ESPN: 1 player every team should trade or trade for

[spiritof66]

1 hour ago, LTO's said:

It's pretty obvious that ownership meddled in a few baseball ops decisions under DD. That still doesn't mean he was a good GM. He mostly wasn't. It is unjustifiable how bad things got in late 2017/2018 and to top it all off his deadline trades that year were horrible. Before that, I do not think anyone forced him to trade Eduardo Rodriguez for a rental reliever or Zach Davies for Parra. It's been widely reported that Peter vetoed a Britton trade in 2017. If DD had his way he would've gotten Colin Moran back who is a replacement level player at best. He signed Ubaldo and forfeited the 14th overall pick for Yovani Gallardo.

I understand the bar is very low in Baltimore and he presided over the first playoff team in 15 years, but we won ONE playoff series under his regime. That's it. The 2012 team was a great story but was sort of fluky. Every other team outside of 2014 was thoroughly mediocre. The whole "Best record in the AL over 5 years" narrative used to infuriate me. If the current FO matches DD's level of success here it will be considered a pretty big disappointment to me even with the caveat that they are coming into a catastrophically worse situation than DD did. 

My point isn't that Duquette was a good GM. I can see both sides of that question, and to me evaluating his performance gets tricky because it's not clear what decisions he made and what decisions were made by others.

My point is that the rot that put this team in the predicament it's in came only in small part  from Duquette's moves, even his bad ones, and mainly from the ignorant, meddling, selfish, megalomaniac owner, who thought he knew as much as or more about building a team than anyone in his employ but really knew close to nothing at all, and who drove the strategies, if not all the individual decisions, to sacrifice the long-term future of the franchise to serve his single-minded objective of getting to his first World Series and avoid having his ownership go down in history as one of MLB's most dismal, even after that objective became totally unrealistic. 

[wildcard]

2 hours ago, Sports Guy said:

Exactly…now, as this article says, some of those moves haven’t worked out but they are well reasoned moves and it’s just them showing that there are a lot of ways to build a team.

Wildcard is basically saying, you can only build a team one way.  That’s wrong.

I didn't say that.  Way to twist my words.

What  I said is I don't think the O's can trade Mancini, Means or Santander and get back talent that is as good for the O's 2022 team.  The talent in return might help long term but not be as good in 2022.

[SteveA]

1 hour ago, osravensfan78 said:

I’ve heard this a few times about the Duquette tenure, but I’ve never fully understood it. I don’t see Elias with these same obstacles that people refer to. Why do you think that is? Do you think the organization changed or was Duquette not given as much power as Elias? I’ve never heard of anyone getting in Elias’ way of a trade. This is an honest question and not made to take anything away from your post. Just curious what people think. 

1) Peter Angelos was still making major decisions during most of the Duquette tenure.   That isn't the case for Elias.   And some people such as Brady Anderson had his ear and could influence his decisions.    Angelos also became disenchanted with Duquette after DD flirted with leaving for Toronto.   Angelos is pretty much out of it now.

2) Buck Showalter had some degree of power/influence over club decisions as well.   Certainly more pull in the organization than Hyde has now.   I don't know if anything was codified, but I don't think Duquette could ignore what Buck wanted, he had to get some level of buy-in.  

Pretty sure Elias has free rein to do what he wants, within a certain budget.   And as long as he stays in budget, I don't think he has to clear anything with anyone or get any kind of consensus in the organization to get something done.

[Frobby]

5 hours ago, wildcard said:

If Duquette turned a 13 year loser into a winner over a winter then Elias can add the pieces he needed to  make the most of the Adley/Grayson/DL window in 2022.

We discussed this already.  If the 2022 Orioles improved as much as the 2012 team, they’d probably still be several games under .500.    The 2011 team was much better than the current Orioles are.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Frobby said:

We discussed this already.  If the 2022 Orioles improved as much as the 2012 team, they’d probably still be several games under .500.    The 2011 team was much better than the current Orioles are.

Yea, but the 2011 team was trying to win.

[wildcard]

19 minutes ago, Frobby said:

We discussed this already.  If the 2022 Orioles improved as much as the 2012 team, they’d probably still be several games under .500.    The 2011 team was much better than the current Orioles are.

I'd take 82 wins in 2022.  That is a winning season.   Shows improvement. Sets the team up to contend in 2023.

[Sports Guy]

52 minutes ago, wildcard said:

I didn't say that.  Way to twist my words.

What  I said is I don't think the O's can trade Mancini, Means or Santander and get back talent that is as good for the O's 2022 team.  The talent in return might help long term but not be as good in 2022.

But they don’t have to get talent back in those trades to be successful in 2022.  They can acquire talent in other ways to help the 2022 team.

And yes, you are essentially saying that.  You have said repeatedly that this team can’t be good next year if they trade Mancini and Santander.  That is another way of saying, we need those guys to be good.  You have said we need Mancinis offense.  So yes, in a roundabout way, that’s exactly what you are saying…that we can only build a good team one way.

[wildcard]

8 minutes ago, Sports Guy said:

But they don’t have to get talent back in those trades to be successful in 2022.  They can acquire talent in other ways to help the 2022 team.

And yes, you are essentially saying that.  You have said repeatedly that this team can’t be good next year if they trade Mancini and Santander.  That is another way of saying, we need those guys to be good.  You have said we need Mancinis offense.  So yes, in a roundabout way, that’s exactly what you are saying…that we can only build a good team one way.

Your twisted words, not mine.

[Sports Guy]

2 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Your twisted words, not mine.

Yes they are my words..representing your words and your thoughts, of which you have shared on here.

 

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, wildcard said:

I didn't say that.  Way to twist my words.

What  I said is I don't think the O's can trade Mancini, Means or Santander and get back talent that is as good for the O's 2022 team.  The talent in return might help long term but not be as good in 2022.

Wildcard, I love your enthusiasm and optimism. You're sold on the idea that the 2022 team will be competitive. I'm not going to argue with you but I think if you start looking at the minor league system a little closer, that points to 2023. The bulk of guys who should make a difference are farther away than 2022. 

You really like Mancini. I don't blame you. But this team is being stripped to the bare bones and rebuilt. Mancini should bring back 1-2 good pieces to help long term. To me, "long term" means 2023 or 2024, not 2026. 

Your group of guys, DL Hall, Rodriguez, Adley, will be here during the 2022 season, but not likely to start the year. And that's just not enough. We need a dozen more. We need solid contributions from some of Bradish, Jones, Rizer, Grenier, Smith, Baumann, Vavra, Kremer, Zimmerman, Lowther, Akin, and several others to make a difference. And not all of those guys are going to be stars, or even above average contributors.

And there need to be 3-4 significant FA signings. If you expect those 3-4 significant FA signings this winter, I think you're going to be disappointed. I just don't think the "goal" is 2022. Nothing about what I've seen says "Elias has to make significant improvements in the major league product in 2022." I know you believe that's true, but I'm sorry to disagree with you. 

I believe Santander will be back, but not to make the 2022 team stronger. I think the decision about Santander is simply does Elias, et al believe he will have more value in 2022 than he does at trade deadline 2021 and I think the logical bet is yes, keep him and hope he builds value. 

But I believe Fry, Steward, Galvis, Sulser, Mancini, and a few others will be traded in July if a reasonable offer is made. "Reasonable" meaning how the O's value them internally. And I think there's a good chance all are gone. That won't be based on what the 2022 team looks like. It will be based on whether they are getting reasonable value back with an eye toward 2023.

Just my opinion. I understand you disagree and that's just fine. 

[OsFanSinceThe80s]

1 hour ago, SteveA said:

1) Peter Angelos was still making major decisions during most of the Duquette tenure.   That isn't the case for Elias.   And some people such as Brady Anderson had his ear and could influence his decisions.    Angelos also became disenchanted with Duquette after DD flirted with leaving for Toronto.   Angelos is pretty much out of it now.

2) Buck Showalter had some degree of power/influence over club decisions as well.   Certainly more pull in the organization than Hyde has now.   I don't know if anything was codified, but I don't think Duquette could ignore what Buck wanted, he had to get some level of buy-in.  

Pretty sure Elias has free rein to do what he wants, within a certain budget.   And as long as he stays in budget, I don't think he has to clear anything with anyone or get any kind of consensus in the organization to get something done.

@osravensfan78 - This reply by SteveA sums it up better than I could on the differences about how the Orioles make baseball decisions pre & post hiring of Elias. 

Way too many people were having a say on roster moves, and the owner meddling too much beyond approving payroll and major acquisitions involving $$$.

[wildcard]

10 hours ago, 7Mo said:

Wildcard, I love your enthusiasm and optimism. You're sold on the idea that the 2022 team will be competitive. I'm not going to argue with you but I think if you start looking at the minor league system a little closer, that points to 2023. The bulk of guys who should make a difference are farther away than 2022. 

You really like Mancini. I don't blame you. But this team is being stripped to the bare bones and rebuilt. Mancini should bring back 1-2 good pieces to help long term. To me, "long term" means 2023 or 2024, not 2026. 

Your group of guys, DL Hall, Rodriguez, Adley, will be here during the 2022 season, but not likely to start the year. And that's just not enough. We need a dozen more. We need solid contributions from some of Bradish, Jones, Rizer, Grenier, Smith, Baumann, Vavra, Kremer, Zimmerman, Lowther, Akin, and several others to make a difference. And not all of those guys are going to be stars, or even above average contributors.

And there need to be 3-4 significant FA signings. If you expect those 3-4 significant FA signings this winter, I think you're going to be disappointed. I just don't think the "goal" is 2022. Nothing about what I've seen says "Elias has to make significant improvements in the major league product in 2022." I know you believe that's true, but I'm sorry to disagree with you. 

I believe Santander will be back, but not to make the 2022 team stronger. I think the decision about Santander is simply does Elias, et al believe he will have more value in 2022 than he does at trade deadline 2021 and I think the logical bet is yes, keep him and hope he builds value. 

But I believe Fry, Steward, Galvis, Sulser, Mancini, and a few others will be traded in July if a reasonable offer is made. "Reasonable" meaning how the O's value them internally. And I think there's a good chance all are gone. That won't be based on what the 2022 team looks like. It will be based on whether they are getting reasonable value back with an eye toward 2023.

Just my opinion. I understand you disagree and that's just fine. 

Outstanding post.  Logical, sensible and well stated.     I would like to correct one point.   I think the  O's could not will be a winning team in 2022.   But there are things that Elias has to do to make that happen.

The way I see it the O's are unlikely to sign players to long term contracts of 4 or 5 years or longer.  Not even their stars.   Because those contracts are risky and often don't work out.  Elias is creating a pipeline of talent so that when a player reaches 4 1/2 to 5 years and are in line for a big contract he can trade them for prospects.   It keeps the payroll manageable which is important for a mid market team.

But that means that potential star players like Adley, Grayson and DL will only be with the O's for a short period on time.    So it is in the O's best interest to maximize those years.      It appears that these  three players are on track to be with the O's in 2022.  Depending on service time restrictions from close to the beginning of the year for Adley and Grayson with DL following soon thereafter.  This  is important to the rebuild and the future of the team.  

I don't think the rebuild goes from 50 some wins to winning the division.  There is a interim step that the O's need to shoot for in 2022.  Be a winning team.

Elias needs to surround these players with a well rounded team. He needs to keep the players that can help make the team a winner.  I think Mancini is in a position where he wants to stay and may not require a long term contract to extend him.  2 year plus an option year may keep him a Oriole.   Fry and Sulser are players I would keep in the pen next season.  I agree with trading Galvis and I have no strong feeling about Stewart.  

Elias will have to supplement the team with FAs short term contracts to win in 2022.  How many depends on how the minor league players progress.

JMO, you could be right about all this.   But I think not wasting the Adley, Grayson and DL years is important.

[Redskins Rick]

12 hours ago, SteveA said:

1) Peter Angelos was still making major decisions during most of the Duquette tenure.   That isn't the case for Elias.   And some people such as Brady Anderson had his ear and could influence his decisions.    Angelos also became disenchanted with Duquette after DD flirted with leaving for Toronto.   Angelos is pretty much out of it now.

2) Buck Showalter had some degree of power/influence over club decisions as well.   Certainly more pull in the organization than Hyde has now.   I don't know if anything was codified, but I don't think Duquette could ignore what Buck wanted, he had to get some level of buy-in.  

Pretty sure Elias has free rein to do what he wants, within a certain budget.   And as long as he stays in budget, I don't think he has to clear anything with anyone or get any kind of consensus in the organization to get something done.

1 - The Orioles won 5 years in a row, because DD didnt have Peter meddling.

2 - I dont think Buck had the influence/power you think he did. He mentioned many times during his tenue. He did have conversations with DD at times, but it was his job to play the players on the roster, which the GM sets.

I dont think Elias can do anything with Davis unless approved by the Angelos brothers. IMO

 

[7Mo]

22 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Outstanding post.  Logical, sensible and well stated.     I would like to correct one point.   I think the  O's could not will be a winning team in 2022.   But there are things that Elias has to do to make that happen.

The way I see it the O's are unlikely to sign players to long term contracts of 4 or 5 years or longer.  Not even their stars.   Because those contracts are risky and often don't work out.  Elias is creating a pipeline of talent so that when a player reaches 4 1/2 to 5 years and are in line for a big contract he can trade them for prospects.   It keeps the payroll manageable which is important for a mid market team.

But that means that potential star players like Adley, Grayson and DL will only be with the O's for a short period on time.    So it is in the O's best interest to maximize those years.      It appears that these  three players are on track to be with the O's in 2022.  Depending on service time restrictions from close to the beginning of the year for Adley and Grayson with DL following soon thereafter.  This  is important to the rebuild and the future of the team.  

 

Good post but let me argue with you about one point.

When you say the O's are unlikely to sign even their stars to contracts of 4-5 years or longer, that makes sense. We talk so much about the Rays on this board. That's their model and they execute it very, very well. But I think we need to remember that that's not the background Elias came through. The Cards have changed their operations significantly since Elias was there but when he was, they did lock up guys. The Astros have tried to keep the majority of their core. And notwithstanding the doubts of many about whether the brothers will spend money, the O's will clearly have money available if they choose to lock guys up.

I would guess the O's eventually wind up some kind of hybrid of all of those. The "pipeline of talent" is something we have heard enough that I think Elias will always churn the roster, and deal most before any kind of long term contract. But I think there may be exceptions. Probably not many. 

But remember, when you're trading a talent, Means as an example, the return should help quickly. When the Rays traded Blake Snell to the Padres, they got 4 players back headlined by Luis Patina who has and will pitch at the MLB level this year. Of the other 3, one was Cole Wilcox who was a third round pick but mocked as a first rounder for a while. 

To this point, Elias hasn't traded a high value guy. You're just not going to get a big return for Bundy, Iglesias, Cobb, etc. But when those trades become Mullins or Means, it's reasonable to expect a whole lot more coming back, and more major league ready guys as well.

Just my thoughts.

[wildcard]

39 minutes ago, 7Mo said:

Good post but let me argue with you about one point.

When you say the O's are unlikely to sign even their stars to contracts of 4-5 years or longer, that makes sense. We talk so much about the Rays on this board. That's their model and they execute it very, very well. But I think we need to remember that that's not the background Elias came through. The Cards have changed their operations significantly since Elias was there but when he was, they did lock up guys. The Astros have tried to keep the majority of their core. And notwithstanding the doubts of many about whether the brothers will spend money, the O's will clearly have money available if they choose to lock guys up.

I would guess the O's eventually wind up some kind of hybrid of all of those. The "pipeline of talent" is something we have heard enough that I think Elias will always churn the roster, and deal most before any kind of long term contract. But I think there may be exceptions. Probably not many. 

But remember, when you're trading a talent, Means as an example, the return should help quickly. When the Rays traded Blake Snell to the Padres, they got 4 players back headlined by Luis Patina who has and will pitch at the MLB level this year. Of the other 3, one was Cole Wilcox who was a third round pick but mocked as a first rounder for a while. 

To this point, Elias hasn't traded a high value guy. You're just not going to get a big return for Bundy, Iglesias, Cobb, etc. But when those trades become Mullins or Means, it's reasonable to expect a whole lot more coming back, and more major league ready guys as well.

Just my thoughts.

Elias understands the revenue profile of the Orioles as a mid market team.   They don't have the revenue base of the Astros or the Cards. That is why he decided on a rebuild instead of buying expensive FAs like the Astros, Boston and the Yankees  have done.    He just doesn't have to revenue to compete in that manner.  That is why he leans more toward the Tampa model though he may be able to have a higher payroll than Tampa overall.

Means and Adley will be at or close to 30 when they are eligible for free agency.  I think long term extensions are unlikely for them from the O's.   If there are exceptions it might be Grayson and DL though the risk of signing pitchers long term may prevent Elias from going that direction IMO.