Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[Ruzious]

Well, the Braves did trade for someone kinda similar to Trey - going for Joc Pederson - though Pederson's having an awful year.  Braves give up 2019 24th round pick Bryce Ball - a huge 1st baseman who pleasantly surprised them but has been ordinary at best this year in A ball at 23 and likely did not fit into their plans.  

[Roll Tide]

5 hours ago, Ruzious said:

Well, the Braves did trade for someone kinda similar to Trey - going for Joc Pederson - though Pederson's having an awful year.  Braves give up 2019 24th round pick Bryce Ball - a huge 1st baseman who pleasantly surprised them but has been ordinary at best this year in A ball at 23 and likely did not fit into their plans.  

If that’s what you’d get for Trey we are better off keeping him. I doubt that guy made the top 100 in the Braves system.

[NelsonCruuuuuz]

2 hours ago, Roll Tide said:

If that’s what you’d get for Trey we are better off keeping him. I doubt that guy made the top 100 in the Braves system.

If they trade Mancini for anything less than premium talent (and certainly not close to this return), people will check out on the Os once and for all IMO. Some things in life are more important than unloading salary to prep the team for sale. 

[Frobby]

7 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

If they trade Mancini for anything less than premium talent (and certainly not close to this return), people will check out on the Os once and for all IMO. Some things in life are more important than unloading salary to prep the team for sale. 

I don’t think Trey brings back premium talent, depending what you mean by that  term.   But he’d bring back a lot more than Joc Pederson.

[wildcard]

A lot depends on the contract that Trey will sign with the O's.  How many years and how much money.    The O's can't let Trey walk for nothing after the 2022 season.  They have to sign him or trade him.   He does not have to be traded or signed by the deadline this year but by opening day 2022 something has to be done.

The Mundy factor will become clear as the season go on.   He appears ready for a promotion to AA.   He is moving up the O's minors leagues fast.   He plays the same positions as Trey.  When thinking of  a multi year contract for Trey, Mundy could be a factor.

r

[Frobby]

6 minutes ago, wildcard said:

A lot depends on the contract that Trey will sign with the O's.  How many years and how much money.    The O's can't let Trey walk for nothing after the 2022 season.  They have to sign him or trade him.   He does not have to be traded or signed by the deadline this year but by opening day 2022 something has to be done.

The Mundy factor will become clear as the season go on.   He appears ready for a promotion to AA.   He is moving up the O's minors leagues fast.   He plays the same positions as Trey.  When thinking of  a multi year contract for Trey, Mundy could be a factor.

Mundy has done well, but I’m not making any plans around him.   

[wildcard]

34 minutes ago, Frobby said:

Mundy has done well, but I’m not making any plans around him.   

Let's say Mundy gets promoted to AA on Monday.   What if he hits 10 homers and has a 900 OPS in the next month.   Do they promote him to AAA in mid August?  Is Trey signed at that time?

It appears that the O's have not found the level that challenges Mundy yet.

Mundy was a undrafted FA last year in a year that had 5 draft rounds.   If they had 20 rounds he would probably have been drafted.   

We have to remember how much of a crap shoot the draft is.  The O's All-Star Centerfield Cedric Mullins was draft on the 13th round of the 2015  draft from Campbell University.    

It might be a good idea to wait on trading or signing Trey until the off season when they have a better idea what they have in Mundy.

[Roll Tide]

57 minutes ago, NelsonCruuuuuz said:

If they trade Mancini for anything less than premium talent (and certainly not close to this return), people will check out on the Os once and for all IMO. Some things in life are more important than unloading salary to prep the team for sale. 

Unless John Angelos is a bold face liar I don’t think they have any intention of selling the birds. 
 

Many of us wished that Peter would have sold over the years. 

[waroriole]

13 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Let's say Mundy gets promoted to AA on Monday.   What if he hits 10 homers and has a 900 OPS in the next month.   Do they promote him to AAA in mid August?  Is Trey signed at that time?

It appears that the O's have not found the level that challenges Mundy yet.

Mundy was a undrafted FA last year in a year that had 5 draft rounds.   If they had 20 rounds he would probably have been drafted.   

We have to remember how much of a crap shoot the draft is.  The O's All-Star Centerfield Cedric Mullins was draft on the 13th round of the 2015  draft from Campbell University.    

It might be a good idea to wait on trading or signing Trey until the off season when they have a better idea what they have in Mundy.

Mundy is a non-factor in any Mancini trade discussions. If he’s traded, then Mountcastle is the 1B. End of discussion 

[wildcard]

5 minutes ago, waroriole said:

Mundy is a non-factor in any Mancini trade discussions. If he’s traded, then Mountcastle is the 1B. End of discussion 

Mountcastle is the O's 1B now.   Trey is the DH/1B with his health history and his need for rest.  Mundy is a DH/1B also.

[waroriole]

5 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Mountcastle is the O's 1B now.   Trey is the DH/1B with his health history and his need for rest.  Mundy is a DH/1B also.

Anyone can be a DH. It’s not a position. With the injuries we get in the OF, it doesn’t hurt to leave that spot open to rotate people through. 
 

If Mundy becomes a ML hitter that’s great. But I’m not going to pencil someone into the lineup after 200 ABs in the minors. He’s not even at AA. And it’s not like he’s crushing A+. He’s got an .877 OPS as a 23 y/o 1B. 

[wildcard]

1 minute ago, waroriole said:

Anyone can be a DH. It’s not a position. With the injuries we get in the OF, it doesn’t hurt to leave that spot open to rotate people through. 
 

If Mundy becomes a ML hitter that’s great. But I’m not going to pencil someone into the lineup after 200 ABs in the minors. He’s not even at AA. 

I don't care if they use crayon, the O's don't know what they have in Mundy yet.  But he is hitting like crazy and ready for a shot at AA.  They will know more in two months.

[waroriole]

Just now, wildcard said:

I don't care if they use crayon, the O's don't know what they have in Mundy yet.  But he is hitting like crazy and ready for a shot at AA.  They will know more in two months.

A 23 y/o 1B with an .877 OPS at A+ is not “hitting like crazy.”

[Frobby]

14 minutes ago, wildcard said:

Let's say Mundy gets promoted to AA on Monday.   What if he hits 10 homers and has a 900 OPS in the next month.   Do they promote him to AAA in mid August?  Is Trey signed at that time?

It appears that the O's have not found the level that challenges Mundy yet.

Mundy was a undrafted FA last year in a year that had 5 draft rounds.   If they had 20 rounds he would probably have been drafted.   

We have to remember how much of a crap shoot the draft is.  The O's All-Star Centerfield Cedric Mullins was draft on the 13th round of the 2015  draft from Campbell University.    

It might be a good idea to wait on trading or signing Trey until the off season when they have a better idea what they have in Mundy.

I think you are living in a fantasy land.  Not that I don’t have some hopes for Mundy.   I fully appreciate that he has some chance to become a major league player, and that we shouldn’t be prejudiced by the fact that he went undrafted in a five-round draft.   

That said, the streets are littered with guys who hit .900 OPS for 32 games in Hi A but stalled out at higher levels.   And reports from Tony are that Mundy is a 20 runner, and he’s undersized for a 1B.   He’s going to need to bring a lot of bat to have value.   

I’d say the odds are almost zero that Mundy ends this season in AAA.   His odds of getting to AA this season are decent, but it may not happen that quickly.   I would not say that Mundy is “not being challenged” in Hi A.   His BA has dropped by 50 points compared to low A, and his OBP has dropped by more than 100 points.   His K rate has gone from 15% in low A to 28% in Hi A.   He’s still hitting for a lot of power, which is what has his OPS over .900.   I think the O’s will continue to let him work at Hi A a bit longer.   If he does get promoted again, we’ll see what that adjustment is like for him.   We certainly don’t want to see another 50 point drop in BA and 100 point drop in OBP.

 

[wildcard]

44 minutes ago, waroriole said:

A 23 y/o 1B with an .877 OPS at A+ is not “hitting like crazy.”

Mundy has a 921 OPS in 127 at bats and 10 homers at A+ ball.  That is hitting like crazy.