Connolly: Trade Deadline thoughts

[Can_of_corn]

3 minutes ago, owknows said:

Yes. And played at between 250 and 270. 

Boog wasn't exactly fast.

The point being, there's a place for big slow guys that can smack the ball around.

Typically it's 1B.   If Mundy can scoop... he'll find a home.

But 6'0" isn't  big for a 1B.  Ideally you'd like a bit more length over there.

[Can_of_corn]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I made a comment and I justified it, you’re welcome to disagree if you wish. I stand by my thought that his performance in the home run derby increased his visibility and marketability, and possibly his trade value. We shall see

No we won't.

How in the world are we going to know if the home run derby was in any way a factor going forward?

[owknows]

1 minute ago, Can_of_corn said:

But 6'0" isn't  big for a 1B.  Ideally you'd like a bit more length over there.

Never been a big measuring tape and stopwatch guy. 

is 6'0" with long arms better than 6'3" with short arms?

Play 'em and see what they've got.

[Frobby]

1 minute ago, Philip said:

I made a comment and I justified it, you’re welcome to disagree if you wish. I stand by my thought that his performance in the home run derby increased his visibility and marketability, and possibly his trade value. We shall see

How will we see?    Do you think a GM is going to say, “we weren’t too interested, but once we watched the home run derby….”?  Even assuming it had some effect (which I tend to doubt), we will never know it.   

[Just Regular]

3 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

Elias doesn't strike me as the type to want to extend someone like Mancini.  If word came out that was the case I'd wonder if ownership was instigating it.

I believe the Boras Corp's label was Prestige Value for this sort of thing - baseball execs probably weren't even worthy to put eyes on those binder pages for "ownership-level" decisions.

SteveA's great threads on the 1970 World Series re-broadcast that very boring covid offseason got me to the comp Boog Powell was Freddie Freeman, so let's watch Mundy slug a bit more first.

Someone please correct me if I'm wrong, but the very covid reason I am willing to give 2021 college senior draftees the benefit of the doubt is the same as why I keep Mundy at arm's length.   He was a regular 21-year-old NCAA junior in 2019's standard size draft who had OPS'd 1.000, but no takers then, right?

[wildcard]

10 minutes ago, Can_of_corn said:

But 6'0" isn't  big for a 1B.  Ideally you'd like a bit more length over there.

6'0" is fine for a DH.

[interloper]

A few weeks ago I was dead certain that Elias would trade Mancini. Now I feel more and more like they are going to hold. In fact I feel like it would be kind of a shocker if he's dealt. I'm not sure what exactly changed my mind, it's just a gut feeling. 

One read on holding Mancini is that the O's basically chicken out with regards to the PR hit. And that would be a fair read and one that I wouldn't argue about, though it's of course impossible to know for sure.

Another read would be that they really do consider him to be a team glue guy who is beneficial not only to the clubhouse but to the lineup and just having a steady bat in there. Of course, it's very easy to simply be cynical of that idea. 

Like most decisions, it will be a combination of the two. He's valuable to the organization, he helps your young guys, he probably won't bring a ton back in a trade, and the perceived PR hit would be enormous. For those reasons, I think he stays or is traded in the offseason so that you don't have to trade him in the middle of his comeback season. 

Also - I really think the O's want him to win Comeback Player of the Year as an Oriole, as silly as that might be to factor into your baseball decisions. 

[Ohfan67]

Mancini's OPS in June was .612. He didn't play last year because of cancer. He has basically zero defensive value. I really, really like Mancini, but I don't think he has nearly as much trade value as some posters seem to think. If I was a GM, I would worry about Mancini wearing down in the second half and I would worry about what he will cost relative to production next year. Add in the feel good value Mancini has to the Orioles and I just don't see a Mancini trade happening during this season. Maybe in the off season if he has a good second half, but I still don't think Mancini will bring back a significant return. 

[7Mo]

1 hour ago, Ohfan67 said:

Mancini's OPS in June was .612. He didn't play last year because of cancer. He has basically zero defensive value. I really, really like Mancini, but I don't think he has nearly as much trade value as some posters seem to think. If I was a GM, I would worry about Mancini wearing down in the second half and I would worry about what he will cost relative to production next year. Add in the feel good value Mancini has to the Orioles and I just don't see a Mancini trade happening during this season. Maybe in the off season if he has a good second half, but I still don't think Mancini will bring back a significant return. 

I was someone who thought Mancini would bring back good value. After the last few weeks, unfortunately, I'm trending more toward your opinion above. 

[Three Run Homer]

4 hours ago, SteveA said:

Wow, maybe we have the next Chito Martinez on our hands!

In context, Mundy is indeed hitting the snot out of the ball at Aberdeen.  His OPS would rank 8th in the league and his SLG would rank 4th in the league if he had enough at bats to qualify.  And remember that Aberdeen is a pitcher's park.  Hitting 10 home runs in 130-something at bats at Aberdeen is quite impressive, especially for a first-year pro.   He's worth keeping an eye on.

I don't think he's factoring into the O's decision about Trey Mancini just yet, though.  

[Philip]

3 hours ago, Frobby said:

How will we see?    Do you think a GM is going to say, “we weren’t too interested, but once we watched the home run derby….”?  Even assuming it had some effect (which I tend to doubt), we will never know it.   

What I mean is we will see the result. Either Mancini will be traded or he won’t be.

[PHRESH]

4 hours ago, Can_of_corn said:

But 6'0" isn't  big for a 1B.  Ideally you'd like a bit more length over there.

Possible solution. 

(please disregard the word "torture") 

[OriolesMagic83]

I can't believe a reporter asked Mancini if he wanted to stay in Baltimore.  I assume they were thinking he would say "I hate it here.  What's taking so long to trade me?  I want to be anywhere but here."

[OriolesMagic83]

4 hours ago, owknows said:

Yes. And played at between 250 and 270. 

Boog wasn't exactly fast.

The point being, there's a place for big slow guys that can smack the ball around.

Typically it's 1B.   If Mundy can scoop... he'll find a home.

I thought that place was DH

[Oriole1940]

I always hear how bad Trey is defensively.  Well, I checked the last 3 years, excluding 2020 which I did not find.   AT 1st base 2018, 992% Fielding 363 Innings.  2019 1st base  Fielding  1.000%  449 innings.  2021 so far, 997%  Fielding  455 innings.  Sounds good to me.  Yes,  when they stuck him in the outfield, he had a learning curve, but he did his best like the loyal soldier he is.