Bowden looks at potential Yankee deals: Mullins to NY?

[LocoChris]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You have no confidence in our development system to develop a player yet you want to keep a player whose development almost cost him a spot in the organization and has since been turned around, at least so far?

There are some inconsistencies with that thought process.

Possibly, but for every Mullins there are about 10 Billy Rowells. Trading Mullins to NY for lottery tickets is a bad idea. 

[Frobby]

25 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I said in the offseason you wanted to hand him the job.  April and May are not part of the offseason.

And you based that off of 105 plate appearances last year.  So please, stop the over half a season stuff.

The point is, you said McKenna hasn’t proven he can hit ML pitching yet Mullins hadn’t either and you were ready to hand him the job.  Be consistent.

In the minors:

McKenna .268/.350/.389.   On average, he’s been 1-2 years younger than the league average during his MiL career.   

Mullins .265/.323/.426.   To my surprise, Mullins also was 1-2 years younger than league average on average.  

One thing I forgot (SG is going to love this) is that Mullins never played in high A.    He skipped straight from Delmarva to Bowie.   He was more than 2 years younger than league average his first year at Bowie.   He got hurt for part of that year, started at Bowie again the next season, and got promoted to Norfolk partway through.   

My gut instinct is that Mullins will the better hitter as a major leaguer in the long run.   He certainly was the better AA hitter.   McKenna’s most successful level was the one Mullins never played.  

But, we haven’t seen enough of McKenna to really know what he’s capable of.  We are getting an idea of what Mullins is capable of.




 

[wildcard]

18 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well, I said in the offseason you wanted to hand him the job.  April and May are not part of the offseason.

And you based that off of 105 plate appearances last year.  So please, stop the over half a season stuff.

The point is, you said McKenna hasn’t proven he can hit ML pitching yet Mullins hadn’t either and you were ready to hand him the job.  Be consistent.

I am more consistent than most.  I wanted Mullins in CF over the winter and still want him in CF.

[Can_of_corn]

15 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

Could also be the trading partner that wouldn't want their prospects to come back and bite them in the future. It does seem like we usually do business with the Angels, Mariners etc although it's not out of the question. We did the Andrew Miller deal with Boston, although that might be case in point of what not to do. 

But that's not logical.  You take the best offer.  If the best offer is the Yankees than you should think that, at worst, it's an even exchange.

The only reason Elias should have an issue with trading with the Yankees is if ownership is still involved.

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, LocoChris said:

Possibly, but for every Mullins there are about 10 Billy Rowells. Trading Mullins to NY for lottery tickets is a bad idea. 

This isn’t the same PD as the past and again, if they have been able to develop Mullins (who looked like he was going to be out of baseball by low), they certainly can develop far younger guys who good upside.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, Frobby said:

In the minors:

McKenna .268/.350/.389.   On average, he’s been 1-2 years younger than the league average during his MiL career.   

Mullins .265/.323/.426.   To my surprise, Mullins also was 1-2 years younger than league average on average.  

One thing I forgot (SG is going to love this) is that Mullins never played in high A.    He skipped straight from Delmarva to Bowie.   He was more than 2 years younger than league average his first year at Bowie.   He got hurt for part of that year, started at Bowie again the next season, and got promoted to Norfolk partway through.   

My gut instinct is that Mullins will the better hitter as a major leaguer in the long run.   He certainly was the better AA hitter.   McKenna’s most successful level was the one Mullins never played.  

But, we haven’t seen enough of McKenna to really know what he’s capable of.  We are getting an idea of what Mullins is capable of.




 

I think it’s likely too but I also don’t think saying he will be better hitter than McKenna is a high bar to set either.

[MurphDogg]

46 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

You are greatly overvaluing Mullins and what it would take to get a 3 WAR player.  

Putting aside (as I did) whether Mullins is a 3 WAR centerfielder, what do you think a 3 WAR centerfielder with less than 2 years of service time who will not be a Super 2 is worth in a trade? 

[Ruzious]

2 hours ago, Frobby said:

June 15, 1976: Traded by the New York Yankees: Rick Dempsey, Tippy Martinez, Rudy May, Scott McGregorand Dave Pagan to the Baltimore Orioles for Doyle Alexander, Jimmy Freeman, Elrod Hendricks, Ken Holtzman and Grant Jackson.

Enough said.

 

And that wasn't the only big "Doyle Alexander trade".  Years later, In 1987, Detroit was buying to stay in the playoffs hunt, and Atlanta was selling.  Detroit got their man for coveted minor league pitching prospect... John Smoltz.  Detroit got what they wanted - Doyle was terrific for them at age 36, but... the cost was high, lol.  If we can get the next John Smoltz, I'd be willing to trade Mullins.      

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

6 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

And that wasn't the only big "Doyle Alexander trade".  Years later, In 1987, Detroit was buying to stay in the playoffs hunt, and Atlanta was selling.  Detroit got their man for coveted minor league pitching prospect... John Smoltz.  Detroit got what they wanted - Doyle was terrific for them at age 36, but... the cost was high, lol.  If we can get the next John Smoltz, I'd be willing to trade Mullins.      

Teams don't part with top prospects as easily now. Look at Manny Machado and the return the Orioles got for him. Maybe 10 to 20 years ago the Orioles get a Walker Buehler in return for Manny instead of a package of prospects hoping that one of them becomes a star. 

[Sports Guy]

5 minutes ago, MurphDogg said:

Putting aside (as I did) whether Mullins is a 3 WAR centerfielder, what do you think a 3 WAR centerfielder with less than 2 years of service time who will not be a Super 2 is worth in a trade? 

Well there are a lot of other factors to this.

How old are they?  Mullins is 27 in October.  That is a little older and certainly is part of it.

How were they in the years leading up to that 3 WAR season?  Mullins has done very little in the majors prior to 2021.  
 

In other words, if the player was 22-25 years old and had shown he can be a 3 WAR guy in multiple seasons, that player could be worth something around what you said.

Mullins is older than that and has shown it for a few months.  

[Can_of_corn]

2 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Teams don't part with top prospects as easily now. Look at Manny Machado and the return the Orioles got for him. Maybe 10 to 20 years ago the Orioles get a Walker Buehler in return for Manny instead of a package of prospects hoping that one of them becomes a star. 

The timing of the Manny trade really hurt the return.  Just not that many teams that needed a SS/3B that could afford to add his salary.  Everyone knew the O's had to trade him.

[Sports Guy]

3 minutes ago, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

Teams don't part with top prospects as easily now. Look at Manny Machado and the return the Orioles got for him. Maybe 10 to 20 years ago the Orioles get a Walker Buehler in return for Manny instead of a package of prospects hoping that one of them becomes a star. 

The Os got plenty for a few months of Manny.  
 

Teams are definitely still dealing prospects although I do agree that they aren’t trading as much for a few month rental.  Of course, the rule that changed the comp picks helped that as well.

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 minute ago, Sports Guy said:

The Os got plenty for a few months of Manny.  
 

Teams are definitely still dealing prospects although I do agree that they aren’t trading as much for a few month rental.  Of course, the rule that changed the comp picks helped that as well.

I view the Manny trade has quantity versus quality, and when it comes to trading star players I'd rather get quality back in return. This is more on the Orioles for waiting too long to trade Manny when MLB teams don't give up top prospects for (potential) rentals now. 

[Sports Guy]

Just now, OsFanSinceThe80s said:

I view the Manny trade has quantity versus quality, and when it comes to trading star players I'd rather get quality back in return. This is more on the Orioles for waiting too long to trade Manny when MLB teams don't give up top prospects for (potential) rentals now. 

We don’t know if they got quality yet.  It’s too early to say.

Diaz was a top 40 guy when they got him.  That’s quality at the time of the deal.

[MurphDogg]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

Well there are a lot of other factors to this.

How old are they?  Mullins is 27 in October.  That is a little older and certainly is part of it.

How were they in the years leading up to that 3 WAR season?  Mullins has done very little in the majors prior to 2021.  
 

In other words, if the player was 22-25 years old and had shown he can be a 3 WAR guy in multiple seasons, that player could be worth something around what you said.

Mullins is older than that and has shown it for a few months.  

I don't think his age matters much in terms of return as he would be under team control through his age 30 season. If he was 28, it might be a factor, but he still is under team control only through his prime, not beyond it

Mullins will be on the wrong side of 30 when he hits free agency, but that is his problem, not the Orioles (or the Yankees, in this hypothetical).

As far as the other part, I am simply saying what everyone else is saying, that it only makes sense to trade Mullins if you get an offer that blows you away, one that assumes that this season is his new normal. And I agree with you that they won't get that offer, thus he won't be traded.