
2014Boston Red Sox.438 5th of 5
2013Boston Red Sox .599 1st of 5--Won WS 
2012Boston Red Sox .426 5th of 5 

Results like these are about as wildly uncommon as they get. But everyone of us would love that rollercoaster ride!

[spiritof66]

11 minutes ago, Camden_yardbird said:

There is one constant over that period and until it is gone I hold no hope.

I edited a similar comment out of a recent post because I've said it so many times in the past, and there's not a damn thing any of us can do about it. But I don't se how any reasonable can doubt it. 

How about an example?

If you add the Orioles' 2021 payroll of $65 million and a WAG projection of a $72 million payroll for 2022  (2021 payroll x 110%) to the $1,343 mm cited in the OP as the team's payroll for 2007-2020, the total is about $1,480 mm for 16 seasons (2007-2022).

Chris Davis came to the Orioles in a midseason 2011 trade, so he will have been on the Oriole payroll for 11+ of those 16 seasons. I'm ignoring his salary for part of 2011. When you add his salary for 2012 through 2015 ($480,000, $3.3 mm,  $10.35 mm, $12 mm) to his $161 million contract extension for 2016 through 2022, the total is $187 million.

That is, Chris Davis's salary for 2012 through 2022 represents about 12.6 percent of the team's payroll -- 187 divided by 1,480 -- for the 16-year period from 2007 through 2022 (including my guess at 2022 payroll), which period includes over four years when he wasn't even on the team. (I'm sure that I made a mistake or two here. I may have added wrong or mis-copied a data point. If you were doing this right, you'd convert the payrolls and salaries in today's dollars. Sorry.)

I dislike intensely the term "his own worst enemy," but it sure fits Peter Angelos's ownership of the Orioles. 

[Can_of_corn]

4 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

Not sure that "math" tells us anything like that. Maybe talent does. But between injuries and free agency, even talent doesn't guarantee that a good 5-year stretch can't include sub-.500 seasons. Ask the Red Sox fan base:

2016Boston Red Sox .574 1st of 5--Lost ALDS
2015Boston Red Sox .481 5th of 5
2014Boston Red Sox.438 5th of 5
2013Boston Red Sox .599 1st of 5--Won WS 
2012Boston Red Sox .426 5th of 5 

Results like these are about as wildly uncommon as they get. But everyone of us would love that rollercoaster ride!

If that 2015 team had lost one more game so many folks would have to change their arguments.

Who, at the time, would have thought that "meaningless" five game winning streak to end the season would end up so important?

Folks act like the 2015 team was good, they weren't.

 

[Beef Supreme]

23 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

If that 2015 team had lost one more game so many folks would have to change their arguments.

Who, at the time, would have thought that "meaningless" five game winning streak to end the season would end up so important?

Folks act like the 2015 team was good, they weren't.

They were good. They were less than very good.

Amazing how much better the same guys were with Nelson Cruz in the lineup over Travis Snider/Gerardo Parra (not to belabor the "they should have signed Cruz" point).

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

They were good. They were less than very good.

Amazing how much better the same guys were with Nelson Cruz in the lineup over Travis Snider/Gerardo Parra (not to belabor the "they should have signed Cruz" point).

I'll disagree.  They were a team that went on a late season winning streak to hit .500.

I'll give you average, since they did end up at 500.

[Philip]

27 minutes ago, Beef Supreme said:

They were good. They were less than very good.

Amazing how much better the same guys were with Nelson Cruz in the lineup over Travis Snider/Gerardo Parra (not to belabor the "they should have signed Cruz" point).

Imagine the pitching staff with Zack Davies in the rotation

[Aristotelian]

We'd be a lot closer to where we should be without the Davis contract. 

[Sports Guy]

Need to get rid of this family.

[foxfield]

To be 29th when you realize they were near the top for a five year span really masks the smell. 
 

That is some stellar suckitude. 

[Frobby]

6 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

If that 2015 team had lost one more game so many folks would have to change their arguments.

Who, at the time, would have thought that "meaningless" five game winning streak to end the season would end up so important?

Folks act like the 2015 team was good, they weren't.

 

While that team did need that year ending streak to reach .500, they actually underperformed their Pythagorean record by a couple of games.   They certainly were a decent team.   Good might be an overstatement.    The corner OF spots were a hot mess that year.