Don't waste the Adley, Grayson and DL years.

[Ruzious]

58 minutes ago, DrungoHazewood said:

You have no doubt that the Orioles would have looked at a 19-year-old in AAA OPSing .940 and said "we'll keep him in AAA for two more full seasons"?  I think they would have done the same thing the Braves did, send him to AAA for a month of his age 20 season, then call him up.  Maybe a bit longer if he OPS'd the same .556 he did for Gwinnett.

The Orioles have never had a 19-year-old dominate AAA, at least not in a long time.  There's a plan, but the plan changes when you have a generational talent.

C'mon Drungo.  Do you seriously think the O's would have put him in AAA at 19 years old?   

[Ruzious]

12 minutes ago, NCRaven said:

You're right, of course.  Manny skipped AAA, didn't he?

Correct, but Elias and his people weren't here in 2012.  

[Frobby]

2 hours ago, OrioleDog said:

As DJ Stewart has hit credibly and gone slip and slide on the grass, I too have started to see Stewart and Mancini linked in a way I haven't really before.

Frankly if 2022's team can only cost $50M, i think I think giving Stewart most of Mancini's role at Arb1 cost and using that $8M-$10M (depending on how many RBI's last 60% of season, naturally) elsewhere on the roster could be better.   As ever if our forecast for 2022 is not competitive, please do Mancini the kindness of getting him to a winner next month.

I hope Mancini mashes here the next 1.5 seasons and forces Elias to consider giving him Trumbo money, but I don't know from here if for 2023 he is likely then to do any better than CJ Cron did this past offseason.

I like Stewart despite his flaws, but he’s nowhere near the hitter Mancini is.  Yes his OBP is decent, but his BA is low and he strikes out a lot.   He’s fine as a role player but I don’t see him hitting well enough to earn 500 PA while playing DH or manning a corner OF spot.  OPS+ of 102 and wRC+ of 103 isn’t good enough to be a starter at those spots if your defense there is below average.   

[LTO's]

9 minutes ago, Ruzious said:

C'mon Drungo.  Do you seriously think the O's would have put him in AAA at 19 years old?   

There hasn't even been one and a half minor league seasons under this new regime. I find it so strange that so many people are so sure of how things are going to happen despite hardly any evidence. Same with the draft. 

[Ohfan67]

1 minute ago, LTO's said:

There hasn't even been one and a half minor league seasons under this new regime. I find it so strange that so many people are so sure of how things are going to happen despite hardly any evidence. Same with the draft. 

Amen. The team sucks so bad right now that some of these threads are overflowing with negativity. The Orioles minor league system has never looked so good (in the free agency/current era). Players drafted by the previous administration and by Elias are doing great. The future hasn't looked this good in basically forever. Hopefully this is the last truly bleak/nearly hopeless year at the ML level. I don't think the Os will win a ton more games next year, but there should be a lot less bleak. 

[Aristotelian]

25 minutes ago, Frobby said:

I like Stewart despite his flaws, but he’s nowhere near the hitter Mancini is.  Yes his OBP is decent, but his BA is low and he strikes out a lot.   He’s fine as a role player but I don’t see him hitting well enough to earn 500 PA while playing DH or manning a corner OF spot.  OPS+ of 102 and wRC+ of 103 isn’t good enough to be a starter at those spots if your defense there is below average.   

The question is not whether Stewart is as good as Mancini, but rather whether Stewart plus $10-$12M is as good as Mancini.

[wildcard]

12 minutes ago, Aristotelian said:

The question is not whether Stewart is as good as Mancini, but rather whether Stewart plus $10-$12M is as good as Mancini.

So far Stewart looks like a 4th or 5th OF.    The question on whether Mancini is worth 10m next  season should be answered with who the O's can get that will be as productive has he projects to be.

Next season Cobb 10m in off the books.   Severino 1.8m is gone and replaced with Adley 570K. Matt Harvey, Galvis, Valaika, Franco all gone.  Its time to spend some money of some good players.

[foxfield]

On 6/15/2021 at 3:13 PM, Sports Guy said:

Yes because you have a false belief that they are pocketing money and plan to spend it later.  It’s crazy to think that any team is doing that, especially this one.

And the draft is a complete crapshoot with very little differences in career WAR once you get past the first few picks.  
 

It’s really astonishing to me that anyone is still fine with them tanking and saying, who cares about winning.  I really don’t get that mentality at all.  The idea that they somehow have to be bad to do everything they should be doing is just wrong.

The standard that you are applying is simply yours...It's not the Orioles.  You say people are fine with tanking and that they are pocketing money.  That is simply false.  The Orioles have invested significant dollars into developing the very infrastructure that will need to be the base upon which a successful future is built.

You consistently state that the Orioles could be better at the MLB level if they wanted too.  When you say things like that you fuel people here who seemingly do not understand baseball or business.  I know you do.

The Orioles could be better at the MLB level by doing one of three things:

1) They could invest dollars in FA contracts.  2) They could trade talent to acquire MLB talent.  Both of these items require investment of resources that prolong the rebuild not speed it up.  These options are literally the options the Orioles mangled in the 80's and 90's and while we had small periods of success, the franchise sucked bad enough to hire a GM to totally rebuild and tear everything down.  3)  They can bring up young players.  This had already started and should continue.  The pace should even please you.  The players you call for are either ready or darn close...At this point it's just staging their arrival later this year or early next.

The Orioles are getting very close to being a competitive team.  We all want them to win.  And while tanking has allowed for high drafts, it is reasonable to expect that next year is the last time we are in the top 5 or so for awhile.  I would hope that as the Orioles move through this process that in the future we will be able to make more favorable comparisons with the Rays.  Maybe trading the Mancinis of the team for a future Cy Young.  I really don't know.

But insisting that the Orioles spend when they have explicitly said that they are not and judging the Major League success or lack thereof when they have explicitly said that is not their goal is simply wishful thinking and it riles up folks here who clearly don't know better.

But no one says they have to lose and it seems to me that they are getting pretty close to that being explicitly NOT the goal.  So let's keep watching this season and I think we will see some of the young players getting ready for the show.  I don't know exactly how good next year will be...but I expect that we will be different and expect this rebuild to have a foundation that is sustainable.  THAT has been the goal over the last few years.  NOT pocketing money and NOT trying to lose.  I really don't think either of those things have happened.

Either way, you inspire good thought and I always appreciate the dialogue.

[milbest77]

People I talk to in life and those posting on this board seem to think 2022 is the year this team starts “contending.” Won’t happen. We are banking on three guys to come up and magically spark this team into contention. What if one or all of them bust? Then what? I’m sure people will be calling for Elias’ head if things aren’t trending up in a year or two. Everyone needs to temper expectations, especially when hinging the future on just a couple of guys. 

[Sports Guy]

16 minutes ago, foxfield said:

The standard that you are applying is simply yours...It's not the Orioles.  You say people are fine with tanking and that they are pocketing money.  That is simply false.  The Orioles have invested significant dollars into developing the very infrastructure that will need to be the base upon which a successful future is built.

You consistently state that the Orioles could be better at the MLB level if they wanted too.  When you say things like that you fuel people here who seemingly do not understand baseball or business.  I know you do.

The Orioles could be better at the MLB level by doing one of three things:

1) They could invest dollars in FA contracts.  2) They could trade talent to acquire MLB talent.  Both of these items require investment of resources that prolong the rebuild not speed it up.  These options are literally the options the Orioles mangled in the 80's and 90's and while we had small periods of success, the franchise sucked bad enough to hire a GM to totally rebuild and tear everything down.  3)  They can bring up young players.  This had already started and should continue.  The pace should even please you.  The players you call for are either ready or darn close...At this point it's just staging their arrival later this year or early next.

The Orioles are getting very close to being a competitive team.  We all want them to win.  And while tanking has allowed for high drafts, it is reasonable to expect that next year is the last time we are in the top 5 or so for awhile.  I would hope that as the Orioles move through this process that in the future we will be able to make more favorable comparisons with the Rays.  Maybe trading the Mancinis of the team for a future Cy Young.  I really don't know.

But insisting that the Orioles spend when they have explicitly said that they are not and judging the Major League success or lack thereof when they have explicitly said that is not their goal is simply wishful thinking and it riles up folks here who clearly don't know better.

But no one says they have to lose and it seems to me that they are getting pretty close to that being explicitly NOT the goal.  So let's keep watching this season and I think we will see some of the young players getting ready for the show.  I don't know exactly how good next year will be...but I expect that we will be different and expect this rebuild to have a foundation that is sustainable.  THAT has been the goal over the last few years.  NOT pocketing money and NOT trying to lose.  I really don't think either of those things have happened.

Either way, you inspire good thought and I always appreciate the dialogue.

First of all, the money you talk about investing into the infrastructure is peanuts.  It costs nothing, in the grand scheme of things, to do those things.  So acting like the Os are saving all of this money to put into that stuff is factually incorrect.

Secondly, the Orioles are absolutely choosing to lose and they don’t have to.

Im going to say this again.  The best organizations in the sport spend on infrastructure, spend on the draft, spend on Intl FAs and do all of this while winning a bunch of games every year and picking best the bottom of the first round.

You do not have to lose on purpose to do those things.  You do not have to be cheap and forgo winning to do those things.  That’s not an opinion, it’s an undeniable fact.  
 

Frobbys argument is basically that the team is saving money that they aren’t spending and putting into some account to spend later.  Zero chance that’s true.  Do you think they took the saved money from Davis’ contract last year and put it in a safe for a rainy day?  No of course not.  It’s crazy to think that.  
 

They are simply deciding not to spend money and not to win.  It’s that simple.  Its not up for debate, it is their publicly stated goal.  And to me, it’s total bs and I have no idea why the fan base goes along with it.

 

[LTO's]

5 minutes ago, foxfield said:

But insisting that the Orioles spend when they have explicitly said that they are not and judging the Major League success or lack thereof when they have explicitly said that is not their goal is simply wishful thinking and it riles up folks here who clearly don't know better.

This is not the worst part of this argument. The worst part is he cannot name specific players the Orioles could have signed/traded for in the past year that would've made them competitive this year. If you present it, like he does with all of his arguments, like it's a fact it doesn't just make it so. Not only did it not make sense for the Orioles to sign FAs outside of the org in an attempt to be competitive this year, it also just wasn't possible. FA pitchers worth anything looking for a one year prove it deal were never going to sign with Baltimore. It's not an attractive place to pitch even if the team is good. I suspect the same would be true of bigger name position players like Justin Turner and Marcus Semien. Even if the Os put out a competitive offer, why on earth would those guys play here right now? That leaves you with fringe level guys that you are most likely overpaying for around replacement level production with little to no shot of being traded. Not only does that not make you good in the long run, it doesn't make you better in the short term either. 

[foxfield]

4 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

First of all, the money you talk about investing into the infrastructure is peanuts.  It costs nothing, in the grand scheme of things, to do those things.  So acting like the Os are saving all of this money to put into that stuff is factually incorrect.

Secondly, the Orioles are absolutely choosing to lose and they don’t have to.

Im going to say this again.  The best organizations in the sport spend on infrastructure, spend on the draft, spend on Intl FAs and do all of this while winning a bunch of games every year and picking best the bottom of the first round.

You do not have to lose on purpose to do those things.  You do not have to be cheap and forgo winning to do those things.  That’s not an opinion, it’s an undeniable fact.  
 

Frobbys argument is basically that the team is saving money that they aren’t spending and putting into some account to spend later.  Zero chance that’s true.  Do you think they took the saved money from Davis’ contract last year and put it in a safe for a rainy day?  No of course not.  It’s crazy to think that.  
 

They are simply deciding not to spend money and not to win.  It’s that simple.  Its not up for debate, it is their publicly stated goal.  And to me, it’s total bs and I have no idea why the fan base goes along with it.

 

Straw Man....

For the first bold part....The Orioles have literally gone a quarter century without investing in foreign players.  They aren't peanuts behind, they are a freaking generation behind.  I don't know how many millions you think the current ML team should be spending, but if it is intelligent, it is less than what is being invested for the first time ever in infrastructure.

For the second...The Orioles used to be one of those organizations.  They are not.  And they have tried several variations that look like what you propose now...It simply hasn't worked.  It's not that it can't be done, its that it can't be done until you build something that can be sustained.  You simply want to skip the "peanuts" because peanut butter in your world, comes from a choice.  Well Choosy Mothers choose JIf is a great saying, but only because they have been making peanut butter since before you were born. The Orioles...?  Skippy Reduced Fat.  

Thankfully the Orioles are changing.  And soon, it will be time to judge how that has gone.  But not putting a better team on the field for you this year is not a valid criticism.  IMHO

 

 

[SteveA]

24 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

  

They are simply deciding not to spend money and not to win.  It’s that simple.  Its not up for debate, it is their publicly stated goal.  And to me, it’s total bs and I have no idea why the fan base goes along with it.

 

Some of us are "going along with it" because we lived through 14 consecutive years where the team was TRYING to win each year, sometimes spending quite a bit of money to do so, and they couldn't even break .500.   At one point, while claiming they were trying to win, they tied the major league record by getting worse for 5 consecutive years.   (And the team that set that record originally started with a .600 team and then got worse 5 straight years; the Orioles managed to start with a sub-.500 team and get worse for 6 straight years, an almost impossible to believe feat).

That experience left us willing to try something different.   Where we build from the ground up, strengthen the farm system, and the player development system.   And that we don't spend money on major league payroll until it can literally make the difference in contending or not.   I am willing not to spend a dime to increase this year's team, or last year's team, from 65 to 75 wins, because losing is losing.   So yes, I am "going along with it".  

Now am I concerned that they won't spend when spending can make a real difference?   Damn right I am, and I have said so many times on here.   If this is all part of a scheme to cut payroll and pump profits into Angelos' pockets until they sell the team, and that they don't intend to spend when it matters -- I will be extremely disappointed and upset.   And every year, every month, brings us closer and closer to the point where there is enough talent reaching the major league level to think about contending.   I will be holding my breath to see if they actually spend money on payroll then.   Do they extend young players long before they can become free agents?   Once they have a team with only one or two holes, do they spend on free agents to fill those gaps?   Do they tender arbitration to guys who are good if they don't have someone as good or better waiting in the wings?

I don't think we have reached any of those inflection points yet.   Some of them are creeping closer.   But so far, I don't think that their stinginess has led them to pass on anyone who would be a useful part of a contending Oriole team.   

[Can_of_corn]

49 minutes ago, wildcard said:

So far Stewart looks like a 4th or 5th OF.    The question on whether Mancini is worth 10m next  season should be answered with who the O's can get that will be as productive has he projects to be.

Next season Cobb 10m in off the books.   Severino 1.8m is gone and replaced with Adley 570K. Matt Harvey, Galvis, Valaika, Franco all gone.  Its time to spend some money of some good players.

Or it's time for the owners to make even higher profits.

I don't think they sign anyone to a significant free agent deal next year.

They'll blame labor uncertainty if anyone in the media bothers to do their job and ask.

[7Mo]

57 minutes ago, foxfield said:

The standard that you are applying is simply yours...It's not the Orioles.  You say people are fine with tanking and that they are pocketing money.  That is simply false.  The Orioles have invested significant dollars into developing the very infrastructure that will need to be the base upon which a successful future is built.

You consistently state that the Orioles could be better at the MLB level if they wanted too.  When you say things like that you fuel people here who seemingly do not understand baseball or business.  I know you do.

The Orioles could be better at the MLB level by doing one of three things:

1) They could invest dollars in FA contracts.  2) They could trade talent to acquire MLB talent.  Both of these items require investment of resources that prolong the rebuild not speed it up.  These options are literally the options the Orioles mangled in the 80's and 90's and while we had small periods of success, the franchise sucked bad enough to hire a GM to totally rebuild and tear everything down.  3)  They can bring up young players.  This had already started and should continue.  The pace should even please you.  The players you call for are either ready or darn close...At this point it's just staging their arrival later this year or early next.

The Orioles are getting very close to being a competitive team.  We all want them to win.  And while tanking has allowed for high drafts, it is reasonable to expect that next year is the last time we are in the top 5 or so for awhile.  I would hope that as the Orioles move through this process that in the future we will be able to make more favorable comparisons with the Rays.  Maybe trading the Mancinis of the team for a future Cy Young.  I really don't know.

But insisting that the Orioles spend when they have explicitly said that they are not and judging the Major League success or lack thereof when they have explicitly said that is not their goal is simply wishful thinking and it riles up folks here who clearly don't know better.

But no one says they have to lose and it seems to me that they are getting pretty close to that being explicitly NOT the goal.  So let's keep watching this season and I think we will see some of the young players getting ready for the show.  I don't know exactly how good next year will be...but I expect that we will be different and expect this rebuild to have a foundation that is sustainable.  THAT has been the goal over the last few years.  NOT pocketing money and NOT trying to lose.  I really don't think either of those things have happened.

Either way, you inspire good thought and I always appreciate the dialogue.

Excellent post.

IMO, next year will be much more enjoyable because of the young kids being brought up. The record may not be great but to me, it's a lot more enjoyable to watch a young prospect busting it even if it only leads to 70-75 wins. At least it will be enjoyable to see the first pieces of the puzzle start their careers.

Then 2023 should see a big jump.