Adley Rutschman 2021

[jabba72]

Just now, Can_of_corn said:

Today's game is about OBP and power, not batting average.

Not like he's striking out a ton.  I haven't looked at his BABIP but I'm betting it's low.

AR is better at those things but still I think his BA is a bit low for a prospect of his caliber.

[Frobby]

18 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

Today's game is about OBP and power, not batting average.

Not like he's striking out a ton.  I haven't looked at his BABIP but I'm betting it's low.

I believe it’s .290.

65 H - 14 HR = 51 hits on balls in play

236 AB - 14 HR - 46 K’s = 176 balls in play

51/176 = .290

Pretty normalish.   

[MurphDogg]

Keith Law released his updated top 50 prospect list today. He has Adley at #1.

Quote

I don’t think this is really debatable at this point; Rutschman is a plus defensive catcher who is hitting .268/.394/.472, with just one fewer walk than strikeout, in Double A, despite coming into the year with just 130 pro at-bats. There’s no real reason to keep him at that level at this point, and if the Orioles were trying to win this year, they’d probably have him in the majors already. I’d advocate for a September call-up just for developmental reasons, since we’ve seen plenty of good hitting prospects struggle at first with big-league pitching. With this power/patience package, even if he doesn’t always hit for average, he still has an everyday floor, with a chance for some down-ballot MVP years thanks to that 30 homer upside. 

He was an outlier in that he didn't have Adley #2 going into the year. He had him at #6, behind Franco, Gore, Pache, Kelenic and Pearson.

He has Grayson Rodriguez at #29, noting that the O's haven't unleashed the full Grayson, not allowing him to go a third time through the order or exceed 83 pitches.

[Can_of_corn]

Just now, Frobby said:

I believe it’s .290.

65 H - 14 HR = 51 hits on balls in play

236 AB - 14 HR - 46 K’s = 176 balls in play

51/176 = .290

Pretty normalish.   

Thanks, I'd looked it up on Fangraphs after I posted.  So a hair low but within normal range.

I'm still not worried about batting average.  Sure it's great and all but I'm more worried about other things.

What I really don't get is the people worried about his CS percentage.  Do we even know if the guys on Bowie's staff can hold runners?

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law released his update top 50 prospect list today. He has Adley at #1.

He was an outlier in that he didn't have Adley #2 going into the year. He had him at #6, behind Franco, Gore, Pache, Kelenic and Pearson.

What an interesting write-up.  I wonder how often the #1 overall guy is projected to be at the "chance for some down-ballot MVP years" level?

[LTO's]

48 minutes ago, LookinUp said:

I don't think most people think he won't be very good. I just see a number like 70, comps to Guerrero and Tatis and Acuna, and don't see it. 

Now if you, or fangraphs, is saying that it's total value, and that his defense and positional adjustments are a larger proportion of that value than it is for the other 3, I guess I can understand it a bit. However, when I think of those guys, I think primarily of guys who rake. I love the plate discipline and power, but I just don't think he'll rake like them. I sure hope he does, but I don't personally think he will.

He doesn’t have to rake like Tatis and Vlad Jr because he has significantly more defensive value than them. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that he has a stat line like Acuna has with similar defensive value and that’s good for a 70 grade. I personally think at his peak he’s going to have a floor of 30 home runs year in year out. When your carrying tools are prodigious power and an elite eye at the plate, that generally translates quite well. Wouldn’t shock me if he struggles a little initially as that seems to be the case for a lot of guys recently (including Vlad).

[Frobby]

2 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Keith Law released his update top 50 prospect list today. He has Adley at #1.

He was an outlier in that he didn't have Adley #2 going into the year. He had him at #6, behind Franco, Gore, Pache, Kelenic and Pearson.

Considering that Rutschman plays for the Orioles’ organization, he must be the most amazing prospect of all time for Law to put aside his well know hatred of and bias against the Orioles and rank Rutschman no. 1.   

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

He doesn’t have to rake like Tatis and Vlad Jr because he has significantly more defensive value than them. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that he has a stat line like Acuna has with similar defensive value and that’s good for a 70 grade. I personally think at his peak he’s going to have a floor of 30 home runs year in year out. When your carrying tools are prodigious power and an elite eye at the plate, that generally translates quite well. Wouldn’t shock me if he struggles a little initially as that seems to be the case for a lot of guys recently (including Vlad).

I think 30 home run floor depends on how often he plays at 1B/DH.  I don't think he's going to get enough at bats at catcher for that to happen in today's game.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

Considering that Rutschman plays for the Orioles’ organization, he must be the most amazing prospect of all time for Law to put aside his well know hatred of and bias against the Orioles and rank Rutschman no. 1.   

[MurphDogg]

11 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What an interesting write-up.  I wonder how often the #1 overall guy is projected to be at the "chance for some down-ballot MVP years" level?

Catchers rarely win MVPs, and don't often get votes. There have been 2 catchers that have won MVPs since 2000, Mauer in 2009 and Posey in 2012.

Mauer received MVP votes in 5 seasons, Posey in 6, Yadier Molina in 5.

Some down-ballot MVP years potentially translates to top-3 catcher in the Majors for over a decade.

[LTO's]

12 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

What I really don't get is the people worried about his CS percentage.  Do we even know if the guys on Bowie's staff can hold runners?

The first game of his in Bowie that I saw in person Adley’s throw beat a runner by a good two steps. Only problem was for some reason neither Grenier nor Ortiz even attempted to cover the base. Ball went into the OF, runner moves to third and Adley is charged with an error. Can’t remember a time I’ve ever seen that in the big leagues. 

[Frobby]

10 minutes ago, LTO's said:

He doesn’t have to rake like Tatis and Vlad Jr because he has significantly more defensive value than them. I don’t think it’s out of the realm of possibility that he has a stat line like Acuna has with similar defensive value and that’s good for a 70 grade. I personally think at his peak he’s going to have a floor of 30 home runs year in year out. When your carrying tools are prodigious power and an elite eye at the plate, that generally translates quite well. Wouldn’t shock me if he struggles a little initially as that seems to be the case for a lot of guys recently (including Vlad).

Last offseason I heard a scouting type say he expected Rutschman to be offensively comparable to Mark Teixeira. That’s a pretty high bar and I set my expectations accordingly.   I thought Rutschman, who hit over .400 in college, would be a .300+ hitter with room to spare in AA.  So in that context I’ve been disappointed, even though generally happy with his OBP and power numbers.

At the same time, I’ve been waiting for a protracted 2-3 week stretch where he just gets insanely hot.   Most good hitters have that once or twice a season.  Rutschman hasn’t really had that happen, though he did hit .500 one of the early weeks of the season.  
 

[LTO's]

4 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Last offseason I heard a scouting type say he expected Rutschman to be offensively comparable to Mark Teixeira. That’s a pretty high bar and I set my expectations accordingly.   I thought Rutschman, who hit over .400 in college, would be a .300+ hitter with room to spare in AA.  So in that context I’ve been disappointed, even though generally happy with his OBP and power numbers.

At the same time, I’ve been waiting for a protracted 2-3 week stretch where he just gets insanely hot.   Most good hitters have that once or twice a season.  Rutschman hasn’t really had that happen, though he did hit .500 one of the early weeks of the season.  
 

Would you agree that it’s generally tougher for catchers to post gaudy offensive numbers? For some reason I cannot find his splits at 1B/DH but just anecdotally it seems like his offensive numbers at those positions have definitely been Teixeira level.

[wildcard]

14 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Catchers rarely win MVPs, and don't often get votes. There have been 2 catchers that have won MVPs since 2000, Mauer in 2009 and Posey in 2012.

Mauer received MVP votes in 5 seasons, Posey in 6, Yadier Molina in 5.

Some down-ballot MVP years potentially translates to top-3 catcher in the Majors for over a decade.

Mike Piazza in 2000 and 2001

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, LTO's said:

Would you agree that it’s generally tougher for catchers to post gaudy offensive numbers? For some reason I cannot find his splits at 1B/DH but just anecdotally it seems like his offensive numbers at those positions have definitely been Teixeira level.

Hard to say.  Mauer's career numbers are much better at catcher but he was younger and healthier at the time.

My guess is that the sample size of any individual season is going to be too small to gather much useful data.